Already 4000 of Cape?

[Andrea Griffa]

I was taking a look for cod maps and when I saw Ruc's forecast it scared the hell out of me: 4000 of Cape for Texas today...It's impressive that already at this moment of the season we see values like that. Probably it could be a signal that season will be anticipated (together with all we already said about Nina).

 

[rdale]

RUC CAPE forecasts are to be used with EXTREME caution... Analysis is okay, but not forecast.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

RUC CAPE forecasts are to be used with EXTREME caution... Analysis is okay, but not forecast.

That is true,Rob, but I found that lately those are improving. Anyway I have to say that I've always seen Ruc forecast and I've never seen so high values of Cape in the first half of March. Those are extremely rare.

 

[Gene Moore]

Hi Andrea,

If you look at the NCAR RUC product for that event there were hashed lines over most of the CAPE during the daylight hours....indicating a capping inversion. Also, the sounding showed warming just under 700 MB in sufficient quantity to keep a lid on convection. This is likely one of the main reasons SPC did not extend the outlook area very far south.

Another feature that gets into making specific forecasts was in the works yesterday. Noting the 850 MB winds, they were veered in advance of the convergence boundary through much of south and central Texas. In this particular situation these more westerly winds helped move moisture off and to the east of the dryline. This weakens convergence and limits moisture along the dryline. There are three major ways to break a cap, add moisture, increase convergence and increase lift. Two of these factors were decreasing with time......a big negative. This contributed to the reason I chose not chase this event in Texas.