6/16 TALK: Panhandles/Kansas/Colorado

[bvassmer]

The WARNING DECISION UPDATE talks about the local upgrade to High Risk.

HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC FORECASTERS AND AGREED ON LOCAL WFO SCALE
UPGRADE TO 'HIGH RISK' IN NW-SE SWATH THROUGH NW OKLAHOMA INTO OKC
METRO. (SEE WFO ENHANCED WEB PAGE) SYSTEMS OF THIS TYPE PRODUCE WIDE
SPREAD 50-60 MPH WINDS...WITH LOCAL AREAS TO 90 MPH AND VERY LARGE
HAIL IN NARROW SWATHS NEAR RFDS.

Amazing event could be unfolding.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Very interesting Special Weather Statement from OUN:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warn...ather+Statement

THESE WINDS MAY CAUSE SIMILAR TO THAT OF A TORNADO...SO YOU SHOULD
PLAN NOW WHAT YOU WILL DO TO BE SAFE.

IF YOU ARE NOT IN A STURDY BUILDING AND NEED TO FIND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...DO IT NOW! DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORMS ARE
TOO CLOSE FOR YOU TO FIND SHELTER SAFELY!

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out right now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0491.html

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm not sure that ive ever heard such a non-tornadic event given this strong of wording by OUN, as evidenced by special weather statements, local High Risk upgrade, and Warning Decision Updates (these products are awesome btw)...

SPS: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0506170225.wwus84.html
WDUs: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0506170133.flus74.html
Latest WDU: http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/latest.flus74.KOUN.html

HIGH END HP SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES FROM KVNX RADAR DEPICT LARGE MESO CIRCULATION IN EASTERN MAJOR COUNTY.
AT TIMES CIRCULATIONS FORM AT SMALLER SCALES SUGGESTING BRIEF
TORNADO THREATS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT JUST ISSUED FOR HIGH RISK AREA TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH END WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

DERECHO EVENT STILL ON TRACK AND IT APPEARS LEADING STORM (MAJOR COUNTY) WILL TRACK TOWARD OKC METRO.

 

[Anthony Silver]

All I can say is WOW!! :shock: Those PDS Severe watches are very rare, so I'm guessing this will end up being a pretty big deal. The storms look very impressive on OUN radar.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Ill be heading out in a bit... hoping to get some photos of powerflashes across the OKC metro area from a high spot I know of. I'll make sure to stay away from power lines and trees!

Aaron

 

[David Wagener]

Stay safe out there everyone. Its about to get a bit windy.

 

[Karen Politte]

I don't really know if this will be the event we all expect or not yet. I guess the only real way of verifying the severe threat is with storm reports and damage reports. I don't really have OKC news channels here at home - except on the little tv in the back bedroom. It's a bit much of a fuss to go through there and hook everything up just to watch a 5-minute weathercast, though.......

They've just boxed the whole leading edge of the derecho now with a SVR warning - which makes sense but it's interesting to see warnings being used in this way.

The gust front is WELL out ahead of these storms - which tricked a few out there intending to make it back to OUN before it all hit. Instead - they have a dry but very blustery drive home. As long as it stays dry, I guess.....

KR

 

[Mike Johnston]

10 counties warned in one bulletin. Well, OKC chasers, break out your night vision video recorders....we expect a full report. In the meantime, I'm going to research any small property/casualty insurance companies with concentrated coverage in the area, so maybe can short their stock when the market opens tomorrow am.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Has anyone seen a severe thunderstorm warning valid for TEN (10) COUNTIES?! http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0506170336.wuus54.html

I'm still wondering how this'll play out given that, except for the eastern-most part of the line, the gust front is considerably ahead of the convection. Typically, this indicates that the convective line is weakening -- the outflow is outrunning the convection so to say. Forward-propagation works best when the system movement is oriented perpendicular to the mid-level flow and movement is parallel to the flow...
We'll see how it plays out... Latest WDU notes that main threat may skirt just north of OKC metro, which I agree with...

EDIT: 75mph wind gust reported with Marshall OK mesonet site (north of Guthrie).

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Line is moving into OKC metro area, hope someone gets some shots of this outflow boundray coming in

 

[David Schuttler]

I was hoping Tulsa would escape this (had enough power outages the past 2 weeks) but I am seeing a switch to the east starting... I believe?

 

[Mike Johnston]

They've just boxed the whole leading edge of the derecho now with a SVR warning - which makes sense but it's interesting to see warnings being used in this way

KR

NWS Wichita did basically the same thing last night in a similar situation. Storm motions fast, possible wind speeds alone justify the warning...so I guess why not give those affected as much lead time as possible to go secure lawn chairs, trash cans, etc.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

I was hoping Tulsa would escape this (had enough power outages the past 2 weeks) but I am seeing a switch to the east starting... I believe?

Tulsa is within the watch so id be ready juts incase

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Note that ya'll can view the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar located in nw Norman, which has a considerably higher resolution compared to 88D, at http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/hondl/publi.../tdwr_0.5.shtml

For reference, you can view phased array, KOUN dual-pol, and other radar imagery, though they are not real-time sometimes (such as now).

 

[Anthony Silver]

Very well defined outflow boundary getting ready to enter northwestern sections of Oklahoma County at this time. Looks like the storms themselves will be about 10-15 minutes behind the initial boundary. I'm also starting to see some TVS signatures on the cell just NE of Muhall another one just appeared just due north of Edmond. I can't tell the TVS signatures are false or not, but things could get interesting for you folks down there.