I am creating this thread as we usually have one every year in this sub-forum. It allows members to discuss approaching systems that are greater than 7 days out and therefore cannot be discussed in the Target Area until it reaches the 7 day threshhold. I am going to stick this thread so it is easy to find and use throughout the 2012 chase season.
2012 Long Range Model Discusssion (> 7 Days Out)
- Thread starter Mark Blue
- Start date
Brendon Lindsey
EF3
Well, Sunday is looking good, it is 6 days out, doesn't need its own thread yet. It looks like KS/OK/TX event. Actually a Dryline event in Oklahoma.
2000-2500 SB CAPE lined up I-35
DP upper 60s
Good upper level support
Huge Hodos
Cap is seeming to not be an issue.
Hope it verifies, another win if this does pan out on a Sunday I can already see the convergence.
2000-2500 SB CAPE lined up I-35
DP upper 60s
Good upper level support
Huge Hodos
Cap is seeming to not be an issue.
Hope it verifies, another win if this does pan out on a Sunday I can already see the convergence.
Jacob Ferden
EF4
Looking like Sunday may be the day for the plains as the GFS has sped up the ejection of the trough the last few runs. Will note that both the 12z and 18z runs are showing some capping issues ahead of the Oklahoma portion of the dryline, but this is all folly this far out, of course.
Also looking like Monday might well be a significant severe weather event for points east.
I fully expect it to look completely different by tomorrow, but it sure is nice to talk about, as I'm itching to get my 2012 going.
Also looking like Monday might well be a significant severe weather event for points east.
I fully expect it to look completely different by tomorrow, but it sure is nice to talk about, as I'm itching to get my 2012 going.
Bob Hartig
EF5
Sunday certainly looks like it could be one for the dryline. Nice wind crossovers juxtaposed with instability by I-35. If it holds together, it could be my first jaunt west this year. Monday on, looks like a cold core wants to set up--seems a bit deja vu. I'll cross my fingers for Sunday for now.
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Tim Supinie
EF2
I would not recommend getting too excited just yet. The ECMWF is handling that trough wildly differently, so it's anybody's guess as to what will actually happen. The ensemble members of the GEFS seem to agree on some sort of trough-ish thing on Sunday, but differ on the timing. The ECMWF, however ... I can't figure out what the heck it does with that trough, but it doesn't look nearly as pretty as the GFS.
I really should stay out of this thread. It's dangerous to my productivity ...
I really should stay out of this thread. It's dangerous to my productivity ...
ChristianTerry
Looking at the GFS shows a fairly potent system coming out of the rockies. Looks to be a good chance for severe weather along the dryline anywhere from the Texas Panhandle to West-central Kansas. CAPE at the low-levels looks to be anywhere from 1250 J/kg from North Kansas to around 2500 J/kg in Oklahoma. Personally, I like the looks along that Dryline in Southwest Kansas, but I'm skeptical about the amount of moisture. It also looks as if the dryline will be moving relatively quickly if the GFS plays out. Monday also looks interesting with the trough dipping down into the Texas panhandle. Looks like storms from the last day will become linear and move across North Texas. Correct me if I don't sound to good, Im still trying to get the hang of interpreting these.
Zack Cooper
EF2
The 12Z GFS destroyed the system it has been showing for the past 1-2 days... The trough is located way behind the sfc front. Yesterdays 18z and 00z runs looked quite good... but the EURO has never really showed anything significant.
Bob Hartig
EF5
Not to worry. Give it another run or two (or several) and it'll be Armageddon on the plains.
Andy Jackson
EF3
As of today 4/4 the 18z GFS has a very active period for the plains/midwest 192hrs and beyond. If even half of the days verifies things could get pretty interesting.
Derek Weston
EF5
May looking boring so far on GFS.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
Not sure what you are looking at the GFS, GFS ensembles and Euro all look horrible with a big eastern trough which keeps reloading. Really glad I already got some tornadoes in April and my actual chase vacation begins in June, I feel sorry for those folks locked into May
Adam Simone
EF1
You need to read again when he posted that. His post was a month ago.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
Ditto for ECMWF. By day 10, it has the main belt of h5 winds up in Canada - yikes! If this keeps up we'll have spectacular wx to view the annular eclipse in the TX panhandle on May 20
Warren Faidley
Supporter
If you are seeking a blockbuster April-like setup in the near future... it's likely not going to happen.
However, there is hope as the models are still arguing over the movement and position of a cold front and a closed low out west. Tuesday and beyond could offer chase days in SW and / or western TX and maybe into OK.
W.
However, there is hope as the models are still arguing over the movement and position of a cold front and a closed low out west. Tuesday and beyond could offer chase days in SW and / or western TX and maybe into OK.
W.
Dan Robinson
EF5
It does look pretty grim for a couple weeks. Looks like a moisture-scouring cold front blasts through early next week. With the upper pattern shown being so stagnant, recovery is going to be slow. As it's shown now, extreme south Texas might be the only place with deep moisture and midlevel flow >35 knots. For a long time it appears.
The models are known to do extreme flip-flopping this time of year, so never turn your back on May.
The models are known to do extreme flip-flopping this time of year, so never turn your back on May.
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