8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[David Schuttler]

70 mile wide eye , there will be some nice shots

 

[B Ozanne]

I have been watching the Melbourne radar. You are right though this radar is filling in with new convection.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Very interesting that the eye is so large (about 70 miles wide). I've seen this with weak and strong circulations, but in my limited experience I can't recall this with moderate ones.

Also appears that there is a smaller eyewall (about 30 miles in diameter) but the radar returns are very weak there.

Tim

 

[B Ozanne]

That inner eye wall is becoming better defined. It has almost run half way around the center. Should be intersting if that fills and completes the circle.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Several of the media I've watched this afternoon have also been commenting on the smaller area of tighter circulation (the eye within the eye) that may be tightening as convective areas become more intense along the northern eyewall. Would think this storm still has the potential to intensify slightly as it makes landfall -

 

[Jeff Snyder]

It's interesting to watch this hurricane inch closer to land. Satellite presentation looks to be improving, though cloud-tops are warming on the southwest side of the 'cane, which is fits the observation of weaker echos on the southern side of the eye versus the northern side of the eye. A burst of convection / cooling cloudtops has been rotating around the northern side of the hurricane, so it'll be interesting to see what happens as it hits the weaker, SW side... Latest recon has shown 959mb central pressure, though I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see that slightly lower on the next update.

EDIT: I see a dropsonde observation from 2231z recorded a central pressure of 951mb, a rather signficant drop since the latest vortex message (from 2041z), which had 959mb. Mind you, there is a diff between hurricane hunter reported pressure and dropsonde pressure. LOL Of course this is all hinging on me reading/decoding dropsonde observations correctly...

EDIT II: The 8pm advisory did have 951mb central pressure, but a recent recon report showed only 960mb center. An update from NHC stated that the "new" central pressure is 957mb, so it's not deepening as quickly as previously thought.

 

[Thomas Loades]

Now here's a whirlwind that looks like a cinammon bun.

[Broken External Image]:http://64.4.16.250/cgi-bin/getmsg/G...55c4401c49335bdbad1a9f6e814d3af014d29a474ec0c

 

[Carrie Halliday]

http://www.click2houston.com/index.html#

This is a nice graphic of Frances' course. I don't know why they want to turn her to the north, she wants to go west. I am a little concerned for New Orleans because even though they project her course to turn North, she may wander more to the west before turning north. Each projection takes her a little more west than the last. It is the L over TX that is going to shunt her N? I have heard that the front is going to pick her up, but it is so far N or her. Is going to be interesting to see what she does when she reemerges in the Gulf.