07L: Hurricane Gustav

[rdale]

What kind of surge did Rita bring New Orleans? Yes, Rita not Katrina

5-7ft.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/html/psh_rita.htm

 

[Warren Faidley]

Just a minor, but interesting note that some of the models from the 18 UTC run have backed off a Texas landfall and are moving slightly to the east, while two models (and a military model someone sent me) are turning much more to the right. NO, and the MS, FL areas could still be in trouble if this trend continues or if Gustav expands.

W.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

I have very little experience forecasting hurricanes, can someone on here send me some good links to models for hurricane landfall and the like? thanks in advance!

 

[Chad Cowan]

Live New Orleans news conference:
http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=213863&live=yes

"We think we can get all our citizens out within 24 hours." (of starting evac) .... um

 

[Chris Hayes]

Live New Orleans news conference:
http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=213863&live=yes

"We think we can get all our citizens out within 24 hours." (of starting evac) .... um

Evacuations should start 72 hours before. Not 24! Here we go with this same stuff as we saw before Katrina.

 

[Chad Cowan]

Evacuations should start 72 hours before. Not 24! Here we go with this same stuff as we saw before Katrina.

Let me clarify- they are starting evac at 8am tomorrow

 

[Chris Hayes]

Okay, Chad, thank you for clarifying that I guess they did learn something

 

[Danny Neal]

Let me clarify- they are starting evac at 8am tomorrow

They moved the LSU - Appalachian State game up to 10 AM from 4 PM. I didn't quite catch the whole interview but I heard all traffic will be directed West on I 10 toward Houston. Again didn't hear the whole interview just bits and pieces, but if they are evacuating west toward Houston.....isn't that where the hurricane is "supposed" to make landfall? If anyone knows more about this evac route please correct me but that is what I gathered.

 

[rdale]

There is NO clue where landfall is going to be right now. Houston or New Orleans have about the same shot, but if you know anything about geography you'll know why Houston is better able to survive it than NO...

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Just heard on the radio from someone who lives in NO and has no car to drive, that he'll be evacuated Sat. about 8:00 AM. to either Shreveport or somewhere in TN. Apparently the city officials are emphasizing the point that anyone who stays behind, especially in areas hard hit by Katrina, are not to expect any help, during or after the landfall, even if they call 911.

 

[Danny Neal]

There is NO clue where landfall is going to be right now. Houston or New Orleans have about the same shot, but if you know anything about geography you'll know why Houston is better able to survive it than NO...

Well yeah I figured that much. I would think they would send the influx of evacuees north away from the Gulf instead of west, but then again, other than Houston, what other convenient area in that region can support hundreds of thousands of people.

 

[r.frazier]

Warren:

Would you mind very much sharing links to those models?

Thanks...

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

There is NO clue where landfall is going to be right now. Houston or New Orleans have about the same shot, but if you know anything about geography you'll know why Houston is better able to survive it than NO...

Well, Huston and NOLA don't have the same shot, but it's definately true that there is massive uncertainty:

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT


HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 17(56) 3(59)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 2(28)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)

 

[rdale]

Well, Huston and NOLA don't have the same shot

I think they do... Most forecasters do too... I wouldn't give a vote towards one vs the other right now.

 

[Warren Faidley]

RE: Models....Weather models are everywhere, just need to search:

Here is one site:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

On another lighter note, did anyone else catch that IR frame of Gustav with the University Of Michigan logo near the center? The actual image is much clearer.