07L: Hurricane Gustav

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jim Leonard
  • Start date Start date
Jason Boggs said:
Not too much on hurricane forecasting here, so take this with a grain of salt. I think with the H pressure setting up in the southern states, the eye may deviate to the west just a tad bit right before it makes landfall. I'm thinking the Sabine Pass area or just east of there looks like it may take the brunt of the cane. Not sure, but again, no hurricane forecaster here. Just my "pulled out of a hat" analysis.
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If I were to make a bet on landfall this far in advance I would say far western La. or east Texas as there should be some ridging to the north of Gustav when it arrives in the northern Gulf. I believe there will be more west of NW track before it makes landfall. Next week could be quite a week for hurricane chasing as some models have "Hanna" as a major hurricane coming up acoss extreme south Florida then into the east GOM next weekend.
 
Current plan is to put everything on hold, until the last possible moment. The two big problems right now are the likely strike region(s) and time of expected landfall. Although I seriously doubt the forecasted time of landfall will hold. The areas between Pass Christian and Galveston are always problematic. The roads near the coastal towns and marshes are quite hazardous, and often flood in different areas, so it is easy to be trapped between locations, way in advance of the actual landfall, even though everything looks good where you are. I should also note that many of the gas stations in the outer regions run out of fuel quite quickly and are not re-stocked right away because no trucks will go out there, so beware. Also, looking at the SST's (http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/08aug/gm_08aug29_0127_multi.png)
it looks like Gustav will have no problem with lower SST's throughout the entire period, so I'm guessing Gustav will remain quite strong.

W.
 
The forecast discussions regarding Gustav are very informative, particularly about the various factors that are "steering" this storm. The main two seem to be the Bermuda High and the "eastward moving High over the Great Lakes region". They say that Gustav is in the process of a temporary right turn towards a weakness (that models forecast to form) in the ridge over the eastern gulf.

It is just a crapshoot to even guess at where U.S. landfall would be this far out, and the models vary greatly. It also appears (from what I'm reading/learning) that you can't really separate the effect of the steering winds from the intensity of the storm. So the variables seem to be extremely complex.

It appears to be a near-certainty that Gustav will hit western Cuba and that it will be a substantial hurricane by the time it does. The wording of the discussion sounds as if no one will be surprised by rapid intensification between now and when it hits western Cuba. Interaction with the land mass may again prove somewhat disruptive, but it appears that Gustav will have plenty of time and warm water with which to regroup once it is northwest of Cuba.

If I can ask a question here... at what millibar level is the "Bermuda High" to be found? Do you have a favorite site that shows it well on maps (model or current conditions)?
 
Guess it's time to activate the "rumor" hotline along the Gulf Coast. Fox news just reported FEMA says "Gustav will be a Category 3 with 15 to 30 foot storm surge." Glad FEMA has the best working models!

W.
 
A hurricane chase is a real challange on any coastline but you bring a major hurricane to the Lousiana coastline the risks go up ten fold. There is no real coastline like other states, it is a swamp so you have to be well inland when your chasing Lousiana so you don't get the strongest winds the storm has to offer unless you are suicidal and go to the Gulf coastal swamp.
 
From Reckon - But Flight level winds at the time did not suggest this ??


Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 78KT (89.7MPH 144.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 21nm (24.15miles) From Center At Bearing 82°
 
Well Folks,
My honeymoon cruise leaves Galveston, Texas this Sunday at 4pm CST. Our itinerary consists of heading down to Jamaica then to the Cayman Islands before the typical Cozumel stop. I am not sure what the biggest insult is going to be yet… Either the fact that Gustav will be making me seasick or that I will be missing out on a major hurricane landfall close enough to home to be there. If the cruise line cancels our trip I WILL be there for the landfall! If not I will be rolling around in my cabin!

Randy
 
Nathan Truninger said:
It's probably their HAZUS software. We use it in class and its definitely good software.
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HAZUS doesn't predict hurricane strengths... It was a mis-statement by the news or FEMA person.

Randy Denzer said:
My honeymoon cruise leaves Galveston, Texas this Sunday at 4pm CST.
Click to expand...

Check your time again - Texas is on Daylight Saving Time so you'll miss your boat if you show up then ;)
 
What kind of surge did Rita bring New Orleans? Yes, Rita not Katrina. I seem to remember a substantial portion of the city re-flooding as the temporary levee fixes were breached again. It was only minor news since all the damage had already been done.

I am just curious because there are many scenarios that would drive a surge into Lake Pontchartrain again.
 
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