• A friendly and periodic reminder of the rules we use for fostering high SNR and quality conversation and interaction at Stormtrack: Forum rules

    P.S. - Nothing specific happened to prompt this message! No one is in trouble, there are no flame wars in effect, nor any inappropriate conversation ongoing. This is being posted sitewide as a casual refresher.

OIL IMPACT DISCUSSION

The current US cost of Gasoline is $2.61 What will the national average be by next weekend?

  • Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
Status
Not open for further replies.
If you've read "Long Emergency", his prophesy is starting to come true.

Today was the first time in my life I've seen a armed police officer with an assault rifle standing guard at a busy gas station. Makes me glad I live in the cornbelt and not in a big ol' city.
:!: :!: :!:
Where was that gas station, Andrew? That's nuts. Was this something you saw in person, or was it on TV in the hurricane area?
 
This shows the Port Fourchon and LOOP oil terminals around the estimated time they were getting max wind.
oil.gif


This shows the Florida State University T1 site within 20 minutes of the time that they reported 78-81 mph with gusts to 102-105 mph.
t1.gif


As you can see, they are both in comparable quadrants and radii from the center. The terminals appeared to be between double-eyewall structures, and since I'm not a tropical cyclone expert I'm not sure what effect that would have on the surface winds. However I think it's a safe bet that the oil terminals saw at least an equivalent speed, and perhaps even more considering the reduced friction and stronger storm state two hours earlier. The LOOP terminal probably got stronger winds as it was even closer to the center.

My guess offhand is that Port Fourchon got gusts to 120 mph and perhaps 140 mph at LOOP.

I'd imagine right now that the oil companies are gearing up to fly out there to assess the damage.

Tim
 
Originally posted by Shannon Vasquez+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Shannon Vasquez)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Geil
If you've read \"Long Emergency\", his prophesy is starting to come true.

Today was the first time in my life I've seen a armed police officer with an assault rifle standing guard at a busy gas station. Makes me glad I live in the cornbelt and not in a big ol' city.
:!: :!: :!:
Where was that gas station, Andrew? That's nuts. Was this something you saw in person, or was it on TV in the hurricane area?[/b]

In person, in central Illinois. During the lunch noon hour; in part, I think it was due to the gas station was in a bad place to deal with heavy traffic. The cops were out doing traffic, and one of them was sitting on the bumper of his car with an assault rifle watching people. Given that its a pretty warm day, I can imagine tempers are loose.
 
Reminds me of something the Saudi ambassador one said. He said that Saudi Arabia and OPEC could easily pump all the oil america needs with no problem but that America doesn't have the refinery capacity to convert such oil.

Of course, this would be irrelevant if the problem was:

- Refinery capacity intact

-500,000 or so b/d knocked out

In that case, we'd actually have a refinery surplus, and the US clearly has no problem importing oil.
 
Interesting -- oil is only at $67. Who would have ever thought? Also gas prices are "normal" today, though I noticed the station was pretty busy.

I think I'm going to have to find a good book on futures trading, as the dynamics here are more complex than I thought. All the writing is on the wall for a price hike, but it's still cheap after the disaster. It's really puzzling!

Tim
 
I was expecting it to jump up as well. It is hard to believe that prices are still the same.
I figured the major oil companies would have jumped at a chance like this to raise the price.
 
I also find it very interesting (and welcoming!). I was expecting at least a $0.10 rise in gas prices, but most around where I live (Norman) haven't gone up at all today.
 
In the last two hours, the gas prices across the City of Lubbock, TX have risen on average 20-25 cents, averaging $2.74 to $2.79 up from around $2.54/gal.

As most of you regulars here know, I live about 35 miles sw of Lubbock in a small town, all station in town have also gone up. They were $2.54-$2.55 and in the last two hours have gone up to $2.77 to $2.99/gal. The sole exception is the two Allsups Convenience Stores here that have remained at $2.55 so far. Both of them have lines of cars two blocks long getting gas.

The station I chase for Newschannel 11 is reporting the expect prices in Lubbock to be at $3.00/gal + by tomorrow here according to local market analysts. :shock:
 
Also in Lubbock. Lines at gas stations are enormous. Also hearing local reports of $3/gallon by tomorrow, up from $2.54.
 
Just filled up at $2.54/gal here in Glenpool, OK. Rumors are the stations in town are going to run out of gas. The lines here resembled 9/11.

EDIT: Supposedly prices are going to remain steady here until 9pm. That's when they are expected to jump.
 
Filled up at $2.54/gallon today in Charleston, WV. Now I have to decide whether or not to use that tank of gas on a big chase tomorrow.

I still have five gallons of spare gas from Ivan last year. I got it in northeastern Georgia for around $1.29/gallon or something like that. I've always heard that gas doesn't keep well though, so it's probably lawn mower fuel by now. I guess I could re-refine it and sell it in a few months to pay off my mortgage . . .
 
As soon as I posted my last post, I went out to get pizza and noticed that the closest 7/11 is up around $2.65, though the remainder of the local stations are still $2.47. Lines were 2-3 cars deep but inconsistent.
 
Silly people, helping drive up the demand. I wonder how well prices would be mitigated if people weren't panicing so much. People are still lined up here; probably because the local news did a story and the newscaster had to say, "Its quite possible that the gas stations will run out of gas."

Fear is worse then reality (even if reality may suck here soon).

