HELP... El Nino Effects 2006-7???

Greetings to all SDS and STDS deprived chasers in all current fall weather deprived locations in Texas. It may be a bit premature but I'm going to blame the lack of fall storms to this point on El Nino and a very annoying upper level ridge set up affecting north Texas. It's been a long time since I've seen a good set up out here, September has come and gone and now it's October, Where are the squall lines? the widespread MCS complexes? Vigorous upper level disturbances? I hear that their is even a possibility that the El Nino could strengthen to moderate conditions during the winter. The good side to this would at least be cooler temperatures and above average rainfall this winter. But if El Nino developes it might bring a very quiet 2007 Spring chase season (Oh NO) Does anyone have any thoughts on this? What will the El Nino mean for us.

Will Work For Supercells
David Brookshier


AND NOW LETS CHECK ON YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR THE DALLAS FT WORTH LISTENING AREA. AN ANNOYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AN EXTREME STABILITY WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES IN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO EXTREME STABILITY ALOFT. CLEAR BLUE SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULOUS CLOUDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD. ALL STORM CHASERS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER AS CLEAR SKIES APPROACH. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SUNBURN ARE POSSIBLE, AVOID OUT DOOR AREAS AND CLOSE ALL WINDOWS AS THE LACK OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE TO TRAMATIC FOR CHASERS TO LOOK UPON.
 
Wasn't September 23rd the first day of fall? That means we've only had 12 days so far this fall. Nothing unusual whatsoever about going 12 days with no storms, even in the Spring.

Out in NW Texas there were huge amounts of rain from thunderstorms over the Labor Day weekend, some totals over 4 inches! The 2 weeks or so before that we had regular thunderstorms and rain. I know central North Texas and Northeast Texas was also getting some storms/rain around that time too.

My point was, this is a VERY short term period without any storms across the northern half of Texas. It's nothing unusual. I don't see any outstanding cause for it other than the ridge right now, which looks to be a change on the way.
 
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