It's around the corner... GIMME YOUR 2004 PREDICTIONS!

[Tim Vasquez]

About the only thing I think that holds any weight are the oscillation indices and maybe the El Nino phase. The strongest parallels I see is with 1993, which saw a neutral ENSO phase and +PNA/-NAO signature, and maybe 1995 (only that it was an El Nino year). So if I was forced to make a forecast I'd characterize it along with those years. These indicators only help establish the general pattern, of course, and have no direct link with storms.

1993 was so-so and 1995 was great, so maybe I will vote positive.

Tim

 

[Matthew Hatton]

I voted above average because there has been alot of cold weather down south and I feel this takes time to retreat. You might end up with many more intense situations with steep temp gradients. Please do correct me if I am wrong with this rather plain explanation! I am no expert - yet anyways

 

[Anthony Kelley]

Alabama averages 22 Tornadoes per year. In 2002 we had 42 and in 2003 we had 40. That is twice our average and they are predicting another active year this year.

 

[Anthony Kelley]

That should have been In 2003 we had 40 tornadoes sorry about that.

 

[Anthony Kelley]

One thing I might mention here. In the southeast we have 2 tornado seasons. We have the normal Spring season and also a secondary season in November and December. We actually have two Severe Wx preparedness weeks cool huh.

 

[Richard Halter]

I expect an above normal year

with a peak of May 22 to May 30 - which happens to coincide with my chase vacation!

seriously, I expect that April through June will be active - though not on the order of the first 11 days of May last year. But there will be a lot of tornados to go around. :shock: :!: