TX/OK Drought and the 2026 Tornado Season

[Randy Zipser]

Attached is an article published today (2026-02-09) from an academic website about the ongoing drought in Texas and Oklahoma, which they partly attribute to the current La Nina climatic cycle. What effect might this drought have on the upcoming 2026 tornado season in Tornado Alley? Any thoughts for discussion?

Sixth year of drought in Texas and Oklahoma leaves ranchers bracing for another harsh summer

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I've seen folks talk about how the transition to El Nino is coming and should fix all the drought problems in the Southern Plains. We had that snow/ice storm that dumped precip across a large swath, but we're facing mid February with no real notable precip outside of that so far. Seems like we either get some rain in the next month or we're going to be spending March like 2011 with fires in the southern plains. Hopefully I am worrying for nothing

 

[Warren Faidley]

After doing this for 38 years, I don't have faith in any long range forecast. Too many multi-scale factors that ultimately determine what happens. A fantastic upper air set-up can be nixed by poor RH return or a strong cap can ruin things for days. It ultimately comes down to being able to chase every single potential set-up across vast regions, which is not realistic for most of us.