SPC Outlooks

[Scott Overpeck]

Jason, I'd say you have the right idea on the first case. The second is a bit more unclear. I agree there is a high concentration of hail and wind reports with some tornado reports. As I understand...high risks generally are reserved for extreme events with violent tors and >80mph damaging winds. Not sure if that case fits the extreme wind/hail reports they look for. Certainly have the concentration for a high risk...but doesn't seem to be enough extreme severe reports. The tornado reports do not fit in the high risk. So on that...in hindsight...perhaps they could have gone with a high risk but maybe the mdt was better since there were not may violent tors. If anything, they needed to extend the mdt risk farther east, but splitting hairs. Just my 2 cents worth.

For those interested, here's a link to SPC's Outlook criteria:
SPC Outlook Criteria

 

[Nick Smith]

Here's those two outlooks above overlayed onto the corresponding severe weather reports maps.

 

[Paul Knightley]

How can you exactly verify these forecasts though?! Surely the number of reports depends on many non-meteorological factors, mainly the number of people who are there to actually report. The number of expected reports is surely just a guideline to try to convey how extensive the SPC expect the severe threat to be.

The verification of any weather forecast is highly problematic - things like temperature are fairly easy to verify, but only if you do a spot forecast. Once you start forecasting for a region, which temperature would you take to be the one you verify?