Matt Gingery
21 Z Full Update:
Visible Satellite:
Central Plains: http://i40.tinypic.com/ezqzpu.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i40.tinypic.com/11bunb7.jpg
Upper Plains: http://i43.tinypic.com/2ce4rv9.jpg
Radar Composite:
Central Plains: http://i39.tinypic.com/25hmgp4.gif
Upper Plains: http://i39.tinypic.com/3178guq.gif
Southern Plains: http://i44.tinypic.com/30vir0z.gif
Mesoscale Discussions:
MD #1: http://i40.tinypic.com/10sfy8z.gif
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
VALID
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB AND WRN IA AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER
CNTRL KS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNDERWAY OVER N CNTRL
KS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS.
HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN KS
INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO OCCUR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN AND NERN NEB AS
WELL AS WRN IA TOWARD EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
MD #2: http://i41.tinypic.com/ofukqq.gif
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
VALID
...WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN
AR...
TSTMS DEVELOPING MOVING INTO SEBASTIAN CO ARE SFC BASED...AND WILL
HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS/TORNADOES. THUS...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AR AND MO SOON.
FARTHER WEST... A POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SUPERCELL ACROSS OSAGE
CO AND VAD WIND DATA FROM TULSA CONTINUES TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. NO CONFIRMATION
OF TORNADOES YET.
MD #3: http://i43.tinypic.com/abm7gg.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 154 BY 23Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 21Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING ENEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL INTO ERN KS. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT JET STREAK ARE
CONTRIBUTING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MARION
COUNTY KS SEWD INTO OSAGE COUNTY OK.
STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE DESCENDING MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 55-65 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN NEODESHA KS PROFILER SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES.
21Z Wind Profiler:
http://i44.tinypic.com/34is3gn.gif
Visible Satellite:
Central Plains: http://i40.tinypic.com/ezqzpu.jpg
Southern Plains: http://i40.tinypic.com/11bunb7.jpg
Upper Plains: http://i43.tinypic.com/2ce4rv9.jpg
Radar Composite:
Central Plains: http://i39.tinypic.com/25hmgp4.gif
Upper Plains: http://i39.tinypic.com/3178guq.gif
Southern Plains: http://i44.tinypic.com/30vir0z.gif
Mesoscale Discussions:
MD #1: http://i40.tinypic.com/10sfy8z.gif
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
VALID
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD
EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO ERN NEB. THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO NERN NEB AND WRN IA AFTER 22Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET OVERTAKES THE MOIST AXIS. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED OVER
CNTRL KS IN RESPONSE TO AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...AND LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNDERWAY OVER N CNTRL
KS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
SHORT TERM HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER-TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS.
HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN KS
INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO OCCUR TOWARD EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN AND NERN NEB AS
WELL AS WRN IA TOWARD EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS LINES WITH LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
MD #2: http://i41.tinypic.com/ofukqq.gif
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
VALID
...WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN
AR...
TSTMS DEVELOPING MOVING INTO SEBASTIAN CO ARE SFC BASED...AND WILL
HAVE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS/TORNADOES. THUS...A
TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AR AND MO SOON.
FARTHER WEST... A POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH SUPERCELL ACROSS OSAGE
CO AND VAD WIND DATA FROM TULSA CONTINUES TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. NO CONFIRMATION
OF TORNADOES YET.
MD #3: http://i43.tinypic.com/abm7gg.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF WW 154 BY 23Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED.
AS OF 21Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING ENEWD THROUGH
S-CNTRL INTO ERN KS. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT JET STREAK ARE
CONTRIBUTING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MARION
COUNTY KS SEWD INTO OSAGE COUNTY OK.
STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON E OF ONGOING STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE DESCENDING MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 55-65 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. MOREOVER...TRENDS IN NEODESHA KS PROFILER SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES.
21Z Wind Profiler:
http://i44.tinypic.com/34is3gn.gif
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