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6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

Man... THis is going to be the best day by far it looks like and it will practically be a local chase for me, IF I could do it!! :(

I'm going to wish the best of luck to everybody out there, if ya end up in northwest/northcentral Iowa and there is tornadoes on the ground. Ya can tune into 107.7 FM and I may likely be on there for a while...

Looks very interesting, I agree though the best spot looks to be around the NE/KS/IA/MO borders. Just below the low pressure system which will enhance shear and should have plenty of daytime heating as tonights MCS's should be out of there by morow morning.
 
I agree with SPC's moderate risk, but I am surprised that there is not a hatched area for tornadoes. I am thinking they are probably holding back until things start to unfold. I certainly see the possibility of strong and possibly violent tornadoes tomorrow if we can realize dewpoints >70 to bring down LCLs. If surface winds could back a little I would expect a High risk. God it feels good to have a traditional setup where you don't go crazy pooring over data trying to figure out where the best potential is going to be. I think my forecast for tomorrow will be one of those ones where you just know you are in the right spot (no second guessing). I made my earlier post without looking at much in the way of exact locations of boundaries. After taking a close look I am going to skip out on my Cabelas trip and go straight to Topeka. I will move East from there if need be. Good luck to everyone tomorrow and be careful. Hopefully I will bump into a few ST members out there. I should be at my target early and will post location of wifi site in Topeka for those who are interested.
 
Well personally I am extremely excited about todays setup. Ken Fugate, Scott Peake, and myself (also taking my lil bro and dad on their first chases) will be leaving DFW at 6am to head up towards the Wichita, KS area. Best of luck to those out there, and if you see my truck (silver Frontier with a nerdy look to it :wink: feel free to say hi! Best of luck to those who chase today and be safe!
 
As of now I believe my target is somewhere north of St Joe Mo., Rockport ?? Of course that will change come tommorrow with more data i presume.

Look forward to seeing you guys out there

Fred
 
I really wish I could stick around home for one more day.... but alas, I'm leaving for wheat harvest this morning. I do think that I still may have a chance of watching the storms fire up in Kansas, hopefully. I'm not sure of my route, but I will be heading towards the KS/OK border somewhere (I hope it's not too far west to miss everything).

OT: I hope I'm not forgetting to pack anything, I'll be gone for 2 months...!
 
Free WiFi hotspots in STJ: 1. Best Western at Gower exit off I-29.
2. Public Library: take Frederick exit off I-29 and turn west ... go to Woodbine Road (first light) and turn left ... go past mall and enter the last access drive to the mall lot and the library sits just behind the mall - coffee shop has free WiFi.
3. Comfort Inn, also on Woodbine, has access as well, though you might have to talk the desk guy into it.
4. Love's Truck Stop also has WiFi for small fee ... located behind Best Western at Gower Exit.

My latest thinking, however - is that STJ will be a bit too far east, and we'll have to wait and see where convergence sets up during the day closer to the dryline - but will probably be an hour or so to the west along or near a Topeka to Seneca corridor. Keep in mind river crossings in Kansas City, Leavenworth, Atchison, St. Joseph, and Rulo (Neb). And the ground is SATURATED. Currently under flood warnings already ... watch for gravel suddenly turning into dirt roads ... you WILL get stuck.

Have fun tomorrow - and be safe.
 
OK...looking at the latest data, and I am going out on a limb here. The combination of data and gut feeling is leading me to choose Central to North Oklahoma. Moisture return looks good, and we also received very little in the way of convective development on Friday, so very little cloud cover to contend with. 24 hour surface plots show a triple point setting up in West Oklahoma. Forecasted CAPE values of 3000-4000, LI of -4 to -5, and dewpoints in the 70's are all leading me to stay closer to home tomorrow...probably the Enid/Ponca City area (This gives me the option to go north in a hurry).
 
Just arrivved in Ames Iowa, traffic and construction was a big mess going westbound on 1-80 in Chicago. Also, I found this interesting, I called ahead to a MicroTel Motel in Des Moines. I called ahead a hour before arriving, they said we got room, no problem, and took my name. I arrived at the motel, to get my room, I always payed cash for rooms and never been turned down. The motel clerk refused to take my money and insisted in a credit card, which I do not have one in my name. I left the place pissed off, said some choice words leaving. This is not the first time I encounter rude people in Des Moines, no offense to anybody from that area. Plan on playing the 1-35 corridor, will adjust a target later on.

The question is for Iowa, the early morning precip, and clouds, will it clear out in time, to get the sun out early to destabilize the atmosphere big time.

Mike
 
I also want to make light of the river flooding situation. Many rivers in the moderate risk area are going to experience minor flooding tomorrow afternoon. I would echo Mike Peregrine's caution about the gravel roads, as most of them would be lucky to dry up by tomorrow before getting hit again. There have also been many roads blocked off, including a road to get past the US 77 construction between US 50 and US 56 (Sunflower Rd.) That road may be okay now or will be later in the day. Flash flooding will be a problem in areas that are hit tomorrow in KS.

The ICT NWS office mentions flood reports would be greatly appreciated in their hazardous weather outlook (as of late Friday).

I am liking this scenario because of the broad area that could see some big storms. Just get the southern part of the low out of here. Storms have suddenly filled in on the southern part of the low (2:30 AM CST), raising concerns on convection holding off in the vicinity of the low. This overnight convection on the southern part of the low could complicate things more than we'd like to see.

I'll stick around home until 2 or 3, then make my decision on where to head.
 
This looks like a near perfect chase day. I won't even have to leave my own back yard if things verify.

We are super-saturated up here in southeast NE and northeast KS. Avoid dirt and gravel roads unless you've got a ginormous 4 wheel drive truck of some sort. And remember to wear your seatbelt. I suspect Johnny Law will be out in force.
 
This COULD be a high risk???
HA.... look at the latest SPC....

I can say I was definitely surprised :D ... in a good way that Iowa was in it.
 
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