5/22/05 TALK: Most of Central US

[Dick McGowan]

Yeah, notice where they put "Strong Cap" area. LOL. Someone was reading yesterday's threads. Gonna head out around 500 or 6, with Marcus Opitz. Gonna touch base with others to see if they wanna go. Gonna call this one a sure bust, but who cares, I have the day off. Gonna target right along the SE KS NE OK border as of right now. Capola bustola! LOL

 

[Marcus Opitz]

I do like the low 70s dewpoints at Chanute, ks and points south. Visible imagery shows frontal boundry nicely. This is in my neighborhood so I guess it wont be too much of a sting if nothing gets going.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm quickly losing faith in the RUC / SPC mesoanalysis... This has happened numerous times this year -- the RUC analysis is out to lunch when compared to soundings. I mean, at 18z, the mesoanalysis was showing ~4000 sbCAPE near Lamont, while the actual 18z sounding was showing only 1200, with 300 CINH. Ouch. This happened yesterday, as well as 5-11 -- the mesoanalysis signficantly overanalyzing CAPE and underanalyzing CINH.

May still head out, giving slowly increasing shear and what-the-heck-knows instability. The VAD / VWP from ICT and VNX radars show a pretty deep layer of easterly flow, which isn't entirely doing good for the low-level shear.

I'm not really sure what to think. Low 70 Tds in far southern/southeastern KS and norther OK east of I35, with easterly and northeasterly winds. Nice cu field in the southern two tier counties in KS, with some expansion into far northern OK.

Honestly, I have no idea what to do. I may meander northwards to the border to see what happens.

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Surface obs in Iola Ks from our weather station here at the fire station

Temp84.0,Baro 29.80 falling, dewpoint 66.

Current time 1457 cdt or 1957z

Winds between 8-10 mph from the east to the northeast

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The Lamont 18Z sounding has a surface dewpoint of ~62 with a mixing ratio of 12 g/kg. Modifying the moisture profile to conditions a little farther northeast (Ponca City/Winfield, 69ish dewpoints and 14 g/kg MR) and the cap is a little more breakable. It will still require temperatures near 100 or some local convergence max along the boundary.

Given the sounding I'm going to wait it out a bit longer in Norman.

 

[George Flickinger]

If I didn't have to work today, I would be parked under a tree with a big glass of lemonade in Bartlesville, OK watching the cu, waiting for a big hailer...

 

[Philip Flory]

Sitting off I-35 West of Arkansas City/East of South Haven. Have been here for about half hour. CU field is prevelant overhead... first real TCU developed a few min ago to my west, appears to be on the downward trend however. Nothing to do but sit here and wait.. feel im in a good area for now.

 

[Russel Parsons]

Like everyone else out there, playing the waiting game. Sitting here at McDonald's in Miami, Oklahoma using their wifi. I'm south of the cu field and front, and boy is it pretty warm here. Good luck to all, and hopefully something will develop.

 

[Alex Lamers]

BLEP equation indicating some potential for gusts to between 70-80 MPH with stronger storms and maybe a few F0/F1 tornadoes if storms ever develop. High LCLs will tend to enhance wind dmg potential but could be detrimental to any serious tornado threat. Also looking at potential for some rather large hail...possibly softball sized if storms can ever develop and tap surface-based instability.

However, relatively strong cap appears to be a negating factor AGAIN. 21Z Mesoanalysis showed an uncapped environment, but nothing yet occurring. Probably will turn out to be a repeat of yesterday.

Edit to include a couple lines from the Norman AFD...

WE BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR CONVECTION TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

and from Witchita AFD...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMER PATTERN THAN A SPRING ONE, WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES, SO ANY STORMS THAT FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OK.

Looks like both offices are throwing best PoPs into the other CWA. Will be interesting to see if storms even fire. I agree with Norman that it could be a nighttime thing.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Dick McGowan]

Something trying to go up in Osage county OK. Too early to tell. Gonna try and head out soon.

 

[Alex Lamers]

I agree with Dick on the Osage County tower. Looking at Oklahoma mesonet data, there is an excellent differential heating boundary in that area that is showing up nicely on color filled graphics. Best "actual convergence" that is analyzed by the RUC shows up to the west or north of this area...so it may be a bit deceptive. However it is developing in a region of highest dewpoint values and sfc temperatures around 86ºF. A little bit something extra showing up on visible satellite imagery.

Will be interesting to see if this develops or just gets suppressed by the cap.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[mikegeukes]

Alex mention the BLEP equation, I do not know how many of you know about the BLEP, here is a link to learn more about it.

Boundary Layer Energy Potential (BLEP) is an empirically developed algorithm designed to estimate the maximum potential surface wind caused by either straight line winds such as downbursts or the rotational component such as tornadoes.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/ScienceandEduc...n/blep/blep.htm

Click here for a worksheet developed to facilitate computation of the BLEP. The worksheet provides the values for the coefficients.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/ScienceandEduc...n/blep/BLEP.pdf

EDIT: New Mesoscale Discussion out:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0961.html

Mike

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well that chart would have made it easier...I was using information from several powerpoints. LOL 8) thanks Mike!

EDIT: actually using the chart gave me some higher values for dmg wind potential. Looks like it could be contaminated by the extreme CAPE values.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Dick McGowan]

That cell, for all of you out there, is 1-2 miles west of Pawhuska. (not wanting to jump the gun) Showing a SE movement.

 

[Chris Allington]

New MD out for Extreme S-central KS and N-central OK... discussing possible watch because of weaking cap....

good luck to all...

There continues to be a small radar echo far to the NW of Tulsa (Osage County I believe)... hasnt really gone either way in the past couple of scans...