Kevin Askew
EF2
MD for my area. I have to work but will be watching from there on any threats Red box will be issued shortly into SEMO area
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
11/27/05 NOW: Central/Eastern Plains
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
Karen Politte
EF5
Hear hear. Those storms in AR have displayed very impressive velocity and reflectivity signatures for the past couple of hours. It's just amazing. I've got more excited about this outbreak/severe weather day than I have about any of the previous ones - but perhaps that's just because I'm more involved with it seeing as I'm helping out Jason. I have had no further updates from him so far.
Montgomery Co. might be needing some damage surveyors in there within the next day or so - it will be interesting to see what kind of damage paths can be found if any surveys are carried out. Maybe Tim Marshall's workload is piling up even higher......LOL.
And yes, it WAS amazing to see what begun as a string-bean PoS line of barely-severe storms develop and break up into several kicka$$ tornadic supercells. Sort of reminiscnet of June 12th Girard TX, when a cluster of so-so storms were suddenly overtaken by dynamics and formed those tornado-producing supercells. It amazes me to see that this sort of thing can occur even after an unfavourable convective mode seems to have been established. Other times, of course, bad convective mode is established and there seems no going back. I wonder what the differences are........they are likely many-fold.
I may go and call Jason now......I hope he has seen something interesting for his trouble and dedication.
Sorry to deviate,
KR
SPC just posted MD for possibility of strong long track tornadoes for Central and West Central Arkansas. Be on the Lookout. That area is really bad terrain w/ hills and such
Gabe Garfield
EF5
As the SPC has already noted, the potential for long-track strong to violent tornadoes appears to be increasing. With storm mode remaining discrete supercells, the potential for major-league tornadoes will continue to increase as the nocturnal LLJ sets up. It is becoming increasingly evident that a major tornado outbreak is unfolding.
I'm particularly concerned with the potential for significant tornadoes in the vicinity of Little Rock. With nightfall approaching, the potential for injury and death is rising with any tornado that forms. Hopefully, all lives will be spared tonight.
Isn't that strange? It seems like many days are hosed as soon as a squall line develops, and on other days, the storms become more discrete with time! I suspect it has something to do with the strong low-level shear and some combination of as-of-yet unknown parameters.
Gabe
Bill Hark
EF5
Interesting observation: As with the previous November outbreak, the significant tornado index on the SPC mesoscale analysis has been very low or nonexistant across areas with reported tornadoes. I suspect that in high shear, low CAPE environments, this index is less useful.
The components are: 0-6km Shear, 0-1km Helicity, MLCAPE, LCL Hgt and the MLCAPE has been very low. I've enjoyed the analysis of this event. Good luck to those chasing.
Bill Hark
Dick McGowan
EF5
IN SANE-------
3-4 tornadoes. One multivortex crossing the road in front of us less than a half a mile. Gonna have to check the maps on this thing. Sitting in Topeka right now, WIBW will be showing our video as we speak. We were in between two cells that had one tornado to the north and one big trunkated cone almost barrel to our SE. Amazing. Will post pics and video clips. Special thanks to Eric B Hymer and Stewart Manning for nowcasting. What a day.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
As previous studies and experience has shown, I think we can chalk it up, mostly, to the orientation of the deeplayer shear vector to the initiating surface boundary. The 0-6km shear vector is largely SW, with a sfc boundary oriented N-S (near the OK/AR border per wind analysis), and another one oriented NW-SE through Little Rock. This puts the shear vector at a 45 to ~80 degree orientation relative to the boundary / boundaries. The intense low-level shear (>600 m2/s2 0-1km SRH near Little Rock per SPC mesoanalysis now) is likely enhancing updrafts markedly, which is also helping keep storms relatively discrete. A "string of pearls" type of supercell event ongoing, with very nice convergent cyclonic signatures with numerous storms in western AR.
anyone know of live streaming coverage/footage from Little Rock?
Little Rock is definately in danger
Im curious how similar or different this event is to last years scenario a day or two before thanksgiving.
Kevin Askew
EF2
Perryville AR. Should be underground.... This beast could be F-5. Ref. Off scale.
Extremely tight kidney bean in Cass Co./Bowie Co. in NE Tx, Tornado warning has been issued.
Cell racing NE at 50mph according to warning text.beaudodson
EF5
David Draun
EF5
That storm heading towards the north side Little Rock has an intensity of 70+ on the doppler! :shock: This is not good: A possibly very strong tornado racing into a highly populated area, and to make matters worse, it is now after dark. My prayers no one is seriously hurt or killed tonight.
Yes, I am watching in awe at this situation from Baghdad.
EDIT: Two extremely nasty shear couplets west of that area
Karen Politte
EF5
Morrilton AR is in serious trouble NOW. I bet it's mayhem there.
Jason was somewhere between Blackwell and Morrilton about half an hour ago.......I am hoping he is now well east of there. :?
KR
Kevin Askew
EF2
Yep David the wind velocities are incredible. Gate to gate are maxed on the one that went through perryville AR. Listening to Beau's feed from Hot Springs, very devistating tornado sounds like.Similar threads
