Dr. Gray's 31 May Forecast Update

[Josh Morgerman]

Dr. Gray & team just issued the 31 May update to their extended range forecast of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. The update is: forecast numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major 'canes remain the same as the previous two forecasts.

However, landfall probabilities have adjusted slightly. I have included the 04 April numbers below so you can compare the changes side-by-side. Blue equals down and red equals up. The only significant changes from 04 April:

* The implied threat to the Gulf Coast from all 'canes and Cat 3+ 'canes is lower.
* The implied threat to the East Coast + FL from Cat 3+ 'canes is greater.

Changes aside, landfall risks for all 'canes and major 'canes remain well-above average in all USA regions.

Final note: Dr. Gray & team predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the season.

The full report is here.

04 APR
Named: 17
Hurricanes: 9
Cat 3+: 5

Cat 1+ Landfall
All USA: 98%
Gulf Coast: 79%
E Coast + FL: 89%

Cat 3+ Landfall
All USA: 81%
Gulf Coast: 47%
E Coast + FL: 64%

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I temperarily live in central FL, and the talk here is similar. The funny thing is part of me thinks it will be a slow year (land falling hurricanes that is). I guess the skeptic in me and the almost certain upredictability of hurricanes give me that notion. I guess 3 incredible seasons back to back seems to be statisticly unlikley, but stranger things have happened. 150-250 years is a small sample considering the thousands of years of data that is non-existant or only interpreted by soil samples.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I temperarily live in central FL, and the talk here is similar. The funny thing is part of me thinks it will be a slow year (land falling hurricanes that is). I guess the skeptic in me and the almost certain upredictability of hurricanes give me that notion.[/b]

I have heard some mets say similar things-- for example, that 2006 will be a year of storms recurving into the open Atlantic before reaching the USA. In light of this, it's interesting that Dr. Gray and team reveal very high confidence in the probability of a hurricane landfall (95%) and major hurricane landfall (82%) in the USA this year!

I guess 3 incredible seasons back to back seems to be statisticly unlikley, but stranger things have happened. 150-250 years is a small sample considering the thousands of years of data that is non-existant or only interpreted by soil samples.
[/b]

So true. The data sample we have to work with (~150 years) is frustratingly tiny, isn't it?

But Re: 2006 in relation to 2004 and 2005... While it's tempting to think that 2006 shouldn't have lots of USA landfalls-- because 2004 and 2005 did, and there's no historical precedent for three consecutive seasons bringing lots of USA landfalls-- at the end of the day I don't think what happened in 2004/2005 has any relevance when gauging the 2006 threat. If you flip a coin twice and get heads both times, that doesn't mean that heads is less likely to occur-- or that you're "overdue" for tails-- on the third flip.