2018 severe wx/chase season discussion

As others have stated the models aren’t looking promising for June for most of the CONUS and areas that most of us are open to chase. A fairly disappointing season (if you can call it that), lots of wait around and see this year for most of us really with that extended winter we had in April. I won’t go on though because we all know how bad it’s been. The 4 tornadoes I saw in North Central Kansas on May 1st near Concordia and Tescott were my season highlight so at least I won’t go home empty handed. I’ll hope for a couple warm front days later this month and July here in Illinois. Just hopefully we don’t fall victim to another drought year, it’s starting to expand up here, need a good MCS pattern to take shape.

Hopefully the summer and falll can offer us up some hope, because for many of us I know it’s been a long winter and especially a long spring....hang in there

This might be the first season I consider checking out the monsoon.
 
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Let's play a game. At the top is the Day 2 Outlook 1 for tomorrow 6/6/18. At the bottom is the Day 2 Outlook 1 for a well known chase day. Name that day and explain why that day turned out huge and tomorrow will be a bust. Using the term "Mesoscale Accident" = Automatic fail.
 

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I know it's hard to objectively assess a chase season (that's not technically over yet) since we all have different perspectives, days/areas we can chase, personal preferences, etc., but consider the following about 2018.

The early season, particularly April as a whole, since it's not uncommon for quiet months of March, was a complete no show. A small handful (if you can even call it that) of days accounted for most of the tornadoes, with the majority of those over Dixie Alley.

April finished with, by far, the least severe weather event days on record since 2000 with only five. The previous low was 10 in 2013. Many chasers did not venture out at all and I only chased once in April on a lackluster day on the 30th.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/event-days-online.php

May was slow, but not the absolute worst in comparison to other years in the past decade. However, just three days come to mind that accounted for the majority of the tornadoes or otherwise noteworthy chase days: 5/1 (Culver), 5/27 (Wyoming) and 5/28 (Colorado landspouts).

Many saw tornadoes, but aside from 5/28, those events were very localized and fairly short-lived. As a whole, this entire year has lacked quality (subjective take) and quantity (observed fact).

Using Jim Tang's clustering technique, we are probably experiencing one of the worst, if not the worst, years for "quality" tornado days in most of our chase careers. We haven't had a legitimate non-localized, supercell tornado outbreak in the Plains this year. Speaking of supercells, even those have been relatively hard to come by, generally isolated and fairly short-lived.
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2018/03/30/best-time-year-schedule-storm-chasing-vacation/

If this seems like opinion, note that we've had a record low number of intense (EF-3 or stronger) tornadoes year-to-date (YTD). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-year-thats-a-record/?utm_term=.7807748b91e4

We're currently in the midst of the least tornadoes YTD since 2005. Unless tornado counts miraculously ramp up over the next 1-2 weeks, we'll stay below the pace of 2013 and fall below 2005.

On a personal note, I have still not witnessed a tornado this year (not counting a barely visible landspout in Nebraska) and I've gone 0 for 21 in chases this year. It's not like I haven't been out. With that said, I've seen more photogenic storms this past month than the abysmal May of 2014, so it's not necessarily my worst chase season on record, but after seeing tornadoes in April or earlier in the first four years of my chase career, it's June and I've seen none this year.

I know many chasers who've gone out two days or less, with some having not chased at all yet this year. Not everyone is fortunate enough to live in the Plains and/or have a flexible work schedule to go out and chase on a whim.

The year is not over yet, but the prospects are fairly bleak. All we can do is stay optimistic, be thankful for what we have seen and look ahead to the future.
 
Since I have forgotten what a slow moving trough and 2-3 day sequence looks like, the 12Z GFS Para has a 3 day sequence for the Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin Days 9-11. We know to treat Day 10 with a grain of salt, but that is what it would look like on a model, lol.

Oh my the 12Z ECMWF has the boundary in Kansas which is a bit different. Oh well it is centered around Day 10 and this is 2018.

Ending on a positive note, it is North prime time by climo. Can we reel in a real trough?
 
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...wouldn’t you agree 5/27 it was most certainly a fairly localized mesoscale accident?

Also I think 5/29 in KS/OK is worthy of being included in the list of noteworthy chase days - not great, but at least as good as 5/27and 5/28.
I think I was a bit overly fixated on tornadoes, as 5/29 was one of the rare chases that featured an isolated supercell that had the potential to produce, making it a noteworthy chase day to many. It also had the Dodge City area tornadoes that only a few chasers managed to target.

5/28 was an odd event, as I would place it into the mesoscale "accident" category. However, Kansas and Oklahoma also had tornadoes that day, as well as Utah and Iowa. (South Carolina too) That event could have produced more tornadoes if new outflow didn't disrupt remnant outflow, plus moisture was seasonally unimpressive across southwestern Kansas.

5/27 was fairly localized too. Almost every event this year was localized, at least the ones that featured visible tornadoes. There weren't many of those at all, though.
 
And @kevin-palmer I'm with you, I don't really enjoy chasing the high plains. Mostly out of ignorance, I don't really know anything about the terrain or how it works out there. I've read up on it and still don't get it. Give me that sweet Illinois warm front any day of the week
 
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Speaking of the high plains. Looks like our long lost friend wind shear will be showing up in the upper Midwest late this weekend...
 
