07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Bob Schafer]

Some of you will recall that I spent some time in LA in Sept '05 doing damage assessment for the Red Cross. Now, I doubt if these pictures will help anyone plan for a chase there, but maybe being able to view these will in fact help you in some obtuse manner to at least get a "flavor" for the area. These were all taken post-Rita.

The first two are from Lake Charles on September 27, 2005:

The rest are from, I THINK, in/around Cypremort, SE of Lafayette and very near the GoM. They were shot September 29 and 30, 2005. It's pretty bad I'm not sure where they were taken, I know, but I think that's right. Anyway, IIRC, the SS was over 20 feet there from Rita. FWIW, I don't believe any SS reached Houma, where we had made a "pit stop". There are plenty of trees, and it's pretty darn flat everywhere around there, of course. The whole area is pretty poor, and finding a suitable parking garage may be impossible, though I can't swear to it. Lafayette seemed like a fairly thriving town, and I think MAY provide a good spot to camp out for a 'cane.

 

[Shane Adams]

So if NO gets wiped out again, a few questions...

(1) Do we have to pay for them to get rebuilt again even though it's ridiculous they're below sea-level next to the ocean?

(2) Will OKC have two NBA teams in 2009?

 

[HAltschule]

Smoking Something Funky?

My guess is that no one is around the ASOS machine to augment the erroneous 446 MPH (388 KT) gust that was recorded at 4pm EDT today. (unless it was an augmented typo )

MKJP 282000Z 290388KT 4000 -SHRA VCSH BKN014 FEW018CB BKN030 OVC100 27/22 Q0990

 

[Jason Bolt]

Might not be the best place to ask, but in thinking about a SW LA landfall does anyone have a link to the before/after pics of the LA coastline from Katrina? As I recall, there was a very large loss in landmass.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Jason, I was wondering that today as to how much/if any landmass was lost because of Katrina.

 

[MatthewCarman]

NHC has two areas of medium potential behind Gustav and Hannah and another area of low potential off the coast of I think it was Mexico or the Yucatan. What are the chances of five tropical storms ongoing at the same time? That would be crazy to see happen.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Might not be the best place to ask, but in thinking about a SW LA landfall does anyone have a link to the before/after pics of the LA coastline from Katrina? As I recall, there was a very large loss in landmass.

I remember reading somewhere that a conservative estimate would be around half of the barrier islands' above-sea area was lost. I'm not looking forward to seeing how the lack of these buffers will affect Gustav's storm surge. To give you an idea of what that looks like:

 

[Jason Young]

A word of warning for anyone thinking of going to the SW La. I was in Cameron La. before Rita . It was very hard getting down to the area and there was a Ferry you have to take from Cameron to Holly Beach . NHC is now saying Cat . 4 or 5 probable.

 

[Shane Adams]

NHC is now saying Cat . 4 or 5 probable.

Link to this?

I just checked the latest discussion and all I got was "Intensity forecast is problematic"...and no mention of any probable SS rating.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Link to this?

I just checked the latest discussion and all I got was "Intensity forecast is problematic"...and no mention of any probable SS rating.

At the end of that paragraph
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/290301.shtml

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
RETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON
HOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

 

[MClarkson]

Ugg, what terrible timing! At about the same time this storm will be landfalling, i'll be waking up in a tent in the middle of the night to go climb a mountain. I'm going to miss the entire show. For those of you who are chasing, have fun. Major hurricanes are what we live for. I'll keep my fingers crossed for a daylight landfall for you guys.

Id be a bit surprised if this *doesnt* reach cat 4 status at some point in the next few days. Low shear, very warm water. There is not much to stop this storm from intensifying.

 

[Jason Foster]

A tricky one at best

.....NHC is now saying Cat . 4 or 5 probable.

(shortened for Length)
..THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE .....THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99 KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT. THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

I don't think NHC said it's "probable". Perhaps "possible" the way I read it. It certainly isn't reflected in the intensity numbers at the bottom of the discussion. But since some of the models to talk about higher winds (see HWRF), then perhaps it's possible. I don't remember which models are more reliable with the intensity, doesn't really matter once I decide to chase....at that point it's the actual reports that matter.

At this point I'm looking at Google Earth (and maps) as much as the models, to get a better feel for the region. But I wonder if those are pre-2005 season aerial pictures or not.

 

[Tim Marshall]

I took Monday and Tuesday off work and will chase "Hurricane" Gustav if it makes CAT 3. Right now I have motel reservations in Jennings, LA and Biloxi, MS. If landfall is southern Louisiana, BEWARE there are lots of swampy lowlands that will flood and can trap you for days. I would not advise going southeast of New Iberia to Morgan City, LA or anywhere south of New Orleans. TM

 

[Matt Sellers]

Quoting Jason Foster:

At this point I'm looking at Google Earth (and maps) as much as the models, to get a better feel for the region. But I wonder if those are pre-2005 season aerial pictures or not.

Recent versions of Google Earth show the date when an image was taken, if you zoom in close enough on that particular area (I currently run 4.3.7284.3916.) Images of the New Orleans metro were taken in March 2006. In other areas along the LA coast, the image date varies and straddles the summer of 2005; some pics were taken in 2004, others in the fall of 2005 or later. The greenish images from the along the central LA coast and westward were taken in 2004; the area invof Cameron, LA was photographed post-Rita, in 2006.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Not too much on hurricane forecasting here, so take this with a grain of salt. I think with the H pressure setting up in the southern states, the eye may deviate to the west just a tad bit right before it makes landfall. I'm thinking the Sabine Pass area or just east of there looks like it may take the brunt of the cane. Not sure, but again, no hurricane forecaster here. Just my "pulled out of a hat" analysis.