Tropical Depression One

[Doug_Kiesling]

Right now the models are still trying to come together on this setup. I woke up yesterday in Sheridan WY, chased the WY tornado setup, and then drove all the way home last night back to Minneapolis. I'm still trying to forecast the chase for this system but Marc is right about the Charley event. This thing could move past Cuba and explode tomorrow. It could wipe out Cedar Key or put a world of hurt on the Tampa and St. Pete area.

Or, it could get ripped apart and race off into the Atlantic as other models are hinting at.

Worse case is that it hits the New Orleans area like tropical storm Allison did in Houston.

 

[Mike Theiss]

My Guess on the future of TD 1 as 11pm June 10th:
Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall anywhere from Cedar Key to St. Marks, Florida with a pressure of 998-1000mb.


Alberto WILL NOT explode like Charley did and WILL NOT "Wipe Out" anyone as the "Weather Paparazzi" suggests. Also, Alberto WILL NOT bring a "World of Hurt" to Florida. In fact, Alberto will bring some much needed rain to Florida and put out the fires that have been burning Florida for months.

Let's save the Doomsday scenarios for August/September/and Early October.

 

[Marc Austin]

Agreed Mike, but stranger things have happened during Hurricane Season. All it takes is lighter southwesterly shear over the Gulf, making a much more favorable strengthening environment for TD1. But you're right, FL needs rain, even if it means we get a little wind along with it.

 

[mrobinett]

Ill make sure I take my camera gear out on the route on Monday, I deliver to Cedar Key.
Cedar Key has seen worse, a hurricane in 1898 was probably THE worst theyve seen so far.

 

[Marc Austin]

Ill make sure I take my camera gear out on the route on Monday, I deliver to Cedar Key.
Cedar Key has seen worse, a hurricane in 1898 was probably THE worst theyve seen so far.
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Good luck Mike, maybe you'll see some big waves or somethin'! Actually... I'll be sitting here in Gainesville working during the rainstorm "Alberto", so at least you'll be near the coast where the most, if any action is going to take place. Have fun!

 

[Mike Theiss]

Marc,

I won't be chasing this one. Just not worth it right now. Good luck in Gainsville, I hope you get some needed rain.

Mike