Arizona: Monsoon Season is now calendar-based

[Greg Ansel]

No Monsoon Here...

I can tell you, being a native of arizona (born & raised here in Phoenix since 1969), that our weather pattern here in Metro Phoenix has changed. When I was young we would get strong powerful storms fairly regularly (much like Tucson gets now). But since the urban sprawl, we have developed a "heat shield", which essentially tears many storms apart before they can reach the city. Last year we recorded less than 1" of rainfall for the entire monsoon season. I think I will have to hit the outskirts of the city or head down to Tucson for any action this year, which I think won'tl happen until mid-July, maybe a dust storm on the 4th.

Greg
Team Remora

 

[joel ewing]

Hey all! I haven't visited this forum since quite a while ago. Kinda forgot about it.
I've lived on the far northern outskirts of Tucson since '61, so I've seen a few monsoons. Pretty much anymore...I tell people that the full-on monsoon doesn't really get going until the 3rd. week of July. Oh for sure...we can get teased with some action prior...but it just seems to me that the really strong flow of moisture from old Mex. doesn't really become entrenched until then.
Gawd, I sure hope we have a good one this year. We've got our own water well where I live...and we're already fightin' water now. As always, my scrawny little trees and bouganvilla bushes are looking pretty damn tepid...AGAIN.
But...that's a small price to pay to live side-by-side with Rattlers, huge Tarantulas and Cougars. lol.
Please folks...pray for rain.

 

[Greg Campbell]

Tucson's DP broke 50 for a few hours today, and is predicted to hover near 40 for the next few days. This is enough to generate some high based convection over the mountains. The clouds - ANY weather - is welcome! Lightning sparked a small fire in the the Rincon range Sunday. Woo-hoo!

Forecasts don't show a huge improvement over the next few days. Even the extreme SE corner of the state, usually the first area to enjoy the moisture, will remain no less dry than us to the north.

<Edit>

LOL - so much for forecasting by DP! It went and rained last night!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well I was going to post a new topic but its just a quick question I have. Has there ever been a Moderate risk in Arizona? I lived there in Prescott for 12 years but wasnt super into weather , let alone SPC. Then I got into it and moved to Oklahoma =). If not moderate days are there often slight days there?

 

[Joe Zemek]

We get a handful of SLGT RISK days during the monsoon season. It really depends on how strong the season is; that's a major variable. The risk is almost always for high wind, with the occasional hail threat.

I was coming back to this thread to say that this afternoon has seen a +10Td surge and now PHX has a 10% chance for thunderstorms tonight. Scattered storms are up southeast of the metroplex.

 

[Susan Strom]

I just came back from my first chase of Monsoon 2008. I followed a lightning/CG-heavy storm in the Sonoran foothills and tried to stay close enough and far enough at the same time. This is early, 6/25 historically is a couple weeks before most Phoenix action gets started. Javalinas (like wild pigs) were out and about, roaming around in the dark nearby. I'll see what kind of storm pictures resulted soon.

Nice to chase late June. It has started this early before. Tonight's lightning though set a salt cedar grove on fire in southwest Phoenix and the blaze is not contained because so much fire equip is tied up right now in Calif. Homes are being threatened right now so that is not a good lightning legacy for tonight. Pray nothing happens. The fire muddied the whole sky over Phoenix today.

The last time a June storm blew in this early was a few years ago and I caught these bolts in some desert mountains. The clouds are reddish because of the sand storm that was happening at the time.
http://www.lightninglady.com/photos/StromFireRidge.jpg

Things were really cooking south of the border tonight. Moisture and higher dewpoints are reaching into Phoenix so there's another chance tomorrow as well...

 

[Gerrit Gulden]

Thats great to hear Susan. I highly depend on that Monsoonal Moisture for thunderstorms here in Idaho. This High pressure I figured was gonna get things started quickly. Now if we could get some tropical systems to form off of mexico then things will really get brewing. I had some distant thunderstorms the other night, got 2 bolts but not worth showing cause they were soo far away. Looking forward to seeing your lightning photos.

Stay cool out there,,,,,,,,, Happy Chasing... =)


-gerrit

 

[Jason Branz]

Normally I applaud the surge of monsoonal moisture up into the Sierra Nevada, as it provides us some pretty mountain storms and welcome clouds for a little heat relief. But the way it looks this weekend, it's just going to add to the little fire problem that NorCal has right now. Last weekend's dry lightning event started 600 fires...hopefully that won't be repeated this weekend, but I'm afraid it will be.

Trying to plan a little weekend trip out to PHX in late July to try my hand at this whole monsoon chasing thing.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

I lived up north right off I-17... Cordes Lakes to be exact (Junky town). Gah now that I think about it there were always sick supercells building in matter of minutes at one point in the season and being almost central in the state they came from all directions =) Ill go visit my friends and chase all July haha hows that for ya. I love my job.

 

[joel ewing]

Brendon, are you sure those were actual supercells and not towering multi-cells?
And that town you lived in....is it near Prescott?? I know that what is known as Prescott Valley does get tornadoes. I've never chased up there.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Yeah I believe two years ago there was one reported. I got pics of the hail core... I didnt really know what to look for back then. Yeah its thirty miles from PV. I went to school there at Bradshaw Mountain High. Yeah Couldnt tell you, but their tops are like 45 50k ... Yeah they were supercells. Atleast a few....

http://stormaddiction.com/tornadowarning.html

I dont believe that spotter saw one, but who knows. I didnt see it, I was out chasing in my flippen golf cart!!!! It was intense.




PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 PM MST
SUN JUL 16 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY

... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY THEN
RAPIDLY MOVED SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS DEVELOPED A
SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY THAT MOVED WESTWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS ONE STORM
LASTED FOR OVER TWO HOURS AND PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING...ONE TORNADO WARNING AND ONE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY.
THERE WERE TWO SEVERE STORM REPORTS
TODAY IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE FIRST
REPORT WAS FROM THE PUBLIC...STRONG WIND
GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 TO 65
MPH IN CORDES JUNCTION...YAVAPAI
COUNTY...AT 610 PM MST. THE SECOND REPORT
WAS FROM A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER WHO
REPORTED A TORNADO CROSSING INTERSTATE
17...ONE MILE NORTH OF THE SUNSET POINT
REST AREA AT 620 PM MST. NO OTHER SEVERE
STORM OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AT THIS TIME.

 

[Greg Campbell]

Dewpoints sneaking into the 60s over the next few days! Bring it on!