3/4 FCST: Thursday Southern Plains

I agree with Kevin - this is April 6, 2001 all over again. The good thing is, this time we know we're screwed. Our plan is to get down to DFW by noon, hope the ongoing line of storms SW of there (which I expect to be the same cluster currently down by MAF) hasn't made too much progress NE, and let the line come to us. The ETA shows backed surface winds along and just west of I-35 through 21z, which may be the only hope we have of tornadoes, at least viewable ones. As I said yesterday, this ain't gonna be an easy chase, but I'm ready for the challenge.

As of this posting, the area from Stephenville to brownwood looks best, with backed surface winds to almost 90 degrees. This will no doubt change/fluctuate during the day, but if any areas like this can develop along the line, there's a good chance of at least brief tornadoes.....and with energy like what we have tomorrow, a quick tornado doesn't necessarily mean a weak one.
 
Dont forget about So. Illinois towards Bootheel of Mo. timing & some sunlight should get things hopping here very well tomorrow. I dont get off work until 10 :( but wife will be out & hopefully we can both get some action around here. It POTENTIALLY looks good for sig. Severe weather.
Kevin
 
Rather than commit to a specific area, I am going to play the area just south of the warm front/precip shield. Probably end up starting between Pauls Valley and Davis.

Going to be an "interesting" day...

Chris Sokol/KD5ILI
Mobile Weather Concepts
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
 
High risk going to be issued soon in 1630 outlook.

A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
Gosh I wish I was there with you. Rest assured there are many on the weather forums over here watching this situation as it develops - stay safe everyone chasing today or not chasing but in the risk areas!
 
note to posters and analysis

Posters,

Please provide links to text products. Also it would be nice to add some analysis with these and not simply paste large blocks of text that most will have seen anyway. Remember, anybody who knows where this site is also knows where the SPC site is.

Here's some things I've been looking at:

The latest RUC demonsrates an impressive dryline punch into central Texas between 18-22Z. This area in co-located with the intersection of
jets and the best instability and could create extremely favorable 0-
1k profiles as winds should back locally there. I would make for
south of the metroplex, maybe fifty miles south of Waxahachie. I
would stay on the interstate if possible today to give myself a
fighting chance in terms of interception speed and vectors.

Skies look to clear as the dry punch works
in; it's already visible on the channel imagery and should work
north to south. However as the midlevel winds begin to veer (good
for directinal profiles) the debris from ongoing convection will
tend to spread more to the east than north and may replace the cloud
cover you lose. Instability is a problem with this setup, but I
think it can be overcome.

You're going to need data or a nowcaster today or don't even
bother. It's a fast-moving grungy mess with LCL's so low that
clouds will scrape the ground, making visual identification of
features difficult. Be careful!! Good luck to all!!

Amos
 
GOING TO BE A HIGH RISK DAY!

...AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED
AT 1630Z...


A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISSUED AT 1630Z DAY1
OUTLOOK. AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN
TX...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. REFER TO THE 1630Z DAY1 OUTLOOK
FOR MORE DETAILS.

http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0403041528.acus11.html

I wonder how far this will spread.
 
Just some gee-whiz output from the 15Z RUC. I plan to compare these panels after-the-fact to see how well the RUC did.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0421.gif - 15Z RUC 06h (for 21Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0500.gif - 15Z RUC 09h (for 00Z)
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/mar0503.gif - 15Z RUC 12h (for 03Z)

Blue - storm relative helicity; red - convective precip; purple - surface winds

Basically at dusk the RUC has a line from TUL-FTW with isolated cells out ahead in E and SE OK. Will be interesting to see how all this pans out.

Tim
 
Impressive radar images on southern plains this morning

It looks like a LEWP with some embedded supercells/circulations. It seems pretty early in the day for a PDS Tornado Watch to be issued. Who knows what could happen this afternoon when more discrete storms could develop? That squall line must be sending out a strong outflow boundary. I think where ever that boundary goes, is where the big storms will initiate.

It is starting to look like a heavy rain event here in Northern IL, SPC has removed extreme northern IL from todays convective outlook, despite the fact that the temperatures could be 60-65 here by tomorrow morning. I'm hoping for some hail/gusty winds, and some brilliant CG's.

GOOD LUCK CHASERS! :D
 
I wish I still lived in Abilene

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 AM CST THU MAR 4 2004

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 1215
PM CST...

AT 1141 AM CST...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED JUST WEST OF BUFFALO
GAP...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. PEOPLE IN EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY FROM ABILENE TO POTOSI TO LAWN
SHOULD TAKE COVER NOW!

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF TAYLOR COUNTY AND WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MERKEL.

LAT...LON 3231 9992 3216 9980 3231 9964 3247 9973
 
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