07L: Hurricane Gustav

[jladue]

convective burst commencing?

It seems that just as NHC posted their 11pm discussion mentioning that Gustav has moved away from its convection, a new burst appears to be developing over the center. There's much better banding wrapping around the south side of the center visible from Gran Piedro radar. The storm has shifted south of west and now it looks to me that Jamaica may now present a more serious obstacle for regeneration. If the storm passes to the north, the bands may suffer downslope flow to the south and the residual dry air intrusion from the north. If the storm passes over the island then the inner core may be disrupted for obvious reasons. Maybe Gustav would have the best chance of surviving Jamaica by passing to its south.

 

[Greg Campbell]

Gustav is not dead, he's "just sleeping." The ocean surrounding W. Haiti must be pretty well depleted; he's just conserving his energy.

Gutsav's still got plenty of mojo in the form of rotational inertia. I have to think the storm will reorganize as it moves into fresh seas. We're already seeing some healthy flare ups along the leading western edge.

 

[Marc Austin]

Gustav has already killed 23 people. If it does intensify and make landfall somewhere in the US that deathtoll will rise. Nothing we can do about that but sad to see it happen.

TWC expects the weakening trend of Gustav to stop soon so mabey it will survive and stengthen into a Hurricane after all.

Yes, and we ALL know The Weather Channel is "The Hurricane Authority"!

No seriously, even a weak hurricane hitting areas devastated by Katrina would be bad. Fay, when it was a tropical storm, caused some of the worst flooding here in Tallahassee, FL in 10 years. It doesn't even take a powerful hurricane, or even a hurricane for that matter, to kill many people.

I don't think Gustav is done yet. Once it moves out over the SW Gulf, in spite of some wind shear, it shouldn't have much of a problem intensifying. And Jeff has a good point, the oceanic heat content is fairly high across the SW GoM at present.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Survival of the fittest!

Interesting IR loop..... the blob of thunderstorms to the southwest of Gustav, was pulled back to the east/ne and ingested back into the circulation!

Warren

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Yes, and we ALL know The Weather Channel is "The Hurricane Authority"!

I dunno, I suspect TWC has a higher hurricane forecast verification than the Stormtrack Forum... if they didn't, I would think they were seriously overpaying their veteran meteorology staff.

The thing that's interesting is how quickly the storm has pulsed tonight and how much further south/west the convection looks on Sat presentation than it's supposed to be. I can't make out a center of circulation, but the convection is making me wonder if it's far enough west to interact with Jamaica.

 

[Jason Harris]

I heard and watched Fay seething with tears of impotent rage when she rained out her frustration over Melbourne; she called to her brother Gustav, and she will call to other family members to restore her honor. Can you imagine how angry she was never to become a hurricane? Notice how Gustav keeps a flea's breadth still below 1000 mb (999.2) of pressure even when encountering all that chunky Cuban landscape? He aint got no quit in him, you'll see. (Thought I may as well add a dubious prognostication, but really, see:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/GUSTAV.d1-merge.windzoom.html

 

[Stuart Robinson]

My Latest thoughts is now for the centre to move and spend a long over Jamaca - again reducing the power of this storm (this will not be good news for Jamaca however) Next I am really worried about Mexico (Cancun / Cozumel) as the storm should intensifiy before then. Finally USA landall South of Houston. I just am not buying the New Orleans CAT4 hit anymore ! time will tell if I am right on this one - the good news is that the time spent over land will prevent this storm from becoming a monster - but I would not rule out CAT3 into Mexico.

Edit - I am now thinking that Gustav may go SOUTH of Jamaca now. I am also expecting a change of track from the NHC in the next advisory...

 

[Jason Harris]

Winds back up to 50 and pressure down to 988 and staying south of Jamaica to get some juice back. Bet it's back to a hurricane by mid afternoon.

 

[Chris Hayes]

When I looked at the infrared a little while ago, I thought the winds had to be greater than 50mph. 730 update has the winds now up to 70mph. Now if it can just get away from Jamaica in a quick manner.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Just below hurricane CAT1 strenth again....

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.

edit - Wow what a bomb! Recon just found 983 millibars ....

 

[Chris Hayes]

Eye is now starting to form within Gustav.

 

[Jason Foster]

Slow to form is good

I am hoping that Gustav doesn't explode too fast, saving all it's energy for when it makes landfall. Of course that's coming from the chaser perspective. Intercept in SW LA maybe a little difficult do to the geography. If the track is somewhat right. My first target (way early to say for sure), is Lafeyette, LA. After assessing the terrain in person, may venture closer to the Gulf down US 90, but with the swamp conditions and surge risk, it may not be the best option. That said, I still feel there is a good chance Gustav will trend west of it's current NHC forecast track.

For the time being, at least it looks like intercept of this system and then turn around and head for Hanna is a good bet.

And yet another system coming of of Africa.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If I remember right, there was a cooler pool of water off the LA coast which rapidly reduced Katrina's strength, but the storm surge still maintained it's Cat 5 status. It looks like the waters are much warmer off the LA coast than when Katrina struck. (Someone correct me if this is not accurate).

So, given the forward speed and warmer waters, I am surmising the deciding factor will be shear.

As far as the potential landfall strike zones goes, I surveyed the area several years ago and unless there has been a serious infrastructure advancement, the areas along the LA coast are very difficult to intercept from if you are seeking coastal action. Same can be said for the areas from Port Author south to Galveston, then west to Port Lavaca and then west/sw to Corpus.

Warren

 

[Angie Norris]

I think one component of Katrina's weakening just prior to landfall was the occurrance of an eyewall replacement cycle which would account for the decrease in wind speed and the rise in barometric pressure. I really don't remember about the SSTs (and I can't find my notes from class right now).
I've not had much time to play with a forecast this week, but my gut feeling is the Lake Charles/New Orleans area. Another major storm is the last thing the Gulf Coast needs right now. It's going to be interesting to see if there is any interaction/effect from Hanna.

 

[Danny Neal]

To many people are so quick to overkill these storms and make them sound like so much more than what they realy are and make a thread last over 3 pages even for a tropical storm that does not deserve that much discusion.

Plain and simple: A new model comes out; people discuss it. Everyone has their own opinion and interpretations of data. From birth to death it's going to get covered (at least I hope so) It is what forecasters do. When there is the potential for another potentially catastrophic hurricane hitting anyone in the USA its not a waste of time and SHOULD be covered. Thus the point of this whole forum

On topic now: It is probably a safe bet that if/when these two systems (Gustav and Hanna) hit the U.S. there will be more record flooding along the east coast. With Gustav's remnants perhaps interacting with Hanna's remnants. I was going to send a post last night saying it looks like the circulation center drifted south, but apparently I went to bed and without clicking send. Seeing the effects of the landfall in Haiti and then seeing the path over Jamaica makes me highly skeptical. Regardless of what happens over Jamaica I think it's safe to say that even the tiniest of closed circulation interacting with that loop current between Cuba and Mexico could spell problems for the Gulf Coast.

Five areas of interest (including Hanna and Gustav) in the Atlantic right now with peak season still a little under 2 weeks away! Let the good times roll.