8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[Bob Schafer]

I see it this way:

Andrew missed Miami, but still did $30B in damage in 1992 dollars.

Some day, God forbid, some cat5 may actually strike a major metro area. I think that would be a $150B to $200B disaster, and thousands of lives may be lost.

There was plenty of talk about May 3, 1999 in Moore being a billion dollar tornado.....

Well, a cat5 is about like a 40 or 50 mile wide F3 with a 100 mile path before it weakens. Then add in storm surge and tropical storm force winds that extend out another 40 or 50 miles.

 

[Scott A. Kampas]

While we're discussing scenarios... Miami and New Orleans have been mentioned. A Miami landfall followed by New Orleans, does it get any more worst case? It nearly happened with Andrew.

Scott

 

[Pat Palmer]

Modeling continuously shows, over the past few days, a trend for the track changing from the Gulf Coast to the north and east. There is established zonal flow across CONUS, and a solid Bermuda High. Given the trend in models, and current conditions combined with historical patterns, I expect the storm to make landfall somewhere between SC and the Delmarva penninsula.

I would discount model predictions until day 7, which is still three days away. Gaston is going to be a major rainmaker for the southeast, and the expected frontal passage early to mid week will have dissipated by the time Frances reaches the area.

Once again, the major steering forces will be the zonal flow, and the Bermuda high. Historically, this scenario produces a major landfall in the eastern/mid atlantic coast. Look for landfall to occur on Labor Day.

 

[Joel Wright]

I expect the storm to make landfall somewhere between SC and the Delmarva penninsula.

I agree, I think the hurricane will end up tracking further to the right. It always seems to work out that way. After a hurricane reaches major hurricane status, and then makes a sudden turn to the right it seems to lost a LOT of steam too (Floyd), so hopefully that's what will happen..

 

[Bob Schafer]

A major right turn and weakening would be awesome, but here's some bad news:

Reported position at 3:00Z 8-29 was 18.3N 53.4W.

Position at 6:45Z was 18.4N 53.8W.

That's a serious left turn W from previous track.

 

[David Wolfson]

As a modeler of sorts, I feel compelled to leap to the defense of NCEP. I won't say you're wrong, Pat, because the models can certainly be that far off the beam at a week off. But I've been watching them progress over the last few weeks, and the evolution of the major features have been quite stable.

I wouldn't count on the the Bermuda high reverting back to its usual position in the next few days and opening the door up the east coast. That usually implies more pronounced troughing over the upper midwest but the energy is still hanging back over western Canada through the period. FWIW.

 

[Thomas Loades]

I expect the storm to make landfall somewhere between SC and the Delmarva penninsula.

I agree, I think the hurricane will end up tracking further to the right. It always seems to work out that way. After a hurricane reaches major hurricane status, and then makes a sudden turn to the right it seems to lost a LOT of steam too (Floyd), so hopefully that's what will happen..

Likewise, it could follow Gloria's path — while it was out near the Bahamas in mid-September 1985, its central pressure got down to 918 mb, which was a record at the time . . . but then it dropped to cat-2 and brushed the NC outer banks, then dropped to cat-1 and crossed W Long Island. After all the warnings of absolute catastrophe headed right into FL, of course.

Not to say that's foolproof if that happens again, because Long Island and NYC were spared a worse fate even from a cat-1 because the tide was out at the time. It was estimated that there would have been at least a 9-foot storm surge otherwise.

 

[B Ozanne]

Likewise, it could follow Gloria's path — while it was out near the Bahamas in mid-September 1985, its central pressure got down to 918 mb, which was a record at the time . . . but then it dropped to cat-2 and brushed the NC outer banks, then dropped to cat-1 and crossed W Long Island. After all the warnings of absolute catastrophe headed right into FL, of course.

I'd like to think that hurricane forecasting has made leaps and bounds in the past 20 years. And, in fact, it has. I'm still shooting for Florida, but I'll admit that anything is possible.

I mentioned this back during Alex. SST's are incredibly high this year. These are the kind of conditions that allow a CAT 3 to hit New England.