If anything good comes of this whole mess, perhaps it will be a good smack across the face of the fat, greedy, self-centered SUV driving American that things need to change. The airline economy is about to crash to the ground by the sounds of things. The very basic "necessities" of life look like they're going to be on the rise. I'm a firm believer in the book "Long Emergency" and some of the consquences that the author there has laid out. Let us hope that if any reprieve comes from this situation, the US is smart enough to start working its way out of it.

Imagine what would happen now if the Middle East and Venezuala said "Screw you USA" and stopped shipping oil.

This country would grind to a halt.
 
No changes here in price ... has been as cheap at $2.52 and I've seen high as $2.69 as usual for regular unleaded ...

Surprising since CT has one of the highest gas taxes and also is the richest state in the nation ... weird ... maybe it'll hit tomorrow
 
If anything good comes of this whole mess, perhaps it will be a good smack across the face of the fat, greedy, self-centered SUV driving American that things need to change.

I don't even own an SUV and I'm offended by your statement. How is driving an SUV to work 4 miles a day worse than someone driving a car to work 60 miles per day? The car owner uses far more gas in than the SUV owner...

I do agree that people may be driving up the demand unnecessarily tonight. I haven't seen much on the news about it, but I haven't really paid attn to the local news, so...
 
If you are offended by my statement, then thats too bad. I don't mean to offend, I merely make statements based on my observations and personal experience.

Ninety percent of the people I know who own SUVs have no real "valid" use for them. When I say valid, I mean severe driving, serious offroading, rescue/police type work, mega-large family, etc. I have yet to find a reason why someone in central Illinois needs a Hummer to commute to work and back. I drive a small passenger car, and I do pretty well for the four times a year it snows bad.

I am offended by the people who do commute 60 miles to work as well. The very way we live as a society needs to change. Otherwise, this will only continue to get worse.
 
Well I own an SUV and I drive 45-60 miles one way to work.
I must be the devil!!! AAGGHHHH!!!!!

Life Happens. Deal with it and quit judging people.
 
the average price here in the detroit area are around $2.75, with prices as high as $2.99. Today on the news they reported that several citgo area gas stations had recieved notices from suppliers saying that they would not be able to recieve anymore gasoline restocks until further notice...
 
I've been looking at prices for the last 2-3 weeks, and I can say I wasn't shocked by the minor increase. The market is fueled heavily by spectulation, and three things happened today to counter Katrina.

1) Japan exploring more refineries and suggesting a plan to increase oil capacity

2) OPEC exploring options to increase output

3) President Bush thinking about tapping into the oil reserves

Add to this that I read something that demand has gone up 1.4% from last year when oil was just under $50/barrel. The supply isn't the problem, speculation is.

What needs to be the focus is to look at the gasoline price. That price is up 18 cents/gallon in the past two weeks and 13 cents up on Monday.

So if gas is up 10 cents on Tuesday or more (the price reflected after Monday is most likely not the price of the gas your are getting when the prices go up by Tuesday), the gas stations are bordering on price gouging no matter the tax. That's why I don't expect gas to be $3.00/gallon by the weekend unless we see another jump like today, because of the threat of lawyers going after stations for price gouging. They're already at work on the Gulf Coast.

The refining of the oil is the problem, not the oil itself, so wholesale gas prices will be the determining factor.

It is still $2.64 a gallon everywhere in Manhattan, KS. I expect it to be around $2.70-$2.75 tomorrow here.
 
After doing research on some of these refineries in the hurricane path, I have to wonder if the only reason we haven't seen a full-fledged price leap is because of the lack of information coming out of there at the moment. Traders are taking a "wait and see" approach because no one really knows what just happened on the coast, but once damage assesment is made, this could be pretty devasting to our energy use and ability to refine oil. Here's a news article from July 29th about a global price spike because of fire at Murphy Oil's Meraux plant:

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/45057.html

Meraux's plant is #56 on the Energy Information Administration's top national refiners list with a capacity of 125,000 bpd, which was directly impacted on Monday. See following links:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/refineries.htm

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...fineries_list_3

In addition to Meraux, we've lost 247,000 bpd out of ConocoPhillips Alliance plant in Belle Chasse, about 20 miles south-southeast of New Orleans which was more directly in the path of extreme winds and storm surge. Alliance is #18 on the national list.

The one I wonder about most is #8, Chevron USA's 325,000 bpd refinery on the coast in Pascagoula, MS. ( http://www.chevron.com/products/about/pascagoula/ ) That's no small amount of oil, and because it's location is 30 miles east of Biloxi, MS which suffered near total devastation from storm surge, one has to wonder how much of that plant is even remaining much less non functional. Hopefully it was far enough east to escape permanent damage, but being right on the coast with no offshore land masses to block the storm surge really makes you wonder.

None of these figures takes into account the numbers of intact refineries that have no power for an indefinite amount of time, mainly west of New Orleans, as well as the status of the offshore oil rigs and Louisiana's Offshore Oil Port. And prices are expected to be moderated by tapping the strategic oil reserve?

I want to be optimistic here, but what are we facing in terms of gasoline and prices? Widespread shortages maybe?

Aaron
 
As of the latest data, wholesale gas prices are up 4 cents/gallon making the total rise since the weekend 17 cents/gallon. I'm thinking by the weekend, we will be seeing prices up 20 cents/gallon from what they were Monday. Maybe more if the market goes anymore out of control.

So that means the average price would be around $2.80/gallon. The price hike from yesterday should not be felt until the prices go up before the weekend. There may be a 10 cent increase from Monday to Tuesday in order to lessen the shock of going up 20 cents all at once.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top