Brett Roberts
EF5
Not sure whether this fits best here or in the "worst seasons" thread...
The 2020 season continues to infuriate and stick its finger in the eyes of the chase community in novel ways. May was bad... really bad... but hey, it happens these days (2009, 2012, 2014, 2018). The June 4-9 period then brought a trough to the central and northern Plains with upper flow on the strong end of the distribution for late spring. While the evolution of that trough/cyclone was not optimal, and was complicated by an utterly stupid early June TC, I still couldn't believe as I looked at NWP guidance on June 2-3 that we'd make it through that whole subsequent week without any quality tornado days. It is quite remarkable to go through 5-6 consecutive diurnal cycles in June with reasonable ingredients in place (including a trough of that magnitude, so not just 30-kt shear prayer plays) and come up totally empty handed... not even a rogue quality tor on the fringes of the expected threat area on one of those days?
Now, we're rapidly approaching the end of the traditional Plains season. Only, instead of a death ridge taking over, the pattern over North America continues to be amplified with seasonably strong flow aloft at midlatitudes. The problem is... no matter how many different jet configurations evolve as the weeks go by, the atmosphere is simply allergic to sustained SW flow over the central US. Wavelengths change, cutoffs come and go... the only constant is negative height anomalies along the eastern seaboard. Medium range guidance now points to an unseasonably deep trough setting up over the west coast from about 6/28-7/3 or so. If this were happening 5-8° longitude further east, we'd likely get an anomalous, extended period of legitimate chase opportunities on the High Plains... much like what you'd expect in late May or early June in a year that doesn't suck. But instead, as of now, it appears the Plains will be stuck in the middle of a weak omega block, pissing away our last chance at some redemption. If we're lucky, there might be a day or two next week with opportunities on the NW fringes of the alley in MT/WY and nearby areas.
Personally, I'm at the point where I'd prefer a 600-dm heat dome over the whole central US, rather than a near miss on a once-per-decade early summer chasing stretch. How many more gratuitous middle fingers can the atmosphere possibly shoot us?
The 2020 season continues to infuriate and stick its finger in the eyes of the chase community in novel ways. May was bad... really bad... but hey, it happens these days (2009, 2012, 2014, 2018). The June 4-9 period then brought a trough to the central and northern Plains with upper flow on the strong end of the distribution for late spring. While the evolution of that trough/cyclone was not optimal, and was complicated by an utterly stupid early June TC, I still couldn't believe as I looked at NWP guidance on June 2-3 that we'd make it through that whole subsequent week without any quality tornado days. It is quite remarkable to go through 5-6 consecutive diurnal cycles in June with reasonable ingredients in place (including a trough of that magnitude, so not just 30-kt shear prayer plays) and come up totally empty handed... not even a rogue quality tor on the fringes of the expected threat area on one of those days?
Now, we're rapidly approaching the end of the traditional Plains season. Only, instead of a death ridge taking over, the pattern over North America continues to be amplified with seasonably strong flow aloft at midlatitudes. The problem is... no matter how many different jet configurations evolve as the weeks go by, the atmosphere is simply allergic to sustained SW flow over the central US. Wavelengths change, cutoffs come and go... the only constant is negative height anomalies along the eastern seaboard. Medium range guidance now points to an unseasonably deep trough setting up over the west coast from about 6/28-7/3 or so. If this were happening 5-8° longitude further east, we'd likely get an anomalous, extended period of legitimate chase opportunities on the High Plains... much like what you'd expect in late May or early June in a year that doesn't suck. But instead, as of now, it appears the Plains will be stuck in the middle of a weak omega block, pissing away our last chance at some redemption. If we're lucky, there might be a day or two next week with opportunities on the NW fringes of the alley in MT/WY and nearby areas.
Personally, I'm at the point where I'd prefer a 600-dm heat dome over the whole central US, rather than a near miss on a once-per-decade early summer chasing stretch. How many more gratuitous middle fingers can the atmosphere possibly shoot us?
