Another spring without juice?

[Mick McGuire]

Will the recent record heat and dry conditions across the central High Plains have an impact on the number of spring tornados in 2008 (similar to spring 2006)?

Record highs were set again across the state of Kansas on 19 Nov 2007:

Goodland, Hill City, Topeka, Wichita, Dodge City, Russell, Salina, Garden City, Medicine Lodge and many others.

Goodland precipitation departure from normal for the year: -5.22
Dodge City precipitation departure from normal for the year: -3.97
Kansas City precipitation departure from normal for the year: -5.66

However, locations from Topeka south were much wetter on the year:

Topeka precipitation departure from normal for the year: +2.91
Wichita precipitatin departure from normal for the year: +6.79
Tulsa precipitatin departure from normal for the year: +9.87
Oklahoma City precipitatin departure from normal for the year: +19.69 (WOW)

Unlike spring 2006, much of the southern plains has ample soil moisture leading into the cool season. But given the warm and dry outlook from CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off_index.html
It makes me wonder if another spring without juice will develop.

 

[Maggie Kahman]

Man, I hope not. 2006 was a pretty crappy season as far as activity goes. What would be nice is if we could have another season like 2005. That would be cool.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I have a feeling that Amarillo will get drylined a lot next season. This area will probably be fairly mild and dry this season. I've lived around here long enough to know that we almost never get back to back wet winters. We had a wet winter last year so I figure this winter will be pretty mild and dry. I really don't expect over a foot of total snow accumulation in Amarillo all winter. I hope I'm wrong (way wrong). I expect to be chasing a lot in central OK and central KS this next season. Hopefully we won't have the wildfires around here next season like we did in 2006. I have lived here since 1978 and I have never seen such out of control wildfires like we did. Anyway, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what comes of next season.

 

[Craig Maire II]

I know some parts of the country had a tornado "deficit" in 2006 but as far as chasing for me was concerned it was the best chase year until this year!
Examples:
1. Beatrice NE, 04/15/06, longtracked F2 tornado
2. Nicollet MN, 08/24/06, longtracked F3 tornado

 

[Adam Lucio]

Illinois set a record for tornados in 2006.

Not to sound greedy, but if less over there means more over here, I say bring it

2006 had a few significant outbreaks [3-12, 4-07, 9-22]

It seems no matter where, the US gets its 1400 a year.

 

[Terry Tyler]

personally, i dont think you can make an accurate assessment on what is going to be happening next year...

we wont really know until it gets here...

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

Hopefully we won't have the wildfires around here next season like we did in 2006. I have lived here since 1978 and I have never seen such out of control wildfires like we did.

There was also some pretty bad fires back in the early 90's in the Panhandle. I cant find the exact day or year for that matter, but I remember one day fires broke out everywhere (high winds and no humidity). One blaze caused Stinnett to lose 20 houses that day. The fire was coming right toward us at school, lets just say they let us out early that day. The winds were strong enough to get the power lines to touch each other, which was the cause of the fire that start on my dad's land. You dont realize how much sand is in the Panhandle till there is a fire.

I got some video of the fire that started near Borger last year. Just happened to be back on spring break and saw the smoke cloud east of town. My hat goes off to the firefighters who had to go out and fight this thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs3qW_Mu6-E

It is still along time till March, but as long as there a just a couple decent chase days next year, I will be satisfied. I dont expect to it to be near as nice as this year was. It would be cool to actually have a chase in OK actually work out for once though.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

This pattern seems to be alot like it was 2 years ago in the fall of 2005 and we had a very active Missouri that year with tornados in early Spring of 2006... I hope I'm wrong and things change...The good news is we have a LONG ways still til spring... But yeah right now I have a bad feeling and it seems like a drought is doing its best to develop over much of the Central US.. I am growing to hate la nina more and more.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I still don't see how conditions in the Plains now or even a day ahead of the arrival of SW flow will keep Gulf moisture from being carried north into the Plains. The Gulf is the source of deep moisture for the spring, not the ambient conditions on the Plains. Southerly winds will bring the 'juice' northward whether the air over the Plains is dry or not. The presence of dry air is there every year to some degree (hence the dryline).

2006's problems seemed to be setups too far north too early. Too far for deep moisture to make it in time for the upper support's arrival. The moisture that did make it all that distance was too shallow and easily mixed out.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Well, so far the winter is turning out to be extremely warm with very few decent polar air incursions, and CPC has a far above average chance of warm temperatures along the Gulf Coast. This could potentially turn out to keep the Gulf waters warm going into spring. Warm waters -> evaporation -> higher dewpoints.

Tim

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Well, so far the winter is turning out to be extremely warm with very few decent polar air incursions, and CPC has a far above average chance of warm temperatures along the Gulf Coast. This could potentially turn out to keep the Gulf waters warm going into spring. Warm waters -> evaporation -> higher dewpoints.

Tim

I believe this was the case in 2004, correct me if I'm wrong. But we saw quite warm temperatures in the gulf, which led to a ton of juice. Well, we all know how 04 wound up.

 

[Jeff Miller]

I agree with what Tim has said. Also, remember the dry ground to the west with the drought situation in Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, and Wyoming as well as points west. I suspect the spring - should this hold - will hold quite a number of dryline scenarios - and I think western Nebraska and west Kansas will be goldmines once we get the gulf return flow and higher dewpoints to meet up with the drier air pulled east with a strong system. I will stick my neck out way early on this and put it on the record that I think this will be a bullseye for Western Nebraska and Western Kansas next spring, just looking at these basic parameters. We still need some good snowstorms and rain events for good moisture in the plains this winter to aid with the gulf moisture return for good evapotranspiration when foliage comes out.

 

[afischer]

I know some parts of the country had a tornado "deficit" in 2006 but as far as chasing for me was concerned it was the best chase year until this year!
Examples:
1. Beatrice NE, 04/15/06, longtracked F2 tornado
2. Nicollet MN, 08/24/06, longtracked F3 tornado

August 24 2006 really got me to wondering what sort of effect prolonged drought has on the quality of boundary layer moisture. There was a severe to extreme drought in place over central SD at that time, yet it didn't have much of an impact on the tornado machine that tracked from north of Pierre to Huron on Aug 24.

 

[Chris Hayes]

What does everyone think of the improving drough situation over the northern Rocky Mountains. The drough situation has improved, and the CPC is calling for the drough situation to continue to improve with above normal precip. I would think that that could help things too.

 

[Paul Austin]

Let's not forget about the overall upper air flow pattern. A blocking pattern had a lot more to do with the lack of significant activity in 2006 than simple lack of moisture, IMHO. I'm no expert, but with the right upper air flow, return moisture from the gulf is inevitable. With that said, I really have no confident idea what to expect at this point. But as always, I'm hopeful.