Forecast 3/8-3/10 Central US

[Tim Samaras]

I hate to get into details of model data that will likely change, but next week has captured my full attention.

With respect to timing, moisture issues, etc.. If only part of what I see in the GFS forecast (12z 3/2 run) comes close, we're all in for a real treat next Thursday to even Saturday. Very strong 500 mb trough blasing through the southern plains causing a rapid surface low to develope.

Get your camera equipment charged! I think this is our first opportunity of the season.

At least I hope so.

Tim

 

[Michael Auker]

I've been watching this also. If the GFS verifies, it'll be quite an active period next week and beyond. I'm more interested in the second storm shown on the GFS for east of the Mississippi...

 

[David Wolfson]

I posted this a week ago before the last disappointment

The models have been pretty consistently trying to pull short-wave energy into the southwest and then out into the southern plains for the last few months. Instead they've been less progressive and more absorbed into a single jet, rather than splitting the flow.

This seems to still be the case, as the models are ever-more pessimistic about any significant impulse making it very far in from the coast. Sad More rainless days for us and drought for the southern plains. It wouldn't be too bad a picture storm-wise for the spring, but until the Gulf opens up more it's gotta suck.

I think this pattern seems to be characteristic of how the GFS has been handling the west coast short-waves lately, so I'm not very optimistic about this next one. I hope I'm wrong because it would not only mean precip in the areas that need it badly, but a good chance of some early season supercell races :wink: for the friends on the southern plains.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

I'd like the low to trend farther west to pull the warm bubble up into Southern WI to get me an early season treat. I need warm weather bad.

 

[Dan Cook]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs1...hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Me likey so far. 982 low NW of me.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

May the west trend continue....

 

[brody_clifton]

Looks like a good shortwave moving into the southern plains March 8ish and into the mid miss. valley on the 9th. The large longwave system moving in behind it looks equally impressive. Large pocket of 10+ 850mb dews from 3/2 12Z GFS forecasted for most of AR and southern MO out ahead of the intitial s/w as it moves out of the plains and into the trees. 50+kt ssw LLJ, 500 mb sw streak well over 100 kts, and a rapidly deeping surface low to the west all spell show time, at least for now. It is March, and tornado season has been known to open with a bang during week 2. Who knows? And La Nina is in, that usually means something significant somewhere (pick a # on where though). If the storm can kinda meander around the four corners region long enough to pull up deep gulf moisture, it could be a heckuva period.

 

[Brian Stertz]

March is primetime for strong/violent tornadoes for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. Several of these systems at mid/end of next week look like they will have that significant tornado threat...the Thursday 9th storm especially. I have not seen anything that powerful and negatively tilted in quite a while. I am getting things ready for the chase next week. Things have been too consistent on all the long rangers to expect any radical pattern changes...no matter how shaky the GFS performance has been. Timing will be the big key and this will be watched closely by all those that are involved with severe storms from SPC to the chasers and spotters. It looks pretty scary.

 

[Alex Lamers]

I am optimistic as well. Analogs here from SPC have been remarkably consistent with relatively large area of +15% cumulative severe probabilities over the Central US in this timeframe. The GFS continues to plug along with its idea of a more southwesterly flow and will put my area right into the storm track. Looks to FINALLY be enough moisture surge north to make this interesting. Right now I have a guarded interest but it is growing every model run. Considering adding some thunder to the extended in my forecast tonight...

 

[Karen Politte]

:roll: :lol:

The models all have quite ample time to flip and flop back and forth at will over the next 7 days. Any speculation is really just wishcasting right now. LAST WEEK they were showing a "monster negative tilt trough" for this weekend. Uhuh....riiight.

I may seriously begin to consider what the models are showing for next week when next week arrives.

Meanwhile - it's time to drink some wine over the weekend....

Karen

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Ah Karen ever the pessimist. :wink: But, who can blame you after your 2005 season?

I'm at least glad to see I'm not the only one impressed by the GFS output for mid-late next week- it increases my confidence in my ability to correctly interpret model output, which I wasn't sure of for quite awhile. At least I can make SOME sense out of all those lines and barbs and figures.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Get a load of this! (I know, I know---it's 204 hrs out, but it's at least good for a laugh)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...2/fp0_204.shtml

*sings* "It's the end of the world as we know it..."

Gabe

 

[Tom Dulong]

I'm usually not one to wishcast this far out, but the GFS 144hr 500 mb fcst looks very similar to the 500 mb analysis the morning of 13 March, 1990
(that was the day of the Hesston, KS F5 for those too young to remember).

Check out the synopsis for the Hesston event via Doswell's paper at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/...ocs/Hesston.pdf

Also, last nights ensemble spagetti chart for 168hr (Wed evening, 8 March) is encouraging - not very much spread:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f168_us.html

Certainly someting to keep an eye on.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The one thing that stands out to me about the GFS "forecast" (wishcast right now IMO, but that's beside the point) is the shape of that trough out west... I mean, I think when we see deep troughs like the one forecast, the height gradient is a little less intense as the gradient spreads out over a larger area... In this case, like 3-13-90, the heights are very low very far south, with nearly uniform 500mb heights over a large area in the heart of the trough, leading to a very intense mid-level height gradient (thus the 115kt+ 500mb winds on the GFS). The diffluent nature of the flow as the nose of the jet streak rounds the base of the trough and pokes into the Plains, along with the mid-upper level progs as a whole, certainly screams "synoptically-evident severe weather outbreak" to me. Of course, we're still PLENTY of time away from this potential event, so I'm not getting too pumped about it yet. We have a tough time with 3-day forecasts, much less 7-10 day forecasts LOL.

I wouldn't mind see the 3200 j/kg SBCAPE and 405 m2/s2 0-3km SRH that characterized the environment near Hesston per the Doswell paper linked above, however.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

It was pointed out to me that last night's 0z upper air charts included data from around and inside the system off the west coast from dropsondes released as part of some research project. The charts from 0z included upper air data we normally observe over land, and were spatially more dense than current CONUS coverage. I was told this data was almost certainly ingested into 0z model runs.

Whether or not this means that the solutions are more accurate as a result of the dramatically improved sampling, I don't know.