B Ozanne
EF5
Notice how the angle of impact is becoming more oblique. Same thing happened with Charley. A directional change of just a few degrees can effect the landfall by several hundred miles.
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)
- Thread starter Scott A. Kampas
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Just as a little reminder for the folks who don't know... If you go to http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ , you can view a ton of output from many of the popular models used for tropical systems (GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, etc)... It does look like central eastern FL may be the landfall area, but we all know that things can change considerably very quickly... Just look at the forecasts for Floyd for a reminder of how sketchy track-path forecasting can be...
Bob Schafer
EF5
Eta now has a very interesting forecast for Frances' track:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...ta_slp_084m.gif
Bob Schafer
EF5
LOL, and then we have the GFS for 040906, 00Z!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_144m.gif
Talk about your models not being in agreement!Thomas Loades
She is intensifying now — the sustained winds are up to 125 mph, the pressure's down to 949 mb, and the NHC's latest advisory says "some strengthening IS forecast over the next 24 hours," rather than it being a mere possibility.
What are the odds the GA coast is still under the gun?B Ozanne
EF5
The GA coast is still under the gun, no doubt. I thought the models were converging on a solution here but the opposite is happening. One model takes Frances over Cuba while another makes landfall on the Outer Banks for a steamroll up the DC-NYC corridor.
GFS is really showing Frances bomb out right before landfall. I know the GFS doesn't handle hurricane intensity very well, but according to the model it is most intense just as it strikes land.Glen Romine
EF5
It will show this every time - as will the other models - because the initialized model state won't have the correct intensity of the system to start the model run with. Since the model starts with a weak tropical system, and the environment is favorable for a hurricane, the system will rapidly intensify in the model. A such, the operational GFS is not a very useful tool for examining the hurricane's intensity.
GlenKevin Scharfenberg
Blech...as noted, the models are all over the place again. Well, hopefully they converge on some sort of solution by Thursday morning, but we must leave Norman now in order to get the radar trucks in position. This will be my first hurricane chase, so I hope we manage to make a good intercept. Clearly, this will boil down to the amplitude of the trough developing over the southern plains and the downstream ridge. Not an easy forecast...let's cross our fingers it works out for the people in the path. Be safe, and see you all on the other side!Bridget Beddow
Good luck and Happy Hunting!!!!!B Ozanne
EF5
Thanks for the clarification on how the GFS handles the hurricane. I didn't realize it has to basically reform it for every model run.
Good luck to the hunters who are getting on their way.Zach Bailey
EF2
Frances' eye is now visible on San Juan, Puerto Rico radar (long range). A very impressive storm indeed.Johnnie Gambill
........hello all......
first post, long time reader
Here's your answer in Hurricane Marilyn...
"Marilyn continued moving northwestward over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. It hit the U.S. Virgin Island during the afternoon and night of the 15th as a strengthening Category 2, nearly Category 3, hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reported hail, an unusual occurrence for tropical cyclones. They noted an eye of 20 n mi diameter. The strongest part of the hurricane, the eyewall to the east and northeast of the center, passed over St. Thomas. Maximum one-minute surface winds at that time were close to 95 knots."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995marilyn.html
JohnnieZach Bailey
EF2
latest (31/1730z) hurricane hunter info drops the pressure to 942mb, however they only report a max flight-level wind of 105kt? That's quite a discrepancy - 942mb should support winds of at least 115kt if i'm not mistaken. Frances has continued to improve in satellite appearance also as the eye is contracting and the CDO cloud tops cool.
Any thoughts on the pressure/wind discrepancy?
hurricane hunter vortex message here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?Mike Johnson
Any chasers going to any of the islands in the path? I seem to remember
several chasers went island hopping before Andrew?
MikeDavid Wolfson
EF5
As we follow this monster, a scary tidbit I checked out this morning is that the Kennedy Space Center is only designed to survive low Cat 3 (~115 mph). Yikes! :shock:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL...i_gif_full.htmlSimilar threads
