Jeff Snyder
EF5
latest (31/1730z) hurricane hunter info drops the pressure to 942mb, however they only report a max flight-level wind of 105kt? That's quite a discrepancy - 942mb should support winds of at least 115kt if i'm not mistaken. Frances has continued to improve in satellite appearance also as the eye is contracting and the CDO cloud tops cool.
Any thoughts on the pressure/wind discrepancy?
hurricane hunter vortex message here:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
It may have just been an error... I checked the link, and the latest message has pressure at 940mb, with: "MAX FL WIND 137 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL."
The motion in the eye on that satellite loop is incredible!
The models have been signficant changes in their forecasts, for the most part. GFS generally brings the hurricane considerably farther east than earlier, with landfall in SC. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues its forecast of bringing the hurricane across the far southern tip of FL and into the Gulf as a strong hurricane. There is pretty poor consistency as others have noted, which, combined with the acure approach angle, will make landfall forecasts incredibly difficult. Thank goodness I'm not the one in charge of evacuating thousands (millions?) of people...