Tropical Depression One

[Brian Emfinger]

Dont think anyone has posted anything about it yet:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DOES NOT FORM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA.

The gfs brings that area of low pressure up along the eastern Yucatan penisula coast and out into the central Gulf Of Mexico and from there into Florida by Tuesday. Looks like it probably will gain depression status and maybe even weak Tropical Storm status before it gets to Florida. After crossing Florida the gfs shows it strengthening as it runs along the eastern seaboard.

Is Accuweather forecasting this as their Cat 5 hitting NYC yet? :lol:

 

[Adam Atkins]

Yeah I'm surprised no discussion about the 2006 season (2nd half ). There were record numbers of hits on Stormtrack if I recall last year during the active season. Guidance shows this storm developing into Huricane Alberto and crossing into the GoM.

 

[B Ozanne]

I think I erased all my links from last hurricane season, what guidance is showing this thing as a hurricane? That would be interesting.

Anyone care to do an over/under on when New Orleans gets its first evacuation of the season? I'll set the date at August 15th.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

I think I erased all my links from last hurricane season, what guidance is showing this thing as a hurricane? That would be interesting.

Anyone care to do an over/under on when New Orleans gets its first evacuation of the season? I'll set the date at August 15th.
[/b]

I thought AccuWeather let us know that New Orleans was relatively safe for this season??

Anywho, I'll go with September 10th for the first evacuation.

Pat

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm not boarding up the windows yet, but the GFDL has a 100 knot hurricane passing by Cape Cod and the Islands on the 14th.

 

[Marc Austin]

I'll definitely have to keep my eyes on this one as it may pass over Gainesville, FL where I live during this coming week. If anything developes, I'll post some damage picks on the reports forum. I don't want anything too strong, but it would be nice to have a storm, maybe some feeder band tornadoes in central and southern FL! We'll have to see how this pans out over the next few days. By Monday, the projected path will probably take it over New Orleans... Let's hope not... Florida could use the rain.

 

[mrobinett]

but it would be nice to have a storm, maybe some feeder band tornadoes in central and southern FL!
[/b]

Not gonna happen, Marc. Feeder band tornadoes are almost impossible to spot.
Mike

 

[Brian Emfinger]

well it has made tropical depression (one) status...there are some differences in which direction this system will head once into the G.o.M.

"LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL
RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST."

It still looks like the Florida and then offshore up the Atlantic Coast is most likely

 

[Brian Emfinger]

Here are some of my links if any of you have lost yours or havent updated:

http://www.realclearwx.com/hurricane.htm

pm if you have more and i will add them!

 

[Marc Austin]

Not gonna happen, Marc. Feeder band tornadoes are almost impossible to spot.
Mike[/b]

Hey, just because they're almost impossible to spot doesn't mean they are impossible to spot. I'm just a dreamer that's all. Gotta be optomistic about these things...
No really... we do need the rain.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I will be in Lake Mary, FL (north orlando) for this storm. It may go north of me but maybe see some decent gusts from the feeder bands if it strengthens and comes this way...I will let you all know if I see anything.

 

[B Ozanne]

If winds stay low and this thing tracks over FL it could bring some very beneficial rain. Ok, the rain might be a bit excessive, but Florida still needs whatever water they can get.

 

[mrobinett]

Gotta be optomistic about these things...

[/b]

After the chase season I just had, its real hard to be optimistic about the weather.
Weather blows!!

 

[Marc Austin]

Weather blows!![/b]

As would be expected from a Hurricane.
According to these recent model runs, the track would take it right over north central FL, where I live, so if anything of note happens, I will certainly post. I must remind you all of the path that Charley in 2004 took though. The forecast called for it coming over our area for a week straight and the day it ws to make landfall, it hit southern FL. I was so pissed, but actually that was a very horrible hurricane and it destroyed quite a bit of property. If this thing came into Cedar Key, FL as a storm like Charley... well you can just say goodbye to Cedar Key because the storm surge would sweep the entire island clean. I'm also not liking the couple of models that now take this storm into LA closer to the end of this week. Even if the storm remains under hurricane strength, they do not need all the rain. The area is still very flood prone and I am certain cleanup is still ongoing in the city of New Orleans. This is a very interesting and very early system and it will be interesting to watch the next few days as these things sometimes have a mind of their own. Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be another Wilma scenario where the storm goes from a low-end hurricane to a CAT 5 within one day! What an amazing weather pheonomenon that was. Anyway, we'll just keep our eyes peeled.

 

[rdale]

This won't be a Wilma.

And there is a FCST thread in the chase room.