Dont forget though that we are probably talking mini supercells today... so very large hail is probably not going to happen but severe hail is definitely likely.
I dont think I could necessarily call the instability strong, but for mini supercells I suppose it is decent. This is definitely a situation where the normal severe weather / tornado rules dont apply.
Our cold-core low has since been reabsorbed into the flow according to the 500mb analysis on SPC mesoanalysis page, however the trough remains cold-core so it will be interesting to see if this follows the theory of Jon Davies.
I don't think I'd compare this to the type of environment that Davies talks about in terms of cold-core tornadoes. This activity will still be warm sector activity, more like a classic severe weather situation. The "cold core" setups that Davies has written of is more from cool-sector activity located under a cold-core upper-low, more like what we saw a few times this spring in Kansas and nearby areas.
As others have noted, low-level shear is strong, though not a whole lot of curvature in the hodograph owing to SSW surface flow across most the warm sector ahead of the dryline. Surface flow is a little more backed to the SE across nw IA and into southern MN, but the upper-level flow is more backed up there as well. The deep-layer shear vector is more parallel to the dryline than it is normal to it, with the relatively backed upper-level flow promoting downstream seeding, particularly where the upperlevel flow is SSW across the north end of the target area.
Since I'm in Norman, I'd head up to the northeastern OK / se KS area if I were chasing, where upperlevel flow is more westerly or southwesterly. In addition, decent insolation has been occurring there over the past several hours, allowing surface temperatures to rise and CAPE to increase. However, surface winds have veered to the SSW, which is lowering SRH in the area. Strong wind fields above the surface is still yielding 40-50kt deeplayer shear and moderate SRH, and the upper-level jet streak is located such that the ne OK and se KS area is located in the right-entrance region, yielding upper-level divergence, which, along with DPVA aloft and surface heating, is weakening the cap. Nice cu field extending from near Kansas City to Ponca City to Ardmore.
Storm motions should be pretty fast today owing to strong flow at all levels. Good luck to anyone out!
