An Interesting Model Run (Midwest Next Week)

[Brandon Sullivan]

Just glancing through the 18z models and also now the 0z models, after DVN mentioned a strong storm system possible next week.. Couple things caught my eye.

DVN

DAYS 8-14...ALL LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES INDICATE SEASONALLY STRONG
TO VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT REGION CIRCA JAN 8-11 WITH
HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION

I'm sure models are underestimating the snow pack.
Im also sure things will change. Just thought I would note the fact..

Would be nice to see it turn out!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Yea I saw that too and thought I was going crazy! lol Anyway about the snowpack we have seen fairly significant melting just today and I bet the snow will be gone in most areas by the end of the week, but you have to notice we are looking MANY days out, but I am optimistic since the GFS has been very consistent lately.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Just looked at the 1/9 00z run. This thing seems to be keeping its act together. Wouldn't it be cool if...naaah, forget it, I'm dreaming. But still...

 

[mike scantlin]

news years resolution: dont think about model runs more than 5 days out.

but man, im so desparate for a storm.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

AT THIS POINT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WAA...TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
GFS/ECMWF BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH MEANS PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVE...BUT THIS TOO SOON TO
TELL SO WILL JUST HAVE SHOWERS FOR NOW.

That was from ILX

YAY!!!!! I am very anxious to see DVN and DMX AFD's

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

AT THIS POINT...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS
OF WAA...TEMPS WILL WARM ENOUGH THAT PCPN TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
GFS/ECMWF BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MEANS PCPN COULD BE CONVECTIVE...BUT THIS TOO SOON TO
TELL SO WILL JUST HAVE SHOWERS FOR NOW.

YAY!!!!! DVN and DMX also mentioning Heavy Precip! DVN says winter precip, but looks too warm for me.. Im not sure.. But looks interesting none the less!

ADDITIONALLY...THE 12Z
RUNS INDICATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND THAT
WHAT WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY BUT THE EVENTUAL PATH WILL NOT BE
RESOLVED FOR ABOUT 3-4 DAYS

EXTENDED...DAYS 8-14...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT UPPER MIDWEST REGION IN THE JAN 8-11 TIME
FRAME. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL INDICATED WITH JET AXIS SUGGESTED TO STAY SOUTH OF AREA FOR POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH PLAINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG OR NEAR FAVORED TRACK FOR WINTER WEATHER. THIS QUESTION STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT TO CLARIFY. AGAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FOR OUR REGION STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL EXCEPT TO SAY WE WILL BE IMPACTED AND WITH EXISTING HEAVY ICE AND SNOW COVER...RISK OF HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL NEED MONITORING.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Wow, system still looking strong.. Interesting to see this.. System Cranking in plenty of moisture with the WAA kicking in. Definitely something to watch.. Maybe SPC will mention in the 4-8??? Nah, wishcast...

Image from 00z run

 

[Matthew K. Hartman]

I haven't looked at the models today, but yes the GFS has had a fairly significant trough over the central US for a couple of days now. It's been consistent and actually, has been performing much better than the NAM/WRF lately, so you never know.

Most impressive was the upper wave pattern... It indicated an insanely elongated trough right through the middle of the country and not to offend any women here, I won't even mention what the graphics in GrADS looked like! Seeing low/mid 50 dewpoints into southern Wisconsin was pretty incredible.

Lets hope it doesn't verify. Nothing worse than having half a foot of snow melting, then adding another 3 inches of rain to it.

Row, row, row your boat...

 

[Brian Emfinger]

The latest 4-8 day does mention this system:

[SIZE=-1] IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE WRN GULF WILL
PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE...SHOULD DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.[/SIZE]

The system looks nice but these strong systems this time of year always seem to end up being a disappointment. It will probably end up being a moderate risk with a stratus deck hiding a strong squall line.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Yep, SPC is mentioning it. The area outlined is south of me... The last couple runs have been somewhat disappointing, as they have made the system look more unorganized and take it on a further south track.. Waiting for 12z data now..

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looks too good to be true. The 12Z GFS shows 60-80knts... at 925MB!

 

[David Wolfson]

We're very likely going to be up in Rochester, MN, with a rental car and some time to kill through Monday at least. The progs have been showing a big storm somewhere in the area around then for awhile, and the 12Z indeed is now looking very interesting for severe in northeast IA, especially if the warm front would set up in the IA/MN border area snowfree (?) line. Blink-and-they're-gone winter season storms moving at 40kts+ with short days make for pretty crazy chasing, but WTH. Worth packing the extra stuff for our Thursday flight anyway.

Ed: To clarify what I mean by snowfree line, I mean the line south of which the snow has melted off the ground by that time. North of there is cold pooling over the frozen surface. Dewpoints and temps are progged to be well into the 50s an 60s with precip most definitely liquid. FWIW.

 

[Angie Norris]

Y'all can drool over snow possibilities all you want to...I'll play with the convective possibilites
Looks like chances for storms are slipping further east, with best chances for OK being east of I-35 and probably after dark as well (figures ) on Monday. However, looking further east on 1-9 and 1-10 ,things look pretty classic for severe in the OH/TN valleys, with temps currently progged into the 60s and Tds in the lower-middle 50s. Shear looks good, but CAPE is currently absent.
At 9 days out, still too far for anything definitive to be said, but still worth watching.

 

[Bob Hartig]

...the 12Z indeed is now looking very interesting for severe in northeast IA, especially if the warm front would set up in the IA/MN border area snowfree (?) line...Dewpoints and temps are progged to be well into the 50s an 60s with precip most definitely liquid. FWIW.

Help me out here. I track with you about the warm front, and I see fifties dewpoints stretching way up north for several days, but where's the CAPE? All this time, I've had my eyes on that 1,500 bullseye in SE OK/NE TX, and the latest Tues. 00z run maintains that area. Unfortunately, that does look like an after-dark scenario, as Angie has said.

So I guess I'm wondering what other scenarios folks here are seeing that my rudimentary forecasting abilities are missing.

 

[Karen Politte]

Hey Brian E. - comin' to ya from the Arkie deep freeze here. Yeah - this sytem peaked our interest a couple of days ago and I'll certainly be keeping tabs on it during the model evolution over the next few days (well, I'll have nothing else to do - I'll be at work! ). Although I am ever the pessimist and I'll always be expecting a rip-roaring squall line before tornadic bliss, I sure don't discount AR from January tornado events! The statistical and climatological skeins are in our favor......and for once, I'd just love to smell the moisture and see the lightning. I am still publicly denying that there is any SDS in our house, though! So - this system can shift as far east as it wants. If it goes far enough - it'll be in the AR Plains anyways and that's all good.

KL