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I came back from my chase trip on Monday and did not do any analysis or armchair forecasting yesterday, but I remember back on Saturday or Sunday thinking Wyoming looked good on the models for Wednesday 6/6, similar in some ways to 5/27. But I decided to come home anyway, as it didn’t look like much would happen before then and it was a long time to wait around, especially since I was missing a family event back home if I stayed out there. Then from the SPC and Cheyenne discussions after the weekend the setup wasn’t looking as good, essentially slipping into Thursday (which would have been my absolute latest date to fly home anyway). I always keep an eye on things after I get home to make sure I’m not missing anything, and I thought I was good when I checked SPC storm reports at 8:30CDT last night but For whatever reason the WY tornado wasn’t yet shown on there (although the report is as of 6:45CDT) and am just learning about it now on ST. Yet another bad decision on my part. Oh well, what are the odds I would have been there anyway [emoji19]
 
Speaking of the high plains. Looks like our long lost friend wind shear will be showing up in the upper Midwest late this weekend...

Yes, this morning's 12Z models get a bit frisky around hours 84-108. If the NAM at the end of its range is to be believed, Rochelle, IL (infamous for 4/9/15) is the place and Sunday evening is the time. GFS of course is worlds different, but suggests some play somewhere in eastern Iowa. Then advertises very strong CAPE over much of WI for Monday evening. At least it's something to monitor, although regional office AFDs overnight were downplaying any severe potential with this weekend and early next week's storms.
 
Gotta like the look of the 12z Euro today. Lets find out if the models keep trending towards a western Trough next weekend. Could be one of the last good chances of the season!
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Let's try to stay on topic, please.

Staff note
There have been a number of digressive tangents that have spurred off of this conversation lately. Please put discussion of individual past events in their appropriate EVENTS threads and send other unrelated discussion to their appropriate threads so this thread can remain on the topic of discussing future chaseable/severe weather events in 2018.
 
Guess I should be happy since between marriage and moving I had no time to chase anyways, but yeah this has not been a good season. Fortunately some of the better days have been close so Tescott and Cope were decent days. But anytime we get a string of 99-100 degree days in eastern Colorado in early June, usually not a good sign of things to come. May see some regional events coming up next week as pointed out, but CAPE looks limited. Hopefully the monsoon season will be a good one since that is where I am headed next...will have to seek photo inspiration from Warren's lighting collection... Hope the last couple years are not the start of a long term trend, cause 2018 did not have much to offer from a 'classic' Plains trough standpoint.
 
It's becoming fairly clear that the rest of May is a lost cause, at least for anything more than extreme fluke overperformers (think Campo or Jarrell) and marginal upslope opportunities. The only thing I'd caution against is declaring the entire season dead. I'm as disgusted with 2018 YTD as anyone, but long-term climo says June 1-20 is also part of the prime Plains chase season. And as dreadful as everything looks now, NWP is not skillful beyond D14, and most of June lies in that range. Years like 2005, 2009, and 2014 have shown that the pattern can turn around very late, even after a miserable May (sometimes extending into early June).

It's somewhat unlikely that we'll see any more high-end setups in the southern Plains this season (especially OK/TX), but if you're able to chase N of I-70, there's no particular reason as of today to think that June will be completely dead. Unfortunately, there are some haunting examples of terrible May patterns that simply persisted or got worse in June (1988, 2006, 2012), but there seem to be an equal or greater number of cases where things at least returned to climo for the final few weeks of the season.

I'm no optimist, and I think it's already safe to say 2018 will go down as a bad season, with the likelihood of "unspeakably bad/2006 bad" rising by the day. But if you totally take frustration and emotion out of the equation, it's still too early to close the coffin on the season just yet.
This didn't age well. The large scale pattern only got worse heading into June, and aside from a couple flukey mesoscale accidents and landspouts, so did the chase season.

Now that work commitments are at a minimum for me, I'm willing to head north for virtually any string of marginally interesting days -- but I'm just not seeing it on the guidance over the next 10 days. Thursday in ND is intriguing but flawed, and none of the days around it look remotely chase worthy, even by the lowest standards. Every time decent flow impinges into the Plains this month, it seems to be associated with an anafrontal regime where the surface front is collocated with the leading edge of >25 kt flow aloft. This is forecast to be true most days this week into this weekend, for example.

As the late June climatological falloff comes into focus in the medium-range guidance with no encouragement in sight, it's becoming quite likely that 2018 will find company with 2006 and 1987/1988 as one of the very worst Plains seasons on record. It's true that some stunning imagery and a few quality tornadoes came out of the season (primarily the "73/45 miracle at Laramie" and Tescott), but this is the climatological tornado hotspot for the planet, and even the worst season ever will have a few big storms. I'm convinced that underreporting, no smartphones, and a general lack of "never stop chasing" folks even 12-15 years ago makes it difficult to assume something truly flukey like the Laramie storm would even get noticed back then (at least, if it didn't happen to be near a large town). With that in mind, it certainly seems within the range of possibilities that 2018 has been even worse than 2006 and other bottom dwellers of the historical record.

For those of you heading to ND/MB/SK this week, you can either thank me now or after the fact for this anti-jinx!
 
Reoccurring themes from the past 5-7 weeks, some of which are evident over the next three days, in addition to the ever highlighted weak deep layer flow:
  • Inverted V profiles from hot surface temps, and/or poor boundary layer moisture
  • High LCLs
  • Weak low-level shear
  • Storms lining out/growing upscale quickly
Today features dew-points up near 60F as far west as the CO/KS border and mid to upper 60s in southwestern Kansas. Despite vertically veering winds with height and "good" moisture, 0-1km and 0-3km shear are both very weak and even with the moisture, surface temperatures in the 90s produce glaring inverted V profiles in most areas.

Tomorrow is another nuisanced day with a similar pattern, but you can't rule out a flukey tornado somewhere in the High Plains as shear improves to some degree.

I haven't gotten into a heavy analysis of Thursday yet and at quick glance, the combination of shear and quality moisture looks appealing, but one has to wonder how quickly storms may line out.

Even though there may be some western U.S. troughing next week, the Euro shows more weak upper level winds. The CFS, for a third day in a row, has a glaring signal for a very unfavorable pattern around June 17-21.
 
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