Chase Case 12

  • Thread starter Thread starter Matt Gingery
  • Start date Start date
Coming from Michigan, I'm going to start my day in Saint Joseph, MO, wait for the next update, and see how the warm front and dewpoints are progressing. I like the ample 500mb winds pointed in this direction. Topeka is probably better for kinematics, but I don't trust what those SW 850s are going to do with the moisture to my west.

EDIT: Pulled the trigger just before the update. High risk? COOL! Forecasting is still a fair amount of guesswork for me. I'm really trying to call my own shots and then see what the SPC says, but it's nice to get their corroboration.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I saw the upgrade coming and made sure to get on the road early this morning. Will probably be arriving in Kansas City at around lunch time. I know when the date gets revealed I am going to immediately kick myself for not recognizing it. That 850mb 12z map looks rather familiar.
 
Well being that I live in Kansas City, Mo, I think I'll start in Kansas City, Mo. There are two other reasons why I like KC...

I'm thinking that by the time of initiation, the warm front will hopefully be in the Kansas City vicinity, thus helping trigger some lift here. Also, as someone else said, if the secondary surface low in NE CO strengthens a bit, this will definately contribute to favorable directional shear. Of course, I don't have models to look at, so both of these thoughts could be totally irrelevant due to timing.

I'm not too happy with moisture depth, cloud cover, or the veering winds throughout 850mb, but nearly everything else looks great!

Being where I am, I will easily be able to move south if windshear, lack of moisture, cloud cover, or a slow warm front prompts me to.
 
EDIT - the following is based on the initial batch of data only - I saw after I posted that more has been added. Will edit if needed based on the new data.

I think there is decent potential anywhere from southeast SD thorugh Iowa, northeast MO, and much of Illinois. Good upper support and some directional shear in any of those areas.

DISREGARD THE FOLLOWING - THOUGHT I WAS LOOKING AT 12Z SATELLITE, NOT 0Z. NOT INTO CHASING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! NOW THAT I SEE THE REAL 12Z DATA, I WILL PROBABLY SHIFT TO A SOMEWHAT MORE NORTHEASTERLY POSITION. WILL MAKE ANOTHER POST AFTER A MORE CAREFUL LOOK AT THE DATA. DISREGARD: I do notice what looks like a storm over central MO now, so will try to intercept that as it crosses the Mississippi perhaps around or south of Hannibal, MO, but probably will sit on the IL side to avoid getting stuck on the wrong side of the river during any early action. Then after that, I can get more data and move as needed for the main show, perhaps east into IL or north into IA - good road networks both directions from the Hannibal area.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sorry about my muddled post before, quoted below. I need to look at the times more carefully, LOL.

OK, now that I have the right times, I think I will start out in
Bloomington, IL. This area has freeways going all directions, so I can blast northwest into IA, southeast into eastern IL, or just move as needed to stay ahead of convection. I think that as the storms now in this area move away and clearing ensues, new storms will fire later along the warm front, and with the good road network, Bloomington gives me lots of options to move as needed.


John Farley said:
EDIT - the following is based on the initial batch of data only - I saw after I posted that more has been added. Will edit if needed based on the new data.

I think there is decent potential anywhere from southeast SD thorugh Iowa, northeast MO, and much of Illinois. Good upper support and some directional shear in any of those areas.

DISREGARD THE FOLLOWING - THOUGHT I WAS LOOKING AT 12Z SATELLITE, NOT 0Z. NOT INTO CHASING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! NOW THAT I SEE THE REAL 12Z DATA, I WILL PROBABLY SHIFT TO A SOMEWHAT MORE NORTHEASTERLY POSITION. WILL MAKE ANOTHER POST AFTER A MORE CAREFUL LOOK AT THE DATA. DISREGARD: I do notice what looks like a storm over central MO now, so will try to intercept that as it crosses the Mississippi perhaps around or south of Hannibal, MO, but probably will sit on the IL side to avoid getting stuck on the wrong side of the river during any early action. Then after that, I can get more data and move as needed for the main show, perhaps east into IL or north into IA - good road networks both directions from the Hannibal area.
Click to expand...

EDIT - I guess I am the only one playing the warm front, but that is OK. I've had good luck with warm fronts, and often not such good luck with high risk outlooks.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Going to start off in Springfield, MO. I don't see much directional shear over the central/southern plains, but that could certainly change by the afternoon. Will start hear and re-evaluate my position as the day wears on. May head further north and east toward St. Louis, or southwest into OK.
 
FULL 18 Z UPDATE:

Visible Satellite 18Z Imagery:

Midwest: http://i39.tinypic.com/9ql468.jpg

South: http://i43.tinypic.com/2qb4ry8.jpg

Upper Mississippi Valley: http://i41.tinypic.com/dfg9hx.jpg

Radar Composites 18Z:

Central U.S.: http://i39.tinypic.com/73fay0.gif

Southern Plains: http://i41.tinypic.com/x6e6o9.gif

Mid-Mississippi Valley: http://i43.tinypic.com/2pq2lhv.gif


12 & 18 Z DATA AND MAPS

Upper Midwest Surface Analysis: http://i43.tinypic.com/333wosp.gif

CONUS Synoptic 12z: http://i39.tinypic.com/295r9qw.gif

18 Z Surface Map: http://i43.tinypic.com/9jowhd.gif


Current Mesoscale Discussions:

MD # 1: http://i43.tinypic.com/13yp4

N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SSWWD
THROUGH WRN OK. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD THROUGH W CNTRL
OK AND INTERSECTS THE FRONT IN S CNTRL KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROMOTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOW AN AXIS OF MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG ACROSS W CNTRL OK IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. PRESSURE FALLS
INDICATIVE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ENEWD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL JET ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN AND W CNTRL KS.
THIS ZONE OF FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL KS NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW
DEEPENS...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AND THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL
SHARPEN. THE INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL OK AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING OVER W CNTRL OK JUST W OF OKC.
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.


MD #2: http://i43.tinypic.com/2cniebm.gif

...DRYLINE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS SW OK
THROUGH TX...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS EAST. EARLY THIS AFTN...THE
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF HBR/FDR/SNK/FST. UPPER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON WV LOOPS NOW APPROACHING TX PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF
THE AREA...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ASCENT FOCUSED
ON THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTN. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...IF AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.



MD #3: http://i44.tinypic.com/2uohtna.gif

...STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 850 MB REVEALS BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
NRN NEB/SRN SD...AND THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...SO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN. LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR STRONG UPDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...TRAINING CELLS WILL ALSO POSE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL. STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD EWD INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF MN LATER THIS AFTN DUE TO INCREASING WAA.


Wayfaring Map: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/54443
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm a bit in late: I too rapidly read this maps but I start in Isabel,Ks. I'm trying to catch up with that storm in S Ks. If the storm is good I could chase it while I move toward Nebraska.
The next update I will study better this case.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

adlyons
State of the Chase Season 2024
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
247
Views
27K
Jamie H
Jamie H
cdcollura
2023-04-04 REPORTS: IA/IL
Replies
2
Views
1K
Jesse Risley
Jesse Risley
Quincy Vagell
2019-04-10 EVENT: KS/NE
Replies
5
Views
3K
Marshall Stoner
Quincy Vagell
2018-06-14 Event: SK/MB/ND/SD
Replies
2
Views
3K
Dan Robinson
Dan Robinson
Danny Neal
Remembering November 17th, 2013....
Replies
2
Views
4K
chrisbray
chrisbray
Back
Top