An Interesting Model Run (Midwest Next Week)

[Joel Wright]

Okay, I'm sitting here with over 10" of snow on the ground, with temps about to go below zero for the next two nights. It'd be an incredible turnaround to say the least for us to be pushing 60 with a potential severe weather episode 5 days later, which is what the 12z GFS shows. Man that'd be freaking awesome though.

I can't wait to see how the models evolve over the next few days...

 

[Joel Wright]

Okay, I'm sitting here with over 10" of snow on the ground, with temps about to go below zero for the next two nights. It'd be an incredible turnaround to say the least for us to be pushing 60 with a potential severe weather episode 5 days later, which is what the 12z GFS shows. Man that'd be freaking awesome though.

I can't wait to see how the models evolve over the next few days...

Well I guess I'll quote myself. It has been an amazing turnaround. We've reached record temps already today. Nearing 60 already. 10" of snow was on the ground early friday morning. 48hrs later it's almost completely gone, except for the huge piles scattered around. What an incredible change in airmass over such a short time. Even looking at the real possibility of chasing tomorrow afternoon. (See the forecast thread).

You gotta love January thaws!

 

[Heidi Farrar]

I have to say that I've been pretty impressed with the relative lack of variability in the way the GFS has handled this system, from the first 240 hr run. On New Year's Day, I saved a screen shot of the 850 mb winds for 0Z WED, thinking of how ridiculous it looked (60+ knots over much of AR), and with the idea that I'd use this as my example for this year of why I will not allow myself to become too infatuated with long-range runs. With the exception of the timing being bumped ahead by about 18 hrs, here I sit, 5 days later, looking at 60 knots over AR on the 6Z TUE 850 mb winds. I might be ruined for the year!