 

[Bob Schafer]

SST's are incredibly high this year. These are the kind of conditions that allow a CAT 3 to hit New England.

Sorry to disagree, but why do you say that, Bill?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anom.gif

SST's look pretty average along Frances' path, and in fact are slightly below average N of about lat 26N.

Bob

 

[Bob Schafer]

Hurricane Hunters website

Here's the link for readers who didn't already have it:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/welcome.htm

I would imagine that they will get some interesting stuff on there soon.

It's kinda tough to decipher their plans, but if I did successfully, their first flight to Frances departs at 16Z / noon EDT.

Another thought (two in one day! :lol: ):

This thread title is "8/27/04 FCST". Maybe we should use different rules for hurricanes, Tim, and omit the date, or just make it "late August" or something?

Bob

 

[JR Hehnly]

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/fsi.php...1.1415.250m.jpg
Zoom in on the eye, awesome eyewall structure!

More images in the gallery at:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/

 

[Joel Wright]

Frances is moving pretty slowly which makes me think two things. First it's moving slow enough that some of it's upwelling could start to have adverse affects on it's strength. Secondly, it gives the ridge more time to break down and allow a more right turn. Already the latest model forecasts are starting to steer it a bit more to the right at the end of the period. I would favor a landfall closer to upper South Carolina or North Carolina coast at this point. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but nevertheless if I lived anywhere along the east coast, whether it's south Florida, or North Carolina, I'd be getting ready now. There's plenty of time to prepare....

 

[Glen Romine]

I'd like to think that hurricane forecasting has made leaps and bounds in the past 20 years. And, in fact, it has. I'm still shooting for Florida, but I'll admit that anything is possible.

I mentioned this back during Alex. SST's are incredibly high this year. These are the kind of conditions that allow a CAT 3 to hit New England.

For the first topic, as a meteorologist I'd like to be able to say this as well - but in reality hurricane forecasting has not drastically improved. Yes, we do better today than 30 years ago, but not leaps and bounds better. Hurricane track forecasts have improved most dramtically, whereas intensity forecasts are quite poor and have only shown modest improvement. I found a pdf presentation online with some nice graphs of this here:

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/ams/confere...pdf/Stewart.pdf

There are considerable high anomalies in SST out near the Azores, which is a favored breeding ground for tropical systems this time of year, but most of the Atlantic basin is only slightly warmer than normal. Of course, any warm anomoly is significant - and even 1 C in warmer waters can have a noticeable impact on hurricane intensity - assuming that warmer water is sufficiently deep.

Glen

 

[Glen Romine]

Frances is moving pretty slowly which makes me think two things. First it's moving slow enough that some of it's upwelling could start to have adverse affects on it's strength. Secondly, it gives the ridge more time to break down and allow a more right turn.

The cyclone is still moving, so upwelling probably not a major factor right now, but you really need to know the depth of the thermocline under the hurricane to know this with much certainty.

All of the medium range forecast models agree that Frances will continue more or less westward for the next 5 days - and I'd certainly not disagree with that. What happens beyond this time is obviously less certain due to the weaknesses in model forecasts, but a landfall in the Carolinas is looking fairly unlikely. "Hunch" forecasting can sometimes be superior - but I'd be very surprised to see a sharp right turn. That said, it definitely wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Forecasting hurricane motions is tough to consistently do well.

Glen

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

All we can do right now is just watch the model variations as an intellectual exercise.

The trend in the 12Z long range models is definitely more to the right. The GFDL, UKMET, and GFS now all bring the hurricane north of the latitude of Miami before landfall. The UKMET is now the left-most, showing possible landfall near the middle FL coast. The GFDL is most to the right, aiming more toward the Carolinas. The GFS is in the middle, showing a long-angle approach (NNW movement) toward the upper east coast of Florida or GA/southern SC.

The big change is the GFS now forecasts a strong shortwave trough in the zonal flow to be moving across the Ohio Valley as the hurricane approaches. Apparently this is creating -- in the model world -- enough of a weakness in the subtropical ridge to enduce a poleward motion. Will be intersting to watch the trends.