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It's around the corner... GIMME YOUR 2004 PREDICTIONS!

2004...WHAT DO YOU THINK?

  • Votes: 0 0.0%

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Well ya'll, the storm season is right around the corner. Spring will be here before you know it. How do you think this season will be?

2002: BELOW AVERAGE YEAR
2003: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE YEAR
2004: ... AVERAGE YEAR?

I think because of the extreme lack of tornadoes in Oklahoma in 2003 will lead to some violent tornadoes in 2004, what do you think?

NOTE TO ALL MOORE, OK RESIDENTS: Please vacate :x :? :( :!: :arrow: :x

What do the rest of you think?

Isn't it strange that the US has not seen a F5 tornado for over 4 years? Their was almost always at least one per year before. The last official one was May 3, 1999.
 
F5's have always been pretty rare...there have been many times in the past 50 years the US has gone 4 or more years without an F5. I think what might even be more unusual was the 4 years in a row the US had an F5 between 1996 and 1999. Here's a list of F4's and F5's in the US since 1900....

http://www.firedispatcher.com/USF4F5.htm

As far as 2003 being a well above average year, there's no arguing about that as far as total tornadoes in the US it was. But from a chasing standpoint I still don't think it was all that great of a year west of I-35, south of I-70. How many days were there last year with daytime supercells and tornadoes in western KS, western OK, and the TX panhandle? Compared to average was it really that much?
 
I don't really believe you can make confident predicitons about how a storm season wil evolve, but I voted "below average," simply because of the law of averages. Everyone considers 2003 to be such a dynamite year, but what actually happened was all the tornadoes got squeezed into a two-week period, and for a while it seemed that the world was indeed ending. But looking at the numbers from July on, it was pretty calm.

I figure 2004 will be a below average year as far as overall number of tornadoes, while the spacing will be closer to normal. In other words, I don't think they'll be a "10 Days in May" part 2. But I don't really know. Nobody does.

(Shane not Jo, logged in under her name by mistake, DOH)
 
I'm thinking and hoping for an average year this year. you have to remember that for there to be an F5 tornado it has to hit buildings and do F5 damage. We dont know that there wasnt an F5 tornado this year. For all we know some of the tornados during the 10 days of May could have been F5 strength at times, and I bet a couple were. I'm really hoping for a good chase year in western oklahoma, the panhandles, and western KS, since the eastern half got all the action this year, with the exception of a few days, IE the 15th. It's been a long time since there've been some really good events in Western OK and KS, with the exception of May 8 and 9. I'm really hoping for mid and late may to be extremely active in the western parts of KS OK and the Panhandles, its a lot better chase territory, and I'll be out there at that time. Which is good. :lol: :shock: :lol: :D
 
Me again, I'd really like to see a repeat of the following events, mind you without the death and destruction:

June 7 1993 Colton Megawedge
April 26 1991
May 3 1999
April 10 1979
June 15 1992-Supercell of the Century
March 1990-Hesston Day
June 2, 5, 8 1995
June 8th is what a tornado outbreak is supposed to be like, Violent tornados, not moving overly fast, in great chase territory, during the day not night (may 15), and no deaths and very few injuries.
I'd love to chase an outbreak like these. Before I start an uproar, I'm not hoping for the death and destruction like these days brought, with the exception of June 15 1992 and the 1995 outbreaks, I just strive to chase on a high risk day with a great return of at least one tornado that's not racing off at 60mph
 
If the death and destruction could be magically removed, I would love to see the "Tri-State Tornado" happen again. After all, I think that is the only way we'll ever know for sure whether it was one tornado or several.
 
I never worry about whether a year is going to be good or bad. All I'm concerned with is taking what Nature gives me and trying to get all I can out of it. Some of my best chase days were during my worst chase years. For me it's all about trying to figure out individual days and events, regardless of what the overall type of year is.
 
I'm more apt to suggest that it was a single tornado, due to the fact that the damage was almost constant, and violent tornado related. I find it a lot more plausible for there to be one single LONG track violent tornado than several F4-F5 tornados in a row with nearly overlapping tracks. I think it was a once in 1000 year event. Could you imagine chasing that. here's how it would go,

Large tornado on the ground, this is great video
2 hours later
Well the tornado is finally ending. This was getting boring (j/k) That would probably be the most famous tornado video that a person would get, considering the length and size of the tornado.
 
