Chase Case #2 (2010 version)

[Danny Neal]

Decided to start the next one.... give you a couple days to soak it in before I move to chase day.

On a level of difficulty I would rate #1 as 2 out of 5, on this one 4 out of 5 so be careful with your targeting! The target for this day will not stand out to you until very close to initiation. (There will be storms SOMEWHERE in the USA "tomorrow")

(Day before)

12z UA

300
500
700
850

12z Surface
Midwest
Plains

12z Composite

0z UA

300
500
700
850

0z Surface
Midwest
Plains

0z Composite

Day 2 text:

SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THREAT OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND MAY CONTINUE INTO PART OF THE EVENING​

 

[Skip Talbot]

Put me in Luverne, MN. This setup looks bad. A ridge, with what looks like northwest flow coming, mediocre surface pattern with a high sitting right on the plains and a cold front that looks like it just cleared out the moisture. Dewpoints are pretty low across the plains and midwest, but temps are decent so I'm guessing this is an early spring setup. There is a decent little pocket of moisture sitting in the north central plains. I'm guessing we'll get some northwest flow type supercells in ND/SD/MN with weak surface winds and rather marginal dews. It doesn't scream tornado outbreak, but might be able to squeeze something out of this one. You picked a tough one, Danny.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Wow. Nothing's jumping out. How about Russell, KS but a lot of time to kill before I decide. (Or maybe Wilmington, NC for some waterspout chasing?)

 

[Connor Keef]

I'll initially target Omaha, NE.

 

[George Widener]

I'm totally clueless...but I'd probably be looking at NE Kansas or SE Nebraska...somewhere in that neck of the woods looks interesting.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I will probably be spending the night in Omaha, NE. I agree that the High Plains look like they have some potential. I will eat dinner in Omaha and think about adjusting north to Sioux Falls. Darn tough one here though Danny. I like it!

 

[L.B. LaForce]

Yep, setup looks kinda like garbage, but ill head out to KDSM and sit till next update.

 

[Tom Dulong]

I'm thinking this might be a high plains event...surface dews already in the ballpark for severe weather in northeast Colorado. Also...don't need as much shear in this area versus the more classic events at lower elevations.

My initial target for "day before" positioning is Limon, CO.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Not an easy one thats for sure. Disregarding most of the central US with that massive high. I guess I will bite on the high plains magic as well. Stick me in Big Springs, NE. Thats a nice town to stay in. Excellent diner right next to the hotel.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I think that I'm going to set up shop in Sioux Falls, SD. I'm not loving the setup either, but of all the places I see in the Midwest/Plains it seems like this North area of ND/SD/MN and maybe Nebraska and Iowa are the most primed for events if things start popping. I like the upper level wind profiles in these areas and there seems to be some moisture in place in the lower levels. So I'm just hanging out in a coffee shop here in Sioux Falls until the next updates... kinda worried I made it all the way up here and its going to be a bust, but I should still have fun! It also seems like there may be some nice clearing in this area during the warming hours.

 

[Zack Cooper]

setup looks terrible with that ridge setting up in the SW... i don't see anywhere good... I'll start off in Ida Grove Idaho, and hope i'm not too far off.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Well at first I couldn't figure out the times of the data provide (if they were current or just models for the next day). So after getting that clarified, and looking at the models again. I think I'm just going to stick to Amarillo, TX for the night, and maybe see what the morning data says. This maybe one of those panhandle surprise days.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I think I'll head over to Kansas City, MO and spend the night, touring the HST Library and Museum in Independence before retiring for evening and planning on getting up early and driving at least 5-6 hours WNW, depending on how the 12z data looks tomorrow.

 

[Andy Jackson]

I will shoot for Oakley, KS as a starter.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I'll be the odd man out an say La Crosse, WI, in hopes that the clouds and convection evident on the 0z composite dissipates. There appears to be a very narrow corridor of higher moisture along the trough, and that's an area where shear seems to be maximized as well. Things seem to be pretty progressive between the 12z and 0z, with the ridge across the Great Lakes / Midwest breaking down quite nicely. I'm guessing this will slow the system down enough to take advantage of daytime heating the following day. What's worrisome is that the Tds drop from 50F to 42F at Minneapolis as the trough is approaching.