Chase Case 12

[Jared Orr]

I'm gonna make my way up from KC to Seneca KS I like the cu field there... I may have to adjust north or south once I see new data, but I'm pretty confident in being able to see a triple point supercell before everything squalls out.

 

[Matt Gingery]

19 Z update:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch & Tornado Watch



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



Tornado Watch:

http://i44.tinypic.com/vrvxad.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

19 Z Midwest Visible Satellite Update:

http://i44.tinypic.com/ifbau0.jpg

19 Z Mid Mississippi Valley Visible Satellite:

http://i40.tinypic.com/jzwm87.jpg

19Z Southern Plains Visible:

http://i39.tinypic.com/10iifcp.jpg

Mesoscale Discussion:

http://i40.tinypic.com/afjxiq.gif

 

[Dean Baron]

I am moving west of my original target of Ottawa, KS. My new target is EMPORIA,KS, although depending on initiation I may change targets. I like the progression of the cold front that is now in central KS, but I would like to see the dewpoints climb a bit. Anywas, I am driving west keeping my eye on some developing Cu to my southwest. Once I hit Emporia I should have a couple routes heading south and southwest.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Cell roughly around Great Bend, KS looks to be in a sweet spot on the latest satellite image. Repositioning from Beatrice, NE to Concordia, KS just to be a little closer in case that cell goes crazy!

 

[mikegeukes]

Sitting in Belleville KS

 

[Jared Orr]

Haven't made it to Seneca yet... I'm torn between changing my course for Manhatten to maybe catch that monster cell down there or waiting for more cells to fire up along the frontal boundary. Hmmmmmm.... I'll continue towards Seneca I guess.. I'm glad this isn't real life. I would be stressed. lol

 

[David Wolfson]

In Lincoln when the 19Z came in... south it is! Although there'll probably be storms up here later, the vis satellite shows the action further south off the dryline where it hits 60+ dewpoints. The big pressure falls are down there in east-central KS, too. I'm heading south with all deliberate speed on US77 to Marysville, then KS99 south from Beattie. Hope to reach I-70 east of Manhattan soon after the 21Z comes in, i.e. 21Z at Wamego, KS.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I think with the warm front likely to lift further and what should be a refocusing 850mb low, the best option may be to hang along the KS/NE border up towards Beatrice. Plunk me down on the KS side at Marysville KS. Alot of ML winds with next strong wave and expect LL jet to back some later in the day. Had the moisture been deeper, this may have been a bonafide MDT risk scenario...still might be with the decent speed shear and modest moisture.

***Did not see the 18z update...d'oh. Well guess I am in a safe place. Time to get on triple red alert ***

 

[JF Massicotte]

12Z: Start the day in Kansas City. NE KS or NW MO will be the play with good shear and moisture.


18Z: Move towards Marysvile, KS.

 

[Paul Austin]

13z?

As expected, the wf is lifting across eastern KS with backing sfc winds and building CAPE. Approaching impulse should enhance lift and get things going before too long. I'll mosey up 99 towards Emporia, KS, keeping an eye out for any discrete development southward back towards Moline. If I see something nice pop, I might stay a little further south, but for now, it's Emporia.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Arrived in Lincoln and am continuing west to Sutton, NE. No rhyme nor reason at this point other than to dig more deeply into the PDS using the cu field up ahead as my guiding star.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will move west on highway 16 to Blaine, KS. The road network is not great in this area, but at least there is a north/south option, so hopefully I will be able to make any necessary quick adjustment when the 21Z data comes out.

 

[Paul Austin]

18z

18z
Well, I misread the times, as well, but no matter. I mostly set up my position based on sfc and upper air charts. Now, I'm a little more intrigued by the DL in s/sc KS. I think I'll shift sw toward Newton, KS. If that cell holds together, I might make a move to intercept, but at present, I think I might be a little too far east. I'll hope for new initiation south along the DL. I like the low 60's Tds and backed sfc winds in sc KS.

Now off to read 19z update.

 

[Paul Austin]

19z

19z:
I'm currently viewing the south side of a couple cells north of my location of Newton, KS that look promising, but the towers developing along the DL are appealing as well. I think I'm within striking distance of the cells north of me. I think I'll move a little northward until I can at least view the storm bases to determine whether or not they are worth pursuing or if I should stick to my more south targeting of developing cu. I'm leaning toward letting the cells go, but, of course, in rl I would be influenced by wx radio warnings and such. I'll say I'm somewhere between Moundridge and McPherson, KS.

 

[Jared Orr]

I'm gonna head west and join some of you guys in Marysville KS... Much better road options anyway.