4/15/2006 NOW: KS/NE/MO/IA

[Bob Schafer]

I just took this outside my motel in Salina KS (at I-135 and Crawford St, looking N). WF causing some cu to pop up (lower part of photo). It seems it will be a while before any real moisture gets here, though.[attachmentid=134]

*edit* Well, it sure looks like the WF, but having just looked at sat imagery, I retract that analysis...

 

[Chris Allington]

Moisture is begining to increase in areas following the passage of the forming warmfront and some moisture is even making as far north as southern NE with Beatrice reported a dp of 54 and hastings at 53... we have some clouds and showers around here in omaha... hopefully this moisture can remain and wont mix out with surface heating during the afternoon.

 

[Shane Adams]

Sitting in Topeka, typing this as Mickey applies Rain-X. I've sat out a lot of these iffy type days and watched the tornado pics appear online the next day, from environments that no one expected. I figured this time I'd try out the other end of the spectrum. No scientific/meteorological analysis from me...I'm just waiting for convection. If you're of the RUC persuasion, extreme NE KS/NW MO might not be a bad place to be later today.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Traffic Advisory:

If you are chasing in se NE today, beware of major traffic in Lincoln. The University of Nebraska is holding a Spring Football game, Softball, Baseball, Track meet, and exhibition Volleyball game all in Lincoln. There will be close to 70,000+ attending these games. Avoid Lincoln, especially downtown, and I-80 between Lincoln and Omaha.

On a good note, clouds continue to linger in eastern NE keeping temps down and lowering the Td depression.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The Cu that Bob is noting to his northeast is likely associated with these rounds of elevated convection popping up in NE Kansas. From KC the cloud tops are high and whispy. One nice thing about them is that hopefully they will weaken what looks to be the somewhat grim warm temps at 850mb.

While there is some surface convergence noted in northeastern Kansas with these elevated 'rainshafts' the deep convergence is located along a corridor running from the tip of NW Missouri into eastern Nebraska, through the OAX area at this time. Surface dewpoints are currently in the upper 50's to near 60, which is nice, but I expect mixing will occur with dryline motion again today, which will mean that a person will have to be in the right spot to make an intercept (if the cap breaks, that is ... which is a big "if").

My guess is extreme NE Kansas into NW Missouri is a good place as far as moisture is concerned. Along with Shane's comments, days like this regularly hold surprises. EDIT - again today I'm noticing LCL and LFC numbers that are high. These are going to HAVE to drop for surface-based convection, which I don't know - maybe as the afternoon wears on, they will. This is reminding me of the 6th a bit.

Whether or not we actually see storms ... well, that's another story.

 

[Daniel Christianson]

The Cu that Bob is noting to his northeast is likely associated with these rounds of elevated convection popping up in NE Kansas. From KC the cloud tops are high and whispy. One nice thing about them is that hopefully they will weaken what looks to be the somewhat grim warm temps at 850mb.

While there is some surface convergence noted in northeastern Kansas with these elevated 'rainshafts' the deep convergence is located along a corridor running from the tip of NW Missouri into eastern Nebraska, through the OAX area at this time. Surface dewpoints are currently in the upper 50's to near 60, which is nice, but I expect mixing will occur with dryline motion again today, which will mean that a person will have to be in the right spot to make an intercept (if the cap breaks, that is ... which is a big "if").

My guess is extreme NE Kansas into NW Missouri is a good place as far as moisture is concerned. Along with Shane's comments, days like this regularly hold surprises.

Whether or not we actually see storms ... well, that's another story.
[/b]

I tell you this is a BUST or LUCK situation , im currently south of Beatrice NE, i dont like to wait a long time because i think most can agree we get pretty bored when nothing happens or looks girm for a while... i think a few storms will pop up, particuarly we might be in luck for supercells, and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes these are days we must chase... because some of these days turn out to throw us a big slap in the face with I TOLD YOU SO.... people nabbing storms and having sturctre and all ok ill shut up... im prb going to head West aways , im on lunch break.... good luck to all out there... and at least its not 90deg today!

