4/24/10 NOW: GA,AL,MS,LA,TN,KY,AR

Two storms in south-central AR have recently gone tornado warned; the most impressive-looking (probably only because it's closer to the radar) of these is the Grapevine storm which is actually potentially problematic for the major center of Pine Bluff. Will need to watch that one closely - the storm had mid-level rotation and impressive reflectivity structure, but within the last couple of scans the rotation has translated more to the lowest level scans.

KP
 
This whole system has been getting bigger...

This whole system has been getting bigger than the original forecasts had called for all week. Current SPC outlook has placed central and southern Illionois in a moderate risk area with 10% or greater probability of significant, long track tornadoes. Dewpoints in Springfield have been as high as 61 this morning and a continued south wind will continue to pump moisture into the area with dewpoints in the mid-60s in southern Illinois and down into Tennessee. One thing that is interesting is that this system hasn't moved eastward nearly as fast as the models have been indicating which has resulted in the threat areas shifting toward the west and north as compared to earlier forecasts.

And then there appears to be another major system coming into play for next Friday with SPC already forecasting severe storms on 4/30/2010 from Texas to Nebraska.

Spring in tornado alley, it just gives you goose bumps (or at least makes your hair stand on end at times)
 
Another heads up concerning weathertap.. it's loading at a snails pace, probably lot's of bandwidth being used on on their server. Pine Bluff, AR. and Meridian MS. under the gun right now with strong TVS's closing in on both of those cities.
 
A storm with a very nice hook echo is headed for New Augusta, MS (SE MS). Right now, that looks like the storm with the most potential for producing strong tornadoes. Effective Sig Tor is 6 where that storm exists. The outbreak is beginning to unfold...
 
The storm SW of Pine Bluff has started to look very dangerous. Nice hook starting to develop and I think a large tornado might be ongoing.

Most of that "rotation" and hook was due to leading edge outflow combining with outflow from a second storm. No signs of any tornado at all - and using a BREF image that looks like a hook to determine that a tornado (large or small) is occurring can be a dangerous assumption.
 
Most of that "rotation" and hook was due to leading edge outflow combining with outflow from a second storm. No signs of any tornado at all - and using a BREF image that looks like a hook to determine that a tornado (large or small) is occurring can be a dangerous assumption.

Interesting recent radar image from southern MS. What is the cause of this "doughnut"?
 

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my father and I are sitting here in Huntsville, AL currently awaiting for storms to fire with some late morning, early afternoon heating. Lots of low level clouds flowing into the storm from the east, with high base above it. The first line went through about an hour ago, which didn't produce anything notable.
 
The preferred storm mode appears to be isolated supercell...not good. Storm developing west of Jackson is rapidly organizing. Three supes are entering or have entered western AL. These storms are already producing tors and are becoming more impressive with time.
 
Several chasers on chasertv.com are on this storm in SW MS...

http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/213_connor-mccrorey.php
http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/195_ben-holcomb.php
http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/241_kris-hair.php

I thought I could see a tornado (warning says confirmed large tornado) on Connor's stream a few moments ago. It looks like they're on dirt roads (the three are together, by purpose or accident), and the rain is coming. It looked like Ben fishtailed at least once about 10-15 mins ago on this road.

EDIT: Connor may have been blown off the road. I saw him drift left, left, narrrowly (!) miss a semi on the right, then what looks
like slide off into the shoulder in very strong winds. Video quality is just bad enough that I'm not confident enough to act upon what I saw. Trying to discern what's on Ben's video now...

Looks like either Ben or Kris pulled Connor out now, as he's back on the road. May be an interesting story... There's a power pole broken and laying on the ground to Ben's immediate right where it looks like Connor's truck was.

EDIT 2: Hair is on a live-call now with TWC. He said his group of 3 was in the outer fringe of the tornado, but everyone is okay.

EDIT 3: Greg Forbes has GR2AE on TWC now... Too bad he's smoothing the velocity field!
 
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