8/27/04 FCST: Frances (Atlantic)

[Ryan McGinnis]

Someone made the point in WX-CHASE that if this thing tracks the way the NHS has it forecast (and it may not; their error margin is huge this far out), then Cape Canaveral will take a really large hit. The buildings there are designed to withstand 125 winds maximum, and the cape is only 9 feet above sea level. Meaning that worst case scenario, the buildings are destroyed and the Cape is submerged under nearly 10 feet of water. Since we currently have all of our shuttles there and literally billions of dollars of assets in place, I really really hope the storm g oes further northeast, as we sure as heck won't be building any more space shuttles any time soon.

 

[B Ozanne]

I was thinking about Cape Canaveral. I can't imagine that huge Vehicle Assembly Building, originally used for the Apollo rockets, withstanding even 125mph winds. I was thinking it might be a blessing in disguise for our manned space program; which, as of right now is non-existent. It could be a big kick in the pants to get some new orbites.

BTW...our space shuttles are not insured.

 

[Tony Laubach]

BTW...our space shuttles are not insured.

AFLAC!!!!!

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

New discussion is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/020225.shtml?

Looks like it may track further west -- they were expecting to revise the predicted impact area a bit north this time, instead they've moved it a bit south.

What a STORM!

 

[B Ozanne]

Even AFLAC can't afford the space shuttle, 40% of the active fleet has been lost.

11pm discussion is out. I noticed a little westward jog in the track and the TPC just verified that. The discussion is a little confusing but my interpretation is the high to the north is strengthening and this could move the track farther south. Also of note is more favorable conditions lie ahead. SST's are warmest over the Bahamas and mid-level moisture will be increasing. CAT 5 just around the corner.

Edit: First watches just issued for Florida

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I agree about the warmer SSTs and less dry air. A look at water vapor loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/wa...tl-wv-loop.html shows the dry air that has surrounded the system for the past several days. Noticed, however, that there is considerably more moisture near FL...

The eyewall replacement cycle looks like it has just about ended, as convection seems to be increasing in the northern semi-circle the past hour or so. Additionally, the eye is taking on a more symmetric appearance the past few scans, so I'd think strengthening seems quite possible. It is difficult for a storm to maintain incredibly-strong strength (high-end Cat 4 or cat 5) for too long, so the longer we go by without further strengthening, the higher the chance that if Cat 5 strengthening is to occur, it would likely affect FL at the higher strength (all other things being equal)...

EDIT: I like how the track forecast graphic ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/...IF/020243W5.gif ) on NHC shows a Hurricane Watch for Lake Okeechobee. I've never though much that a hurricane watch would be issued for an inland lake...

 

[David Wolfson]

I posted about the KSC yesterday on this thread:

As we follow this monster, a scary tidbit I checked out this morning is that the Kennedy Space Center is only designed to survive low Cat 3 (~115 mph). Yikes!

The 125 mph is gusts (!).

The interesting 11 pm NHC discussion about the Real Data explains a lot.

 

[David Wolfson]

Jeff, as I recall there was a small but potent hurricane many years ago that passed over Lake Okeechobee and actually re-developed over its warm waters. Many people perished on and near the lake.

 

[Saul Trabal]

I imagine the AFLAC goose will end up somewhere in Idaho once this monster hits.

Idaho...Texas...Arkansas...Georgia...I think a little of that cooked goose will be scattered everywhere.

Question: **IF** this storm reaches Category 5, what are the highest winds it could reach before landfall?

:shock:

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

Web Cam link posted earlier:
http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

Looks like the guy running it has decided it's time to pack the hardware and leave. Probably a good idea.

Looking forward to tracking this hurricane with my students in my Earth Science classes the next two days. Thanks to all who have been posting links!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

what are the highest winds it could reach before landfall?

:shock:

That's the $100 question ... The $1,000,000 question is "WHERE will it hit?" ... At Cat 4, the storm is strong enough to cause catastrophic (or at least incredibly severe) damage, so then the focus turns to whether the eye strikes a highly-populated area or skirts primarily between cities. Intensity forecasting at this "high end" of the intensity spectrum will be sketchy at best.

 

[Colin P.McIntyre]

Wanted to say to all thanks for posting the links on this and all other
hurricanes this year.very interesting stuff. I pray people down there
get out soon. Seems to me in this day an age we should not have deaths
related to hurricanes.

 

[Joel Wright]

I am simply amazed the ridge is holding on this long and will continue to until landfall. This is the first time in a LONG time I can remember a ridge this strong holding on so long.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I hate to keep posting links from the same source, but this is a must-read:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/rss/9554341.htm

Also, I found this South Beach webcam:

http://www.evs123.com/mbeach/default.htm

You can access one cam there that gives you an image that is (ready for this?) 8000x2320 pixels. Got broadband?

[edit] Actually, since that's from a VEC (very expensive camera), it'll probably be gone tomorrow. I have a warm place in my heart for South Beach....been there about a dozen times. Please be kind, Frances.

 

[Saul Trabal]

what are the highest winds it could reach before landfall?

:shock:

That's the $100 question ... The $1,000,000 question is "WHERE will it hit?" ... At Cat 4, the storm is strong enough to cause catastrophic (or at least incredibly severe) damage, so then the focus turns to whether the eye strikes a highly-populated area or skirts primarily between cities. Intensity forecasting at this "high end" of the intensity spectrum will be sketchy at best.

I have an aunt who recently moved to Florida. Charley just missed her.

**sigh**

Here we go again....