Again good luck

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I'm in Concordia right now. It took me about 45 minutes to find a wifi spot. If anyone else is looking for wifi here, go to the Cafe Gaston on the nw side of town. I am pretty content with my location right now. I have plenty of time to watch how things unfold before moving. It is kind of a guessing game on how far North decent moisture will make it and how far South the cap will break.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Nice CG producer over Norman right now. This may or may not be a good thing for this area later in the day, hopefully it will contain temperatures and drop some moisture and outflow boundaries, maybe we'll get lucky in OK today but last time I was holding unto luck nothing happened. Funny how I mentioned I'll chase if anything pops up near Norman.. hmm over Norman? For you folks chasing in KS/NE hopefully this stuff remains rather isolated because it could inhibit moisture return to that area. I should also note that the dryline is beginning to mix eastward and is stretching from NC OK SW near Altus. Dewpoints are in the low 60s across much of the state per 12:55PM OK Mesonet analysis. This moisture really needs to get a move on though to reach northern KS by initiation. Why do events like this always occur on weekends when I'm supposed to be doing research papers? Bah oh well. Vis. sattelite is not showing any surface based development yet along the dryline but we should see Cu fields going up within the hour as dryline mixes east into areas of higher moisture. Hopefully we'll see 18Z soundings from TOP, OAX, SGF and perhaps OUN.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm in Concordia right now. It took me about 45 minutes to find a wifi spot. If anyone else is looking for wifi here, go to the Cafe Gaston on the nw side of town. I am pretty content with my location right now. I have plenty of time to watch how things unfold before moving. It is kind of a guessing game on how far North decent moisture will make it and how far South the cap will break.
[/b]

The Super 8 there in the middle of town by the McDonalds has good wifi. I was on it from the parking lot south of the McDonalds.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Take note of possible developing cu field just west of Wichita via satellite....there's also some kind of boundary signature appearing on ICT radar at this time. Sharp dry line evident with 62td in Sedan, KS / 38td in Anthony, KS.

 

[GPhillips]

CINH was 759 J/kg on 18Z TOP sounding for a surface parcel (using 17Z ob as surface conditions). Dewpoint temp has gone up 4 F since then so CINH only a little over 500 CINH for surface parcel. Progress is being made.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I relocated from Salina to Topeka, and I'm not too confident that that was a great idea, since the D/L (and one area of convergence) is back along I135, but with LCL's so high over there....

I see we now have one little radar blip of ~45dbZ just SE of SLN. At least I'm in a spot where developments may well come to me.

BTW, great WiFi spots here at I-70 exit 356.

 

[rdale]

"CINH was 759 J/kg on 18Z TOP sounding for a surface parcel (using 17Z ob as surface conditions)."

Why would you back up the 18Z sounding with 17Z surface data?

That's quite a cap on TOP's sounding though, 10*C at 808mb! Looks like anything this afternoon would be more over western/central KS than Topeka-ish.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

"CINH was 759 J/kg on 18Z TOP sounding for a surface parcel (using 17Z ob as surface conditions)."

Why would you back up the 18Z sounding with 17Z surface data?

That's quite a cap on TOP's sounding though, 10*C at 808mb! Looks like anything this afternoon would be more over western/central KS than Topeka-ish.
[/b]

Actually, most any 18Z sounding will use 17Z surface data because the NWS offices launch the balloons an hour before the synoptic time (or off-hour time).

The cap on Topeka's sounding is mighty impressive---will take same significant cooling aloft to cause a storm to develop in those conditions. Further north and west, however, an impressive cluster of Cu/TCu has developed in central NE. This area has the advantage of lower LCLs, higher low-level vorticity (because of the sfc low), and proximity to the cooling aloft from the vort max. Thus, I would expect this area to be the primary area for supercells (and possible tornadoes) through the afternoon/evening (as most anyone could have guessed!).

Further south, I'm optimistic that some convection could form on the north side of the dry bulge invof Concordia, KS. However, there is quite a bit of work to do on the cap. We shall see...

Gabe

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Why would you back up the 18Z sounding with 17Z surface data?
[/b]

Most soundings are actually launched closer to 1 hour before the synoptic time, or 11Z/23Z (in this case 17Z) so that's the most appropriate surface observation to plot on a sounding. The surface T/Td haven't changed too much from 17Z to 18Z so it shouldn't be too unreasonable. Dewpoints struggling to reach 60F over the target area as expected.

The TOP 18Z sounding is indeed quite capped, but there is some massive CAA in progress in the mid-levels (note the cold surface temperatures behind the cyclone in western NE and northwestern KS). There is also pronounced backing with height from 2-3 km MSL on the profilers (especially Fairbury). So I think initiation is a given, and with such CAA aloft there will probably be too many storms around by 5 pm. Add that to the high bases and I'm still pretty negative on many tornadoes today. There will probably be some good storms with strong shear before the cold pools take over, so good luck to anyone chasing.