Originally posted by Chris Hayes
I'm more apt to suggest that it was a single tornado, due to the fact that the damage was almost constant, and violent tornado related. I find it a lot more plausible for there to be one single LONG track violent tornado than several F4-F5 tornados in a row with nearly overlapping tracks. I think it was a once in 1000 year event. Could you imagine chasing that. here's how it would go,

Large tornado on the ground, this is great video
2 hours later
Well the tornado is finally ending. This was getting boring (j/k) That would probably be the most famous tornado video that a person would get, considering the length and size of the tornado.

Actually, most people probably would get bored. I've got friends who said they grew bored after 20 minutes with one tornado. But then they'll chase a tornado family for three hours and never want to stop. So is it tornadogenesis people crave?

I'd love a chance to stay with a long track tornado for over an hour. To me, a tornado is a tornado, whether it's 10 in 2 hours, or one for 2 hours. Either would be equally exciting for me.
 
I'm more apt to suggest that it was a single tornado, due to the fact that the damage was almost constant, and violent tornado related. I find it a lot more plausible for there to be one single LONG track violent tornado than several F4-F5 tornados in a row with nearly overlapping tracks. I think it was a once in 1000 year event. Could you imagine chasing that. here's how it would go,

Large tornado on the ground, this is great video
2 hours later
Well the tornado is finally ending. This was getting boring (j/k) That would probably be the most famous tornado video that a person would get, considering the length and size of the tornado.

From what I've read it sounds like the Tri State Tornado would have been pretty much impossible to chase or photograph. It's believed the death toll was so high in part because the cloud base was so low and the funnel was so wide so nobody recognized it as a tornado. Plus it was moving more than 70 mph at times.
 
Re: This Year's Chase Season

I say above average.
Keep this date in mind: 5/4/04. Major severe wx event. No info available on where yet. :idea:
 
Re: This Year's Chase Season

I say above average.
Keep this date in mind: 5/4/04. Major severe wx event. No info available on where yet. :idea:
I have to ask where that date came from. Given that its a Tuesday, though, it had better be within 200 miles of KLAF. :wink: Do you think we could reschedule it for a Saturday??
 
Hello!

My prediction for this Spring will be the following: there will be atleast 500 tornados in the USA this year!! LOL
 
No no.. let's reschedule that one between the 19th and 28th of May, as that is when I will be chasing. :wink:
 
I believe it will be an average year overall but more tornadoes than average will be reported due to the growth of the numbers of storm chasers. I think we all know more eyes and cameras trained on the skys will produce more incredible pictures and video this year, but I would be surprised to see anything close to the crazy Manchester SD stuff.

Jared
 
About the only thing I think that holds any weight are the oscillation indices and maybe the El Nino phase. The strongest parallels I see is with 1993, which saw a neutral ENSO phase and +PNA/-NAO signature, and maybe 1995 (only that it was an El Nino year). So if I was forced to make a forecast I'd characterize it along with those years. These indicators only help establish the general pattern, of course, and have no direct link with storms.

1993 was so-so and 1995 was great, so maybe I will vote positive.

Tim
 
I voted above average because there has been alot of cold weather down south and I feel this takes time to retreat. You might end up with many more intense situations with steep temp gradients. Please do correct me if I am wrong with this rather plain explanation! I am no expert - yet anyways :D
 
Alabama averages 22 Tornadoes per year. In 2002 we had 42 and in 2003 we had 40. That is twice our average and they are predicting another active year this year.
 
That should have been In 2003 we had 40 tornadoes sorry about that.
 
One thing I might mention here. In the southeast we have 2 tornado seasons. We have the normal Spring season and also a secondary season in November and December. We actually have two Severe Wx preparedness weeks cool huh.
 
I expect an above normal year

with a peak of May 22 to May 30 - which happens to coincide with my chase vacation!

seriously, I expect that April through June will be active - though not on the order of the first 11 days of May last year. But there will be a lot of tornados to go around. :shock: :!:
 
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