8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[Bob Schafer]

This is a good read:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/9553194.htm?1c

Compare these two images:

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?re...3&hh=19&loop=no

(That was Charley)

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?re...1&hh=23&loop=no

Notice the difference in size, although, just like tornadoes, size doesn't mean much regarding intensity. Frances and Charley have had very similar wind speeds. But, compare Charley's overall size to the size of Florida, and then do the same with Frances. Some of Frances' apparent size has to do with upper-level clouds that are more-or-less unrelated to Frances' threat.

However, as pointed out in the article you can access from the above link, Frances has hurricane and tropical storm winds that cover a huge area.

Bob

[edit] Here's an image of Andrew as he approached the Gulf Coast:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/rsd/images/andrew...Overhead_lg.jpg

Similar in size to Frances. (Again, I do NOT infer that the size is all-important)

 

[David Wolfson]

I'd say it's probably a good exercise for met students studying dynamics, but without doing the calculations there's a lot more angular momentum and energy I'd bet in Frances with a 20-mile wide eyewall than in the five-mile wide eyewall of Charlie. Frances is much bigger storm!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Thanks for the webcam link, Chris!

May I add.....here's the location of that webcam:

http://mappoint.msn.com/(etpe1m55mwipeaebc...%2c+The+Bahamas

Unfortunately, Frances should be there late tomorrow (Thursday) night, close to midnight, but the pics should be interesting well before then.

 

[B Ozanne]

The location of that webcam is still 1-2 days out from being hit. I'd really love to see what's happening in the Turks right now. I heard that this will be the first time the Bahamas has gotten a clean sweep like this. All the islands look to be hit from north to south.

 

[David Wolfson]

Providenciales is here: http://milk.tciway.tc/maps.htm

The last obs was from 8 a.m. Likely as not they've gotten the heck out of there!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Forgive me if anyone has ever posted these links in the past, but I really enjoy this site for hurricane tracking and probabilities ... here's the page dedicated to Frances:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-06A/

The latest forecast plot:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-06A/ftrack.html

The latest track plot:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-06A/track.html

Java animated storm movement:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-06A/JavaPlot.html

The primary page with all current tropical activity:

http://hurricane.terrapin.com/

 

[Ted Keller]

Can anyone tell me how the Eta model does with tropical systems as opposed to let's say the global models such as the GFS. The 18z Eta has Frances striking close to Miami; how much faith can be put in this forecast?

 

[JR Hehnly]

Here's a plot of the forcast tracks from various models. This image will update when there are newer models.
Image link is http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL062004.gif
[Broken External Image]:http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/AL062004.gif

edit for change of image link

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Models overlay

I haven't seen anyone post this yet. Here's a nifty handy-dandy models overlay that gives a quick and general idea of where each model puts Frances:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/p...ts/storm_06.gif

 

[David Wolfson]

The 18Z ETA and GFS runs look like they're from different planets. I'm going home. Check back in 72 hours to find out which was right.... :?

 

[Saul Trabal]

According to this, the winds are gusting to 165 mph!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical...00406_wind.html

:shock:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

The 18Z ETA and GFS runs look like they're from different planets. I'm going home. Check back in 72 hours to find out which was right.... :?

I don't know much beyond what I've seen from experience... The ETA really doesn't handle tropical systems well. It may be an issue of the ETA not including "good" code for handling tropical systems, or it may be a model domain issue (it's not a global model). Whatever the case, there's a reason why you don't see the ETA model mentioned in tropical system forecasts from the HPC/TPC... Hopefully someone on here can give a better answer LOL.

 

[Ben Pinette]

Looks like Orlando could be under the gun, again! Just when cleanup efforts from Charley were winding down. I've got a friend there who stayed through Charley, but says he's leaving if Frances takes aim and doesn't lose intensity after crossing the Bahamas.

Here's a couple local news links for Orlando and Miami. You'll have to subscribe for free membership though:
www.orlandosentinel.com
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/

Broward County Emergency Management
www.broward.org

 

[Tony Laubach]

I imagine a lot of people who stuck out Charlie won't play around with Frances.. with Charlie fresh in their minds, I'm sure it won't take much to send them running this time. Frances means bad news... and after Charlie, people know all too well. My prayers go out to the people in the path of what's shaping up to be a catastrophic storm...

 

[B Ozanne]

Over the past several hours I think Frances has gone through another "eyewall replacement cycle." My guess is that winds have dropped slightly (very slightly) but the TPC has tiptoed around that. No reason to give the public a false impression as the storm should regenerate itself overnight. In the morning I have a feeling we will see a leaner/meaner storm. Remember, Andrew was relatively compact in size. Any other opinions on this?

I'm anxiously awaiting the 11pm package.