11/27/05 NOW: Central/Eastern Plains

Strong supercells should increase during the next couple of hours near the warm front / dryline intersection bisecting southeast KS/northeast OK area. Continued steepening mid-level lapse rates / diurnal mixing will continue to let boundary layer deepen / destabilize through the early afternoon, ahead of the surface low, now 986mb and pushing into east/central KS. While the atmosphere is marginally to moderately unstable, with sbCAPE now increased to 1000j/kg in southcentral KS, expect 40-70kt deep-layer vertical shear to support long-lived supercells... Strong low-level shear with 200-350m2/s2 0-1km SRH across warm sector will support tornadoes with any organized structures, and the possibility for a few isolated strong tornadoes across western / central MO later this afternoon. Slow weakening of CINH has been taking place for the last hour or so... I would expect initiation to occur just ahead of the dryline / warm front intersection in southeast KS during the next hour or so. It will likely be another banner day...
Sorry if this is in the wrong place, but I am in a hurry. If anyone can do any nowcasting for me it would be greatly appreciated. I have turned my XM off for the season and I don't have any other data options(including my weather radio because I lost my external antennas in Rita). I am leaving Wichita right now heading East to find a wifi spot. If anyone would be able to relay relevant warning and storm motion/location info. to me please email me or send me a PM. Thanks
Some nice cells blowing up in northern Oklahoma. I'm still going to just chill here in Pittsburg, KS and watch whatever comes at me.
Right now in my area (Searcy, AR), there are some strato-cu aligned as bands racing N around 40 mph. Surface winds are out of the SE or SSE around 10 mph, w/ gusts to 20. Vis satellite shows banded cloud cover over much of AR. One may say transverse rolls but these look a bit different. Still, there is directional shear taking place and temps are coming up. Temp is now 65 with a 59 dewpoint and its mostly cloudy to overcast outside.
I'm thinking if the clouds hold tough and limits diurnal heating, the tornado threat will be mitigated a bit. The LR NWS has kept their radar on VCP12 mode even though there is nothing going on in the state right now. VWP from the LZK radar site is showing some directional shear taking place: 15~20 kt winds from the SE and 40-50 kt winds @ the 4,000 ft. level out of the SW.
Dryline has pushed into eastern OK: Western Osage county to Ponca City, OK to Stillwater to western creek county and down to Bryan county, OK. Dews are falling rapidly west of that line.
Just got off the phone with Dick Mcgowan and Darin Brunin, they report a wall cloud sw of marion on the marion county ks storm .

Now reporting funnel cloud on the same storm.

now reporting tornado just north of marion kansas.
Still more interested in the southern play. Cells have developed in extreme NE TX to extreme se OK - areas northeast from DeQueen in the short term to Hot Springs, AR look favorable. Horrible chase country - solid forrest around there. Should see a watch soon.
There was a meso briefly indicated by radar in Marion county. Base at 4000 ft, top 6400. It's not there anymore though.

Edit: It's back!

Darin and Dick's storm is showing a fabulous low-level couplet, just southwest of Lost Springs. This storm has been sustained for quite some time, and has shown pretty decent low-level rotation for the past hour.

Very nice hook and convergent, cyclonic low-level couplet very near Bartlesville, OK attm. The storm looks to be heading right towards Coffeyville. I have GRLevel3 set to upload images automatically every 4-5 minutes at http://www.tornadocentral.com/radar/ ... I'll try to keep it focused on the best looking storms...
Just got out of the shower and noted a lack of warnings on my GRLevel3 program out there for those small supercells trucking north in KS. It appears that there has been a general short-circuit in many website's relaying of warning details and data feeds - including the major COD site and GRLevel3. I don't know why this is happening, but...Gene says the IWIN site DOES have warning details on it.

Just wanted to make sure the forum was kept abreast of not only the reports that are now flooding in, but also the problems with getting warnings. Don't rely on some of the usual venues for getting your warnings!

The storm continues to show a very nice low-level mesocyclone, with strong rotation just northwest of Woodbine. So far, there has been 4 reports of tornadoes with this storm... Low-level shear is absolutely fantastic invof these storms, with near easterly surface flow beneath southerly 850mb flow yielding 0-1km SRH in excess of >300m2/s2.
Dick is reporting a total of 4 torndoes sighted so far from the marion cty storm.
Supercell thunderstorm north of Coffeyville continues to rotate strongly per the latest volume scans of the Tulsa 88D. A tornado has been reported with this storm, and given the production of the storm near Manhattan, will likely continue to produce tornadoes.

Another supercell has rapidly developed to the south of Bartlesville, Oklahoma. Rotation is becoming increasingly evident in the velocity images from KINX. I would expect this storm to become tornadic within the next 30 minutes, given the history associated with the storm to its north.


Man!! That cell is really trucking!
Now: 2113Z Canadian Co. OKla

What a fascinating system!! I saw what looked liked a low topped mini SUP about 40mi. north of the farm...probably between Hennessey and Enid around 1830Z ..had nice midlevel inflow bands with corkscrewed tower. Lost visual of that after a half hour. Meanwhile, lots of dust that was more mid level..now reaching the surface at the farm (5mi. NW of Piedmont) Vis. aprox. 3mi. Winds sustained 35-40 gusting to 52. Peak gust was back at 1341Z, 63mph. Pressure was 29.35 and still falling.
As a reminder to those watching the storm in Neosho county... Despite what radar reflectivity is indicating, I don't think that storm is weakening. All the storms out there are relatively low-topped, so, as the storm moves away from the radar, the radar beam intersects that storm at an increasingly higher elevation. So, just something to keep in mind.

SPC Mesoanalysis (and common sense) indicating intense upper-level divergence associated with the left-exit region of the 130kts 250-mb jet streak, with 80-100+kt 0-6km shear from southcentral OK into northwestern AR and southern MO. CAPE is still relatively low, but strong dynamic forcing and intense low-level shear is likely strongly aiding updraft velocities beyond what buoyancy could be expected to do.

Warnings finally back on GR3! Good dust with an orangish/brownish sky in OUN now.
The Geary County storm has a pronounced low-level velocity couplet that has developed in the last 15-20 min. Unfortunately it appears as though the main area of rotation is embedded in precipitation, which should make things a little "hairy" (to say the least) as it approaches the western portions of Manhattan in the next 10-20 min.
The supercell that initiated to the south of Bartlesville has intensified rapidly and has a classic appearance (complete with appendage) on radar. In addition, a strong rotational couplet has developed within the last few volume scans. The center of circulation appears to be just over or to the northeast of Coffeyville, KS. I would expect this storm to be tornado-warned shortly.

I am a bit concerned about the lack of instability further east, as low-level stratus did not clear out in time for maximum destabilization to occur. However, for the near term, I see no reason why the Coffeyville storm should not be able to prodcue a tornado or two.

Agree with Gabe's thoughts... Here's a good grab of the Labette County supercell, with nice rotational couplet:


On a different note, smoke from a few fires south and southwest of OUN is showing up nicely on KTLX. Tds in <10 with winds gusting >50mph making for a bad fire situation... But, back to the imminent, severe weather...
Tornado warning just to my east in Neosho and Labette counties now.......