Chase Case #1

[David Wolfson]

I'm starting in Columbia, MO. I think the upper dynamics and surface data look good for northeast MO later "today", but don't want to be too far away in case something gets going to my south and west. Also like the clear skies to my southwest through northeast.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Sitting tight in Cameron, MO

 

[Danny Neal]

Awesome turn out everyone! I will give everyone another 2 or 3 hours to revise or hop in! Look for the 18z outlook between 2 and 3 PM Central.

 

[Scott Sims]

Waking up late to the game apparently, but I should be able to get to virtual Chillicothe, MO by the time the next update comes in.

 

[Danny Neal]

A lot has happened since 7 A.M. I've decided the next time I will be advancing to is 1930-2000z either late tonight or tomorrow afternoon again. I want to give everyone the opportunity to get in and get the most out of it.

Without further adieu....

OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY
OVER PARTS OF THE "U.S"

1037 AM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

0105 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.
IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

18Z DATA:
Surface data:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Midwest

Soundings:
12z
AMA (12z)
ILX (12z)
LZK (12z)
18z
DDC
DVN
FWD
LBF
OAX
OUN
SGF
TOP

Radar:
N. Plains
U. MS. Valley
Midwest
C. Plains
S. Plains

Satellite:
N. Plains
Midwest
C. Plains
S. Plains

18z composite

Moisture flux divergence/advection
Moisture flux divergence/peak wind gusts

Wind Profiler (image 1) (image 2)

 

[Dann Cianca]

I was so busy the day before that I didn't even look at anything. Magically, the 12Z data was available at exactly 12Z and after looking at it DEEPLY for 5 minutes, I've decided to get on the road (the chase vehicle was already packed) and I'm on my way to Hebron, Nebraska. Should be there (at the rate I drive) by 1830Z. Will have a look at 18Z data when I get there.

Like the left exit region, the clearing and the vort max that should be rotating through later on.

Better call SCOTT HAMMEL and see if he wants to come with before he heads down to Amarillo....

EDIT: Just saw Danny posted the 18Z update... will have a look at that shortly.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Seems like I'm already well behind the action. Plus I like the low level soundings from Topeka and North Platte (more so Topeka). Since I was in Taloga at 12Z, I would have no problem making it up to Newton, KS by 18Z and will probably be looking to go north and east from there. Hoping to stay out of the Flint Hills, however, as data coverage isn't so good there.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

I'll move just a touch down to Emporia, KS.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I've just made it into Hebron, Nebraska and am going to hang around and monitor the surface conditions. I'm liking the area to my WNW and also have my eyes SE in Kansas. Anyone know of a good place to grab a bite here?

 

[Scott Sims]

Feeling antsy to move and afraid of being too far east for initiation in Chillicothe, MO. Liking the TOP sounding, and the backing surface winds in the ICT-TOP area. Will move past MCI towards Ottawa,KS. Should be there by around 20Z, unless a new update changes my mind at 1930 as I get past KC.

 

[James Gustina]

I'm probably going east on US 36 right now, headed for Fairview, KS. Seems like supercells will initiate further south in Eastern Kansas.

 

[Colt R Forney]

After looking at the new data going to head up toward Herington, KS area. Looks to be a boundary just south of Topeka to Manhattan to Salina with a nice CU field starting to develop.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'm holding in St. Joe, MO for now. I like the cu field developing over KS and the backed surface winds, and will be watching areas to the west.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Cold front has already moved through Amarillo, so I'm off E trying to stay ahead of it. I'm flying E on 40 targeting Clinton, OK. Shoulda gone to NE with Dann! Hahaha...

 

[Connor Keef]

Heading East toward Oklahoma City to get in better position.