Randy Jennings
Supporter
- Joined
- May 18, 2013
- Messages
- 780
As a southern plains based chaser, today has been on my radar for almost a week now, as SPC has had an area for almost a week now and they even started tweeting about today's (Thursday's) event last weekend. I've tried not to get too excited as models have kept the upper level low way out west from the start, and now that we are to the morning of the chase, that is still the case. But with a low west of I-35 in northern OK, a front, and a dryline, it seems like we will have enough lift to get the job done.
Moisture looks good enough to get the job done with models showing warm sector Td in the mid-60's to lower 70's in TX and the mid 60's in most of the rest of the area. The observed morning soundings already show surface Td of 64 at OUN and 68 at FWD.
Instability wise the morning observed soundings already show 2400-2700 CAPE at OUN and 2600-3400 CAPE at FWD. Models show CAPE reaching close to 4500 in TX and close to 4000 in a small section of central OK by mid-afternoon. Cap is already pretty small at OUN (CIN of -48) and FWD (CIN -75) on morning observed sounding. With temps forecast to be above 80 in TX and close to it in OK, I don't see capping being an issue by afternoon.
The best sheer appears to be OK just in front of the front. The dry line doesn't look like it is going to move very far east today.
So today is a chase day for me, but the target choice is agonizing. Do I leave work in DFW really early and go north up I-35 and park myself somewhere between the Red River and OKC for storms to begin around lunch time and hope to catch a tor before the storms head into the trees and Ouachita Mountains (not to mention it is early and temps aren't that warm yet), or do a stay at work longer and stay closer to DFW and hope for some structure shots and large hail, or do I split the difference and head up US 75 to US 83 and hope to catch a storm that headed towards Paris, TX in the afternoon (and hope that I don't have hail to my southwest at home and a tor to my north in eastern OK)? I guess I will give it a little more time before I make the decision. If it wasn't for the trees and mountains in eastern OK, that would be my target, although there is a chance that area lines out into a MCS fairly quickly because of the flow along the front).
Moisture looks good enough to get the job done with models showing warm sector Td in the mid-60's to lower 70's in TX and the mid 60's in most of the rest of the area. The observed morning soundings already show surface Td of 64 at OUN and 68 at FWD.
Instability wise the morning observed soundings already show 2400-2700 CAPE at OUN and 2600-3400 CAPE at FWD. Models show CAPE reaching close to 4500 in TX and close to 4000 in a small section of central OK by mid-afternoon. Cap is already pretty small at OUN (CIN of -48) and FWD (CIN -75) on morning observed sounding. With temps forecast to be above 80 in TX and close to it in OK, I don't see capping being an issue by afternoon.
The best sheer appears to be OK just in front of the front. The dry line doesn't look like it is going to move very far east today.
So today is a chase day for me, but the target choice is agonizing. Do I leave work in DFW really early and go north up I-35 and park myself somewhere between the Red River and OKC for storms to begin around lunch time and hope to catch a tor before the storms head into the trees and Ouachita Mountains (not to mention it is early and temps aren't that warm yet), or do a stay at work longer and stay closer to DFW and hope for some structure shots and large hail, or do I split the difference and head up US 75 to US 83 and hope to catch a storm that headed towards Paris, TX in the afternoon (and hope that I don't have hail to my southwest at home and a tor to my north in eastern OK)? I guess I will give it a little more time before I make the decision. If it wasn't for the trees and mountains in eastern OK, that would be my target, although there is a chance that area lines out into a MCS fairly quickly because of the flow along the front).