07L: Hurricane Gustav

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jim Leonard
  • Start date Start date
warren,

you were right, in addition to a replacement cycle, there was a cooler pool of SST's in place..that was the remaining upwelled water from hurricanes dennis and cindy, which passed through in the month prior.

while winds and pressures could go down in the hours preceding landfall...the surge will take longer to weaken, since the mass of all that water is heavier and slower to respond.

if this storm goes into SW LA..warren is right again...this is crappy chase area.



Warren Faidley said:
If I remember right, there was a cooler pool of water off the LA coast which rapidly reduced Katrina's strength, but the storm surge still maintained it's Cat 5 status. It looks like the waters are much warmer off the LA coast than when Katrina struck. (Someone correct me if this is not accurate).

So, given the forward speed and warmer waters, I am surmising the deciding factor will be shear.

As far as the potential landfall strike zones goes, I surveyed the area several years ago and unless there has been a serious infrastructure advancement, the areas along the LA coast are very difficult to intercept from if you are seeking coastal action. Same can be said for the areas from Port Author south to Galveston, then west to Port Lavaca and then west/sw to Corpus.

Warren
Click to expand...
 
Mods I am Not sure where to post this?

Do we need a seperate "chat" type thread for Hurricane chasers to discuss there plans? My prefrence would be to keep it all in one thread !

Anyway, right now I have pressed the GO button and will arrive in Houston from the UK on Saturday. I expect to move East and have already have a room in Houma (ether way I expect the track to change, as well as my target)
 
Wow! Triple Threat!

NHC just noted (orange alert) a disturbance associated with a t-wave in the southern Bay of Compeche.

This is getting more fascinating by the hour.

Warren
 
This is going to be a terribly exciting next 10 days. The 12z Euro takes Gustav into Louisiana early Tuesday and takes Hanna through the Keys and makes landfall in the same spot as Gustav.
 
Warren Faidley said:
As far as the potential landfall strike zones goes, I surveyed the area several years ago and unless there has been a serious infrastructure advancement, the areas along the LA coast are very difficult to intercept from if you are seeking coastal action. Same can be said for the areas from Port Author south to Galveston, then west to Port Lavaca and then west/sw to Corpus.

Warren
Click to expand...

I've moderately toyed with the idea of chasing this. I then looked around southern LA via google Earth, which has an elevation indicator with it. I don't see much in all of southern LA that I think I'd be able to convince myself to chase it from. Those that have never been there and planning to do it, might want to check it out on google Earth at least. Even those cities or towns sw of N.O. look at/below sea level on there. The area east of N.O. a ways close to where it hit last year looks a lot better elevation wise on it. Something about chasing a big cane in marshlands doesn't sound thrilling. Maybe it's not as bad as it appears on there, maybe it's worse, lol.
 
I am sad to report that the death toll in Hati is 55 already
sad.gif


http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iTupv76B68f8tC2Y3vOgZrHiH5WQ
 
I hope Gustav will pick up some speed soon! I plan to intercept this storm, but if a landfall occurs later than Tuesday AM, I may be SOL due to work obligations.

I agree a landfall from SE TX to SC LA would be a bad area to try and document any type of storm surge from, but keeping it out of a heavliy populated city would also be good for the people who live there.(i.e. Houston, New Orleans). Documenting the intense winds and damage, I would think could still be done easily even from I-10.

What do I know though, I only have one hurricane under my belt.

Are we all ready to see gas prices over $4.00/gallon? Gas jumped from $3.47 to $3.59 here in Wichita, KS overnight.
 
RE: Location: I don't recall any substantial (chase) bunkers, like concrete parking garages, etc., in those low lying areas. In fact, when I conducted my survey, much of the coast was marshes, swaps and sandbars with homes on stilts. If you go too far inland, to me, things are not all that exciting and it becomes a svr. storm, wind event with a lot of dangerous falling trees, etc. Just my style of chasing, so some might still find it worthy, and there are a handful of coastal cities with some protection. Regardless, depending on the size of Gustav, the speed and related surge, even if it strikes within a reasonable SW distance of NO, there is still going to be trouble with flooding.

Does anyone have a link for a live TV Internet feed for NO?

Thanks:

W.
 
If you are brave enough to chase in Grand Isle, there is a good strong building. The town hall is a concrete building up on concrete piers. The problem is, there will be no safe place to park your car in the area. Also, it is likely you could be stranded for a while as there is only one bridge going to the island.
 
Warren Faidley said:
RE: Location: I don't recall any substantial (chase) bunkers, like concrete parking garages, etc., in those low lying areas. In fact, when I conducted my survey, much of the coast was marshes, swaps and sandbars with homes on stilts. If you go too far inland, to me, things are not all that exciting and it becomes a svr. storm, wind event with a lot of dangerous falling trees, etc. Just my style of chasing, so some might still find it worthy, and there are a handful of coastal cities with some protection. Regardless, depending on the size of Gustav, the speed and related surge, even if it strikes within a reasonable SW distance of NO, there is still going to be trouble with flooding.

Does anyone have a link for a live TV Internet feed for NO?

Thanks:

W.
Click to expand...


http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=57429&live=yes
 
GFDL is the most scary looking of the tracks that Gustav could take in relation to New Orleans. Takes it into the state to the SE of N.O. and goes right over the city itself. Anyone have any idea as to how much of the marsh lands, etc have been replenished since Katrina. I know the marsh lands out there actually helped the city a lot and were highly damaged by Katrina's storm surge and flooding. I just wonder how a lot of them being gone would affect a storm surge from a major hurricane before the SS reaches the New Orleans area.
 
Correct me if I am wrong but wouldn't the most significant damage occur to New Orleans if the eye passes SW of the city? With the right front quadrant pulling the surge westward into Lake Pontchartrain. I remember that with Katrina, but that was N-ward moving hurricane and this one *seems to be* due northwest. **Standard model discrepancies apply
 
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