8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[Scott A. Kampas]

Hurricane Frances is quite impressive on satellite at the moment and is forecast to become a major hurricane. With a possibility of landfall, a forecasting thread is now open.

Scott

 

[Dan Robinson]

Watching the position of the cold front later next week as this should play a big role in where (or if at all) Frances will come toward shore. Also looking to see if the weak low pressure center of interest off the SC/NC coast will be a factor, as the GFS doesn't have it moving much out of Frances' way. Still a long way out to landfall but definately something for east coast chasers to keep an eye on (no pun intended).

 

[B Ozanne]

Frances is progged to approach Cat 4 by 72 hours. Right now some of the models are taking this system right through the Florida Straits. It looks like landfall is going to be a certainty. Just a matter of where.

 

[Morgan Palmer]

The overall size of Frances has been a sight to behold today. On the floater images, it has exploded in aerial coverage.

Folks in Florida (including my sister) are already quaking in their boots... sandals... flip-flops.

mp

 

[Mike Johnson]

Latest (5:00 PM 8-27) NHC discussion notes:

"CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE"

I have a gut feeling this could be the big one
people have been dreading for some time. The
only hope for the East Coast is a front in the 5-8
day time frame.

Mike

 

[Thomas Loades]

There's always the chance that she could be the next Hugo. Of course, there's about equal chance that she could be the next Gloria. Either way, the turn from NW movement to WNW that the NHC is now expecting is a worrying development.

The structure certainly is impressive, though. I can see the eyewall on the IR image!

 

[Glen Romine]

Latest (5:00 PM 8-27) NHC discussion notes:

"CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE"

I have a gut feeling this could be the big one
people have been dreading for some time. The
only hope for the East Coast is a front in the 5-8
day time frame.

Mike

Long range model guidance steers the sytem between Florida and Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico - so the East Coast might be spared from this storm if this proves true. With the above normal sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin and in th Gulf of Mexico - I'm not surprised to see the this hurricane season turning so active. Frances still holding its own this morning - forecast is for some strengthening despite some increasing shear in the short term - but definitely looking more ominous as an eventual landfall of a potent storm looks very likely.

Glen

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Per the 11AM discussion Frances finished an eyewall replacement cycle and is in pristine condition at the moment. At 1945z, quite an impressive sight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...LOAT/VIS/20.jpg

I saw the GFS wants to park Frances on Jackson Square in New Orleans eventually. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Satellite estimates seem to be approaching cat. 4. We'll see what the NHC does with the new advisory, coming out in minutes. FWIW, the 12Z run of the UKMET model forecasts Frances to be an "intense" hurricane not far from the Miami area at 12Z on the 3rd (Friday morning). This one could be a nail-biter.

 

[David Wolfson]

Ouch. Cat 4 a/o 5 p.m. EDT. I've watched a few hurricanes in my time and have a bad feeling about this one.

 

[Bob Schafer]

TPC 21Z discussion (#16) has this to say:

NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.

I couldn't agree more.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Bob

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...hr156hr168hr180

Wow talk about a bad path. Scrape Miami without being disrupted too badly and likely enter the gulf barely degraded for round two. Any reason it'd weaken from where it's at now?

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_1000-500...RPTHK_180HR.gif
http://198.63.55.43/CONUS_2P5GFS_1000-500_...RPTHK_228HR.gif

 

[B Ozanne]

About one week out from a first strike on the US mainland.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Mike, when you say "Scrape Miami", you mean "off the maps", right?

BTW, Isabel was once a cat5, was she not? She made landfall as cat3, though, no? I kinda remember Isabel getting sheared pretty good before landfall last year, though, but TPC discussions are giving Frances a green light.

Bob

 

[Dan Cook]

Let's hope that model doesn't play out. Miami getting hit with a Cat 5 = catastrophy.