Chase Case #7

[Kevin Crawmer]

Well I am just catching up on things and I'm glad I didn't see the dates. Looks like an interesting setup. After 12z I was thinking somewhere around Norman and after 18z I don't see why I would leave. I might start drifting a bit south, but it looks like the dryline is pushing pretty far east. I will hold tight and see what happens.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I think I'll stick close to home on this one and head out I-70 to about Burlington, Colorado. I like the upper level support (divergence) and the directional shear. I want to stick close to the edge of the low clouds and hope to see some action on the differential heating.

Well, I put myself in good position. We have some decent heating and storm motion should be due north. I'm going to follow the cell north out of Burlington on 385 and try and get lucky. The window is a little small as this storm will likely pile into some precipitation to the north. The shear gets better right before that happens, so a brief tornado is all I am looking for. Dry air is surging in from the south so this will probably be the only play of the day unless something explodes nearby.

 

[Darren Addy]

I'm repositioning from Great Bend, KS to Newton, KS (north of Wichita). Mapquest tells me it is an hour and 39 minutes, so I should have time to reposition, based on the 18z data.

 

[Dean Baron]

Assuming the laws of physics dont apply to me today, I will setup shop in PRATT,KS. I really like the winds on those soundings. I may move east depending on later data.

EDIT: Based on the 18z data I somehow missed I am moving north and east of my original target of Pratt towards lets say EMPORIA,KS.

 

[Jim Tang]

Thanks for keeping it going Marc

I'm going to stay where I'm at. Don't have any urges to move anytime soon.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm shuttling west to Wilson, KS. Granted, the better moisture and instability is south of me, but I can't complain about the dewpoint depression, and I'm intrigued by that cu field ahead of me, and how the satellite image suggests a junction of E-W and N-S boundaries. Plus, the winds back like crazy just to my north, and there's some indication of a dryline bulge not terribly far southwest of me. So...plenty of variables at this location, all within reach. Guess I'll grab a sandwich in Wilson and wait for the 21Z update.

Kurt, happy hunting down there by Wichita. You'll probably bag a tube while I kick myself for not heading south.

 

[David Wolfson]

This doesn't look like too subtle a case. Moisture tongue, ample helicity, and upper support combines with a stout dryline. I think the key is not to play too far north near the front in KS with this case. The surface environment seems too trashed up there.

I'll start the morning in Medicine Lodge, KS.

[edit] Am late to the case and posted the above based on the 12Z (undated) data, without looking at the other posts and the 18Z update.

The 18Z update shows central KS clearing up and the action area shifting north and east from my location. Am heading to McPherson, KS, about 20Z.

 

[Randall Cooper]

I'll join in, after looking at the 12z data, im heading to wichita, ks and adjust from there, I have not looked at the 18z data yet, I'm acting as if I looked at this the morning of the event at 12z, will be heading out within the next 30 minutes or so, around 7:30AM CDT. I should arrive in Wichita about an hour or hour and a half before the 18z comes out, wish me luck!, i'll need it cuz im not very good at this forecasting thing, lol.

 

[Randall Cooper]

After getting in Wichita around noon, I grab lunch at a local Mcdonalds and look at the latest. After waiting an hour for the 18z to be released, it finally is(just looked at it). Against my better judgment I decide to head back to where i came from a little more Northeast. I jump onto I335 and head back towards Emporia. After looking at the latest, I just have a funny feeling, I might be wrong though.

 

[Leah Robertson]

Yeah, I'm another one who's going to be cheering from the sideline as I'm very familiar with this event and chased that day. More on that later...

Excellent choice for a chase case, btw. ;o)

 

[Matthew Fischer]

after looking at 12z and now the 18z since i'm late to the party again. I would have started in Wichita, ks. i'll be sitting on i-35 on the ok/ks border. That dryline is screaming east.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

The soundings from Norman, OK look good already as of 12z. I don't see anything to move me from this sort of area at 18z either. Looks like it could be a classic dryline setup to me, with decent cape, storm relative helicity etc, if only the cap will break.

 

[Andrew Revering]

For sake of looking like an idiot... I'll post some thoughts after looking at the initial images very late, post-date error...

Looks like severe capping issues, clouds and going mess.. to the north there's a moisture problem so I didn't even consider anything north of KS/CO. South the capping is an issue.

But there is some hope I think in Colorado... maybe NW Kansas... backed winds, decent moisture, and some clearing on the horizon.

Initial thought is Burlington, CO.

 

[Andrew Revering]

Alright, I'm still in the game.... after 18z, I'm heading east and will be in Hays, KS by 300 pm.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Going to hang tight in Enid, OK until I get the 21Z data...CU field looks to be forming in front of the dryline to my west and SW....storm motion looks to be to the north and slightly northeast...it looks like the dryline is bulging in SW OK and the TX panhandle...sharp Dp contrasts after dryline passage....ingredients are here...will they come together and will I be in the right spot.....would like to see more data before I make a final target decision...seems I get to anxious and always move to early....

EDIT: Factoring in the front/dryline speed, I may be to far west before the storms really get going.....will watch radar trends and may have to adjust north and east based on radar data.