Chase Case #7

[Patrick Martin]

I'm a little late on this one, but the fact I could not access the images yesterday at work helped since I never could see the date so coming into this with fresh eyes.

Based on 12z data, I made the drive from Denver to Salina, KS and waited for the 18z update. With the 18z now out, it confirms that the warm front is draped across I-70, a little farther south than I though it would be when I left DEN, and the dryline is on the move through wrn KS. Going to drop s/sw to Hutchinson, KS to be further down in the warm sector and a tick closer to the dryline, but be mindful of the wind fields to make sure the dryline does not pass me by. Will be in Hutchinson in just over an hour, before 20z, and keep an eye to the sky.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I have left the Enid area and pushed up towards Medicine Lodge Ks. We brought the portable grill and grilled up some 2" thick Rib Eye steaks with loaded baked potatoes with a good view of the SW and W. Some convection has started to develop in the distance, cumulus congestus and cumulus. We left around 16 z and now we are in Newton Ks. just north of Wichita. Winds seem to be backing nicely near the surface low over W. Kansas and E. Colorado. We are thinking of heading to the Wakeeny area and see what develops by 20z. Wakeeny is our new location of interest, and worst case scenario, we believe that initial convection will take place in this area and back build into S. Kansas and down towards the OUN area. Lining up SW to NE we should be in good shape to travel south and have multiple intercepts into the night along the I-70 corridor and south on I-35.

 

[Marc Austin]

21Z Update

I think most people who are going to participate in this case have already gotten on board. I'm going to go ahead and post the final update and will post results sometime tomorrow. Here are the latest observations:

21Z Update:


Surface Observations:
Midwest
Central Plains
High Plains

Satellite Imagery:
High Plains
Central Plains

Radar Images:
High Plains
Midwest
Central Plains

Things look to be getting interesting...

 

[Mike Peregrine]

lol ... ok so what's up with what appears to be Cu building over eastern Kansas, and backed surface winds across western Missouri/eastern Kansas? Would like to know if there was any instability to play with over there at all, because now I'm thinking something closer to home might be a possibility.

EDIT: LMAO ... ok, nevermind. I was getting my chase cases mixed up ... I thought this was the #8 thread and not #7 ... this explains everything.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm thinking that line of storms to my east is what became of my cumulus field. I was sitting right under those cu here in Wilson, but evidently I was too preoccupied with waiting for the next update to look at the sky--otherwise I'd have bumped east. Sigh. Well, now I need to play catch-up, since everything is now fifty miles to my east. I see a supercell scooting along the NE border, and another nice-looking cell to its south. But for the moment, I'm locking onto the little guy forming by Salina. I'm blasting back east down I-70 and will, of course, adjust as I need to along the way. From the looks of it, more storms are going to build south.

Nice-looking towers in front of me. Did I put a card in my camera? Yep, I'm good to go.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Well, I'm leaving my storm near Idalia, Colorado now (hopefully it already produced!) and heading east. I'm just about 45 minutes to an hour from the dryline, so by 22Z, I should be in position for action again in northwest Kansas near the Atwood-Oberlin area.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

The Oklahoma sounding looks good, lots of cape, not much convective inhibition, okayish speed and directional shear. There also isn't too much cloud cover, and according to satellite and radar images there is already a pretty strong cell developed. I will start in Oklahoma City

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll stay in Emporia, KS. We'll see how that developing Cu to my west and southwest develops. I'll place a bet on that being my show. At this point I wont move, I have a pretty good feeling about where I am.

 

[Corey Sloan]

READJUSTED TARGET: Winfield, KS...I will ride this one out from here and see what happens. I will watch radar trends and use the good road structure from this area to get me where I need to go!

 

[David Wolfson]

After reaching McPherson, KS, fueling, and etc., it was close to 20:30. Storms were starting to go up near Concordia. I got on I-135 north to Salina. Rolling into Salina about 21Z the line was clearly back-building with the tail-end cell looking pretty vigorous fifteen miles or so to my northwest. I'll be following this cell which could go nuts as it crosses the front, unless the line continues to back-build. If this storm goes I expect storm motion will take me toward Clay Center.

 

[Matt Gingery]

The boundary met up with us in Wakeeny around 18z and we headed east. We have set up shop in Junction City Kansas and development is taking place to are adjacent NW. We are moving to the north towards Concordia Ks. and will intercept cells along the Kansas/Nebraska line. Hopefully these cells will produce something in N. Riley and into Washington Ks. We will ride these cells up into the SE portion of Nebraska. These are our cells to play for this chase trip. We will see soon what we get out of these on the storm report page. The best of luck to everyone else. It is looking really good in and around OUN at the moment too.

So, my pick of cells will be in Riley and Washington County Kansas, near Fort Riley/Concordia/Kansas,Nebraska border and on into Beatrice NE.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I'm quite content with my location in Hutchinson KS. Watching the cu field build and, as others have mentioned, for the line to start building south and hopefully catch a tail end charlie. May have to wander a bit east as things develop, but going hold in Hutchinson for now.

 

[John Farley]

I have moved east from Alva, OK to the intersection of I-35 and route 11 just west of Blackwell, OK. I'm watching the towers going up to my southwest near Enid, and expect to be in a good position to intercept.

The above was based on the 18Z update - hadn't looked beyond that as 21Z wasn't going to be up till tomorrow morning - now I see that it is, so will post an update once I have looked it over.

OK - Now I have looked at the 21Z data and seen that the towers I had my eye on earlier fizzled - but there is still stuff trying to fire along the dryline. I am going to move north toward ICt - maybe to somewhere about half between Blackwell and there. Then, I will be ready to blast north or south if I have to based on what I see firing on radar. If the cap breaks, the I-35 corridor will be the place to be. Looks like a definite "CAP - Boom or Bust!" kind of day.

 

[Marc Austin]

I decided to go ahead and post the 21Z update because most people already saw the date and I'm ready to get this case out of the way so I can focus on #8 and some new ones I will be posting in the coming days. I will post results tomorrow during the early afternoon. Keep at it guys! It's almost over.

 

[Matt Gingery]

We are still hanging out in N. Riley County Ks., and watching an impressive structure roll in from the west. Nice looking pancake stack at the flanking base with a lowering as well. This thing is getting ready to produce folks. This cell is the dominant one for now, and it is backbuilding down towards the Hutchensin area. If the flow gets cut off on this one then we will push south. If we have enough daylight we can intercept the flanking line into the Manhatten area.