W. Grant Dade
EF2
That MSD answers most of the elevated questions. You can see the RFD punching into the Elk CO storm, new meso forming northwest of Sedan.
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- Weather and Chasing
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5/22/05 TALK: Most of Central US
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
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David Schuttler
EF5
Tulsa has raised their chances for tornadoes , ne of Tulsa
Their graphic has a 10 to 20 %
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/images/hazmap/...ProbTor24hr.pngMike Johnston
EF5
Wow, what a complex! 10 Severe T-storm warnings; multiple mesocyclone signatures over Sedgwick and Butler Counties. What is interesting as these storms make their way S of the KS/OK state line, will be entering an area of higher vorticity generation potential; perhaps that is what the Tulsa office is concerned about.
EDIT: TVS right over Coffeyville now indicated, moving SE into OK!
Kevin Walter
EF1
Severe warning now for western TX Panhandle. Amarillo's 00Z sounding was actually quite impressive, thermodynamically. You know you're living large if you've got 2600 CAPE and -6.0 LI with a SFC Dwpt of only 58. God bless the TX Panhandle. This actually is old convection coming out of NM that is intensifying - roughly at the same time the KS complex is exploding. I can't find any wave on Water Vapor, but there must be something going on. It is cool to see the subsidence grow around the explosive convection in KS on the Water Vapor loop.Mike Johnston
EF5
What turning and twisting must be going on - 10 mesocyclone signatures now over S/Central SE KS and NE OK. Mesoanalysis showing 550 m2s2 of effective SR Helicity. Hope someone is awake.
Brett Adair
EF5
Yes, looks like things are about to get ready to turn into a marching MCS across the southland. The onset of the storms on TLX area spitting TVS markers along the convergent outflow/inflow region on the leading edge of the line. Some spinners do look possible in NE OK/NW AR over the next few hours where Td's are higher and LCL's are lower even though most parcels are elevated.
Edit : Portions of Craig Co. OK look to get into some descent wind damage/isolated tornado potential as this potent cell comes out of Nowata Co. I wouldn't be surprised to see damage reported there within the next hour.
Brett Adair
EF5
Three areas of concern currently for wind damage...
1 . Entering NW Washington Co OK where a persistent meso has been indicated and Tilt 1 volumetric scans have indicated drier air coming into the system in part strengthening the outflow on the leading edge of the developing bow.
2. Craig Co OK where a persistent TVS has been indicated as stronger inflow and outflow has been noted causing a nice broad area of rotation on the forward flank of a supercellular system that is currently evolving into linear mode.
3. Finally, Along the Ottawa Co OK/Newton CO MO entering McDonald Co MO area. A strong bow has devloped and somewhat veered the ESE mean flow and turned more in a due southerly nature. Tilt 1 BV pixels of -55KT have been noted racing towards the south AOA 50KTs on the last 3-4 frames. 70mph winds are very likely with that set of storms.
Hail of 2"+ in diameter will be possible with any storms that go severe this evening.Mike Johnston
EF5
Can see a bow out developing w/ Craig Co storm on the storm relative velocity radar view; at same time storm movement just spiked to 57 mph!
Nice prediction, Brett!
Brett Adair
EF5
Thanks! I see that we actually did get some reports of trees down in all three of these areas.Similar threads
