Joey Prom
EF1
I have my eyes on the next week in the Northern Great Plains. GFS has been consistently showing good midlevel flow and very strong moisture.
State of the chase season 2020
- Thread starter Todd Lemery
- Start date
- Status
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Yeah, I was gung-ho for a La Nina until we had a weak one in 2018. I honestly did not think it could get worse than that year.
Not sure what it's gonna take to get a season like 2008 (let alone 2004) again.
Paul Sherman
EF2
Which has already been outdone by a Campoesque Nebraska Tornado 1 day later
Jesse Risley
Staff member
I've spent a large part of the last two weeks up there. I will say the GFS has shown this several times previously, but with the exception of the Hemingford 'miracle' in northern Nebraska the other day, we always end up suffering from either lack of good shear or moisture, and on a few of the days that did have potential it seems like the other fail factor was too much interaction from other storms. In that situation the better shear was displaced to the north, and temperature dewpoint spreads were around 30° if you believe the nearest observation, so we'll see if July will turn the tide but I'm not real optimistic at this point although the Canadian border being closed doesn't help matters given that there will probably be a few more beauties north of the border.
Tony Laubach
EF5
I find myself with a week straight off starting Wednesday, and had considered perhaps a quick two/three day trip up north. But yeah, as Jesse mentioned, it seems that every day has ultimately proved fruitless for decent tornadoes minus the Hemingford miracle and the snowball that survived in hell near Santana, KS the day before that. I don't see a huge change in the synoptic pattern that would make me think anything in the coming days would be much different. Sure, you may get a fluke in there somewhere, but without a really big change in the overall pattern, I'd be skeptical to make too far a venture for this week/weekend. Perhaps a Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri setup in NW flow I could get out and back in a day would be worth-while, particularly if I can leave the morning of. But Dakotas may be a stretch in the current regime, and I must admit to be a bit greedy right now having seen my share of structure and hail for the year, I'm gonna be hard-pressed to make a super long drive if a tornado opportunity isn't a decent bet at this point.
Joey Prom
EF1
I would agree with you for the western portion of the Northern GP, but MN is loaded with moisture this year. We recently had a nice supercell go across the southern part of the state, which resulted in my first tornado. NAM is also showing this wed strongly. However, there is still uncertainty about where the embedded shortwave will end up, and thus the position of the warm front/dryline.
Well I think today basically makes enough of a case to say that 2020 will be the year of the high/northern Plains/Midwest/Canada. Another day of visually spectacular tornadic activity in a region far removed from the traditional Plains area.
Here is a taste from a formerly active ST member:
Here is a taste from a formerly active ST member:
Dean Baron
Supporter
Unfortunately this tornado ended up being fatal which puts a damper on the best tornado (and likely strongest tornado) we’ve had in Minnesota since 2010.
I just want to say hats off those of you still out there getting these tornadoes on the 2% days. I have the time, but have been laying low on the storm chasing because of the repeated disappointments prior to now. It just goes to show you that the only way you can guarantee yourself not seeing a tornado is by not going out! I have to get my mojo back!
John Farley
Supporter
All the video and pictures I have seen here or on chaser FB pages from yesterday (7/8) have been from Minnesota, and those were awesome tornadoes. However, there were also several very photogenic ones, albeit mainly landspout tornadoes, in far northeast Colorado as well Some pics and video in the TV news link below. Yesterday just might have been the biggest day of the season for photogenic tornadoes.
www.9news.com
Several tornadoes reported in northeastern Colorado Wednesday evening
One was spotted about 10 miles southeast of Julesburg.
www.9news.com
Drew Terril
Staff member
I totally understand. I've been racking up so many miles with work that I have essentially lost desire to spend my off days on the road, so I didn't even try to get off work when things looked possible. Northern plains are on my bucket list to chase, but I'll never check that box off if I don't take time off work to go up there, which it's hard to justify when already burned out on the road from work.
I am planning to go to Indiana in a month or two on vacation, so I'm hopeful for some late summer/ early fall magic like what happens on occasion. And then there's always second season down my way, which historically I do well in.
Dean Baron
Supporter
Wednesday's tornado in west central MN has officially been rated an EF4. I don't have the stats in front of me but that's gotta be the strongest tornado in the plains this year outside of maybe the tornadoes down along the Red River in OK/TX at the end of April. It's the first EF3+ tornado in Minnesota since 2010.
Staff Note
While I introduced the notion of the tornado event on the 8th as worthy of discussion in this forum (and indeed it is acceptable to discuss how that event impacts the overall quality of the 2020 chase season), from this point on any discussion about the specific meteorology or the details of the tornadoes themselves need to be posted in an EVENT thread for the date, else this thread will drift too far off-topic.
While I introduced the notion of the tornado event on the 8th as worthy of discussion in this forum (and indeed it is acceptable to discuss how that event impacts the overall quality of the 2020 chase season), from this point on any discussion about the specific meteorology or the details of the tornadoes themselves need to be posted in an EVENT thread for the date, else this thread will drift too far off-topic.
Jeff House
Supporter
Models keep going blast furnace death ridge in the 6-15 day, then little kinks develop up North in the 1-7 day. I can't justify that kind of travel for low predictability (3 days out at the time travel decisions have to be made). However I'm happy for those nabbing gems in the rough.
My eyes are set on a possible fall encore. Normally fall is the lesser season. However an average fall might look good against this spring.
Looking way ahead I'm not concerned with ENSO details. Solid Nina can be bullish, but we don't know if this will be more than weak Nina. On the other side, transition TNI, can be bullish with warm 1-2 and still Nina 3-4 and lagging Atmo. Way too early for that kind of speculation. Though thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean, that's splitting hairs 9 months out.
Bottom line: Hobby requires optimism in times like this. No reason to think next year is tanked or helped by ENSO. However mean reversion should give a better year. Also hoping for fall this year!
My eyes are set on a possible fall encore. Normally fall is the lesser season. However an average fall might look good against this spring.
Looking way ahead I'm not concerned with ENSO details. Solid Nina can be bullish, but we don't know if this will be more than weak Nina. On the other side, transition TNI, can be bullish with warm 1-2 and still Nina 3-4 and lagging Atmo. Way too early for that kind of speculation. Though thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean, that's splitting hairs 9 months out.
Bottom line: Hobby requires optimism in times like this. No reason to think next year is tanked or helped by ENSO. However mean reversion should give a better year. Also hoping for fall this year!
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
After briefly establishing itself across the central US this weekend, the ridge again looks to pivot back to the west in weeks 2-3 which should at least keep chasers in the High Plains and Midwest periodically enjoying high risk/high reward NW flow events into the first week of August.
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