Thoughts on Overall Severe Pattern (March)

[Alex Lamers]

OK lots of individual threads for individual events so I want some thoughts on the overall pattern...what you think it is capable of producing through mid March.

I'm thinking this weekend or beyond for a better severe weather threat. Right now it appears as though the waves will be in quick succession so the northward flow of moisture will be frequently interrupted. The extended looks to feature more of a permanently established southerly flow up the center of the CONUS.

March could go down as coming in like a lion if these lows start kicking out severe weather events. I always thought the early Spring this year would be active, so who knows, maybe the overall flow pattern will last into April.

Thoughts? Anyone?

 

[Michael Auker]

The last March I remember having such an active beginning was in 1997. March hasn't really been that active for a while now...compared with the early to mid 1900's...when major tornado outbreaks frequently occurred in March. 1976 was the last year that was really active...other than the moderately active March years of 1984, 1990, 1991, 1997, and 1998.

 

[David Drummond]

Yeah March hasn't really been all that remarkable in my recent memory. I will say, and have been saying for a few days now to my partner, sometime this week I expect to see a tornado outbreak somewhere in the U.S. I somewhat suspect in the vicinity of the Arkansas region, but I could be off by 1 state one way or another. Of course, we can see if that passes come the end of the week. :wink:

 

[George Tincher]

Judging by how active the models are, it looks like May 2003 all over again, with system after system. And what's remarkable for March is that it appears for the most part that the Gulf will remain open.

Will we someday be talking about "The Eleven Days of March" like we did May 2003? LOL. I guess only time will tell. I don't want to even look too much past this week's possibilities. But I will say I prefer to see the models showing activity than nothing.

 

[Tony Lyza]

This pattern, with wave after wave after wave after wave of severe weather/tornadoes, is like a reincarnation of May 2003 to me. However, take a look at 3/12, 3/20, and 3/26/76.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

From what I remember about last year was that the gulf was having a terrible time opening up even midway through the season...Maybee this pattern will be more favorable in that respect.

 

[David Drummond]

Indeed, not only was getting GOM water up in the plains, it was having a hard time being warm enough, given all the massive cold fronts that swept through last year, some all the way to the Yucatan!

We didn't have much in the way of winter this season in the Southern Plains. We didn't have a bunch of cold fronts sweeping through all the way out into the Gulf. The water temps down there are higher than they were last year if memory serves. The ground temps in the souther plains are certainly warmer than usual for this time of year. We have been having above average, even record temps.

I just have a feeling all of this is going to contribute to a significant severe weather season this year.

 

[Joe Nield]

Generally, through the winter, it has been the rule that once a pattern change occurs, it sticks around for a good four weeks, sometimes a bit longer. This is a pretty abrupt and dramatic pattern shift, and, although there is some indication of the general features becoming more progressive by next week, I expect we'll see some significant episodes this month, much more so than in recent years' Marches.

The lee of the Rockies, normally a preferential area for cyclogenesis, has been pretty darn quiet this winter. Looks like we may start to make up for that over the next few weeks.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Joe Nield
The lee of the Rockies, normally a preferential area for cyclogenesis, has been pretty darn quiet this winter. Looks like we may start to make up for that over the next few weeks.

It needed a break after November. :lol:

I would be encouraged if the "peak" of this southwest flow pattern waited until after this week, which it now appears that it will. Gives Wisconsin a better chance to get in on the action, after the first wave of systems and associated WAA and rainstorms get rid of the snowpack. Besides, my spring break starts March